Hunter Henry

Henry regressed in his second season with the Patriots as the team’s entire offense took a step back. After totaling nine touchdowns and 17 red-zone targets in 2021, he had just two and seven in 2022. Henry played at least 70 percent of snaps in 12 of 17 games last season, catching 41 of 59 targets for 509 yards to top the 500-yard threshold for a fourth consecutive campaign. The Patriots traded fellow tight end Jonnu Smith to Atlanta in March, but they quickly replaced him with Mike Gesicki, who is more of a threat to take snaps from Henry in passing situations. Henry could become even more TD-dependent, which doesn't come with much upside given that the Patriots are set to run it back with QB Mac Jones after he threw only 14 TD passes last year.

New England revamped its tight end room ahead of last season with lucrative contracts for Henry and Jonnu Smith. The money was well spent on Henry, who played every game for the first time in six seasons, after missing 25 of 80 games in his first five campaigns. Henry also emerged as the far more effective pass catcher. The former Charger narrowly reached the 50- catch and 600-yard thresholds for a third consecutive season, but the main attraction was a career-high nine touchdown receptions, which tied for the league lead among tight ends. Henry caught eight of 17 red-zone targets from rookie quarterback Mac Jones last season and scored on all eight, while Smith caught five of 10 and scored on one. The 6-5 Henry should remain a key red-zone target for the risk-averse Jones, but there is also a chance Smith sees more work near the goal line at Henry’s expense. Considering those factors, Henry might not go much beyond his 2021 production, as he would need a lot more targets between the 20s to offset the likely regression in the red zone. The Patriots tried to improve their wide receiver corps this offseason by trading for DeVante Parker, but they’ll still feature two-TE sets more than most teams.

Henry is shaping up as this generation's Jared Cook, doing just enough each season to convince us the breakout will happen next year. The 26-year-old saw a career-high 93 targets in 2020, his fifth year in the NFL, but the long-awaited volume boost was partially cancelled out by career lows in catch rate and YPT. At a top-heavy TE position, that was enough to make Henry a solid starter - at least in PPR leagues - until he missed the final two weeks of the season on the COVID-19 list. Still, it felt like a missed opportunity, given that rookie QB Justin Herbert threw for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns in 15 games. Henry isn't likely to be in an offense with that type of passing volume or proficiency in 2021, having signed with a Patriots team that will roll with rookie first-rounder Mac Jones at QB. There's also the matter of Henry sharing snaps and targets with fellow high-priced offseason acquisition Jonnu Smith, who had a career-high 448 yards and eight touchdowns last season with Tennessee.

It always seems to be one thing or another with Henry, who, for all his talent and per-target efficiency, still hasn't finished a season higher than ninth in TE fantasy scoring. He managed career highs for every counting stat besides TDs last year, but the final product nonetheless felt like a disappointment, as he missed four games early in the season and averaged 33 yards in five December appearances. In between, Henry gave us a glimpse of the good stuff, averaging 5.8 catches, 71.2 yards and 0.5 TDs in October and November. His quiet December included just 22 targets, fifth on the team behind Keenan Allen (42), Austin Ekeler (34), Melvin Gordon (29) and Mike Williams (28). Gordon is now out of the picture, but the other three are still around, with Allen and Ekeler being the safe bets for steady volume. It helps that the Chargers have shaky depth at both WR and TE, but even a narrow target distribution won't allow four pass catchers to put up big numbers if quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Tyrod Taylor don't play well. Henry's decision to sign a franchise tag in April at least suggests there won't be any thought given to a contract holdout, though he presumably would've preferred a long-term deal.

Henry has been the Waiting for Godot (or Waiting for Guffman, if you prefer) tight end in recent years, as pundits and owners have been eagerly anticipating what he might do without Antonio Gates to chew up so many targets and scoring-area looks. Alas, Hunter's 2018 season was ruined by an ACL tear, though he did get back on the field for the playoff loss to New England. Henry's surprising TE10 season as a rookie was driven by an unsustainable touchdown rate (eight on just 36 catches). His 2017 stat shape was more traditional and still highly efficient, though 62 targets is an awfully low number for someone with his size and speed. Healthy and engaged, Henry could be a three-down force and a Pro Bowler. If there's a chunk of rust to his game, or other talents in Los Angeles ascend, he could wind up being a depth player or even a dropped player in the fantasy world. Some answers require a shrewd eye and a summer clipboard.

Henry was merely the TE13 in standard scoring leagues last season, despite four games missed and the presence of Antonio Gates. In 2018, It looked like we would finally get to see what Henry can do without Gates getting in the way. Alas, the 23-year-old tore his ACL in May during OTAs, thus stalling his emergence as the Chargers' undisputed go-to tight end. Assuming a full recovery, Henry's career stats (81-1057-12) probably illustrate what he could do at his peak in a few seasons. That production came on a modest 115 targets, the number you'd expect a top-notch tight end to receive. The timing of Henry's injury should allow him to be healthy in advance of the 2019 campaign, at which point he'll look to pick up where he left off.

It's not difficult to build positive or negative narratives with Henry; it's just a matter of how you want to play it. Some fantasy owners will draft him aggressively this year, while others will run in the other direction. Rookie tight ends are generally hands-off investments, but Henry broke a lot of the rules last year. He became the third rookie tight end to grab at least eight touchdown catches (joining Junior Miller and Rob Gronkowski), somehow doing this on just 53 targets. It was a little surprising to see a productive player get this little opportunity, but the learning curve has to be respected. Then again, the Chargers were playing without a host of key pass catchers, including Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. If you're in the pro-Henry camp, you figure his opportunity share has to go up, which will make up for a likely drop in efficiency. The faders will note the presence of TE Antonio Gates, back for his age-37 season. The Bolts also drafted WR Mike Williams in the first round, and Allen could be a factor after playing just one game last year. We should have a much clearer sense of Henry's value in August, when team roles and pecking orders become clear. It's realistic that he could have a better real-life season, and a busier one, but still fall short of last year's touchdown count.

Even with the loss of Ladarius Green, Henry, the consensus top tight end in the 2016 NFL Draft, likely won't contribute with the Chargers immediately considering the presence of Antonio Gates and free agent addition Jeff Cumberland. However, second round picks tend to find their way onto the field sooner rather than later, and considering Gates isn't getting any younger (35 years old) and Cumberland is somewhat limited, Henry's value could grow as the season unfolds, making him an especially intriguing option in keeper and dynasty league formats.