The fantasy football offseason is essentially a months-long stock market. Player values rise and fall as coaching changes happen, depth charts shift and news breaks across the league. This week, we'll look how fantasy values for quarterbacks and running backs changed in free agency.
If you're playing best ball fantasy football, staying ahead of the market is critical. Missing early value shifts can cost you league-winning upside. If you've missed any previous installments of this series, you can find them here.
Quarterback
Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins
Willis averaged a rushing touchdown per start during his time in Green Bay. In four appearances during the 2025 season, he completed 85.7 percent of his throws, rushed for 123 yards and accounted for four total touchdowns. The rushing floor alone makes him a viable fantasy quarterback.
The concern is everything around him. Miami's offensive line graded poorly last season and the receiving corps behind Jaylen Waddle needs significant upgrades. When the Dolphins trail and Willis is forced to win with his arm, the limitations will surface. He averaged just 18 pass attempts per start in Green Bay, which tells you how coaches have preferred to use him.
Still, Bobby Slowik's Shanahan-style offense creates natural play-action opportunities off Willis' mobility. Pairing him with De'Von Achane gives defenses two running threats to account for on every snap.
Willis profiles as a top-12 fantasy quarterback with upside as a full-time starter. The passing game has a hard ceiling, but fantasy rewards points, not aesthetics. The rushing floor covers a lot of flaws.
Tua Tagovailoa, Atlanta Falcons
Tagovailoa's situation in Atlanta is more nuanced than it appears on the surface. He had the fifth-highest QBR in the NFL from 2022-2023 before dropping to 25th the last two seasons. His 15 interceptions in 2025 got him benched for the final three games in Miami.
However, this signing is less about Tagovailoa competing for a starting job and more about insurance. Michael Penix Jr. is recovering from a torn ACL and the Falcons need a capable backup in case Penix isn't ready for Week 1 or struggles early in the season.
The interesting wrinkle is that Tagovailoa and Penix are polar opposites as passers. Penix is a deep-ball thrower with legitimate arm talent. Tagovailoa operates almost exclusively in the short and intermediate areas with a weaker arm. Kevin Stefanski will essentially be managing two different offenses depending on which quarterback is on the field.
Tagovailoa does have one thing working in his favor: he's 8-4 in his career playing indoors, and Atlanta plays in a dome. The weapons around him are legitimate with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
If Tagovailoa ends up starting, the supporting cast gives him a realistic path to top-20 production. But until we know whether Penix is healthy and how Stefanski plans to divide the reps, Tagovailoa is an end-of-draft flier in superflex formats and not an option in single-quarterback leagues.
Running Back
Kenneth Walker, Kansas City Chiefs
This is the slam-dunk landing spot of free agency.
Walker's efficiency metrics have always been elite. He posted a 4.6 yards-per-carry average and a 23 percent broken tackle rate during his final season in Seattle. His five regular-season touchdowns were artificially suppressed by Zack Charbonnet stealing goal-line work. When Charbonnet went down with an ACL injury in the playoffs, Walker exploded for four touchdowns in three games and earned Super Bowl MVP.
I've been skeptical of Walker for years because of his outside-only rushing profile. He needs edge opportunities to produce consistently, and most offenses can't guarantee that. Kansas City is the one place that changes the equation entirely. Defenses will always prioritize stopping Patrick Mahomes and the passing game first, which means lighter boxes and cleaner edges for Walker on a weekly basis.
With Eric Bieniemy back calling plays, Isiah Pacheco gone and Kareem Hunt no longer on the roster, Walker steps into an uncontested lead role. The only factor keeping this from a perfect grade is Mahomes' ACL recovery timeline. If Mahomes is healthy for Week 1, Walker is a top-10 fantasy running back without question.
Travis Etienne, New Orleans Saints
Etienne finished as a top-6 fantasy running back last season with 1,399 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns. Those numbers look elite on paper, but the underlying production tells a different story.
After Week 4, Etienne never exceeded 84 rushing yards in a single game despite regularly receiving at least 15 carries. His broken-tackle rate ranked in the 45th percentile, suggesting the touchdown volume was doing most of the heavy lifting.
Now he moves to New Orleans, where the offensive line ranked 26th in adjusted line yards with a D-minus run blocking grade last season. That's a meaningful downgrade from Jacksonville's blocking.
The biggest variable is Alvin Kamara. He remains on the Saints' roster with only $3 million in guaranteed money. If New Orleans releases or trades Kamara, Etienne steps into a high-volume role in Kellen Moore's offense with legitimate receiving work built in. That's an RB2 with upside.
If Kamara stays, the passing-down work gets split and Etienne's PPR value takes a significant hit. He becomes an RB3 in that scenario. Monitor the Kamara situation daily before committing to Etienne at his current ADP.
Rico Dowdle, Pittsburgh Steelers
Dowdle rushed for 1,076 yards last season in Carolina, but 42 percent of that production came in two games. In his final nine contests, he averaged 3.2 yards per carry and just 10 PPR points per game. The late-season fade was a continuation of the same pattern from 2024.
In Pittsburgh, Dowdle projects as the 1B to Jaylen Warren's 1A. Mike McCarthy's offense will feature both backs, but Warren has established himself as the primary option and there's nothing in Dowdle's profile that suggests he'll change that pecking order.
Dowdle's receiving ability gives him some standalone floor in PPR formats, but he's not someone I'm targeting as anything more than a late-round depth piece. If Warren misses time, Dowdle becomes interesting as a volume play behind Pittsburgh's offensive line. Otherwise, he's a bench stash.
Tyler Allgeier, Arizona Cardinals
Allgeier scored eight touchdowns on 143 carries with the Falcons last season. That sounds productive until you see the 3.6 yards-per-carry average underneath it. His 5.6 percent touchdown rate is unsustainable, and now the context that created those touchdowns, subbing for Bijan Robinson and punching the ball in at the goal line, no longer exists.
In Arizona, Allgeier walks into a three-way committee. James Conner restructured his contract to return for 2026 despite playing just three games last season. Trey Benson was a third-round pick who the Cardinals clearly view as part of their future, even after two trips to injured reserve.
The goal-line work that drove Allgeier's fantasy value in Atlanta will be split three ways. The only scenario where he has standalone value is if both Conner and Benson miss significant time, and banking on two injuries ahead of you is a lottery ticket, not a draft strategy.
Avoid Allgeier at any meaningful ADP.
Kenneth Gainwell, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gainwell's receiving production in Pittsburgh was legitimate. He caught 73 passes with an 85.9 percent catch rate, showing real value as a pass-catching back. However, four of his eight touchdowns came in just two games when Jaylen Warren was injured. Strip those out and Gainwell averaged 23 rushing yards per game.
In Tampa Bay, Gainwell steps into the role Rachaad White vacated. White posted 572 yards and four touchdowns last season, but every one of those touchdowns came during Bucky Irving's eight-game absence. That tells you everything about the standalone value of the backup role in this offense.
Irving is the clear lead back. At 195 pounds with shoulder and foot injuries that cost him seven games last year, there's a real durability concern. If Irving goes down again, Gainwell's receiving ability in Zac Robinson's offense could produce legitimate PPR value.
Draft Gainwell as a late-round handcuff if you own Irving. He's one of the better insurance policies in fantasy football. Don't overdraft if the market views Gainwell to have standalone value. As a standalone asset, the weekly ceiling is too low to roster.
J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos
Dobbins returns to Denver on a two-year deal after an encouraging but abbreviated 2025 campaign. Before suffering a season-ending foot injury, Dobbins averaged 77.2 rushing yards per game, which ranked sixth in the NFL at the time. The efficiency was real and Sean Payton's offense clearly suited his skill set.
The problem is the injury history. This is Dobbins' fourth significant injury in five seasons. The torn ACL, the Achilles, the knee scope and now the foot have created a pattern that's impossible to ignore. At some point, availability becomes a skill, and Dobbins hasn't demonstrated it consistently.
When he's on the field, the talent is evident. The Broncos' commitment to bringing him back on a multi-year deal suggests they believe in the player. But for fantasy purposes, Dobbins is a late-round dart throw only. Draft him understanding that the floor is zero games played, and the ceiling requires health we haven't seen from him in years.
Isiah Pacheco, Detroit Lions
Pacheco's 2025 season raised real concerns about his trajectory. He rushed for 462 yards and one touchdown on 118 carries, posting a broken tackle rate in the 14th percentile and yards after contact in the 37th percentile. He also missed four games with a knee injury, marking back-to-back seasons shortened by lower-body injuries following his 2024 fibula fracture.
The physical running style that made Pacheco valuable in Kansas City appears to be breaking him down. He's 26 years old with the durability profile of a much older back.
In Detroit, he steps into the David Montgomery role as the early down and goal-line complement to Jahmyr Gibbs. However, this isn't the same Lions offensive line from two years ago. LT Taylor Decker is gone. The interior line has significant questions. The dominant run-blocking unit that powered Detroit's ground game has eroded considerably.
Gibbs was a monster from scrimmage with 16 touchdowns last season as the clear lead back. That hierarchy isn't changing. Pacheco projects as a 6-10 touch per game complement with occasional goal-line work behind a declining offensive line.
Draft Pacheco as a late-round Gibbs handcuff and nothing more. The efficiency decline, the injury history and the offensive line downgrade create a combination that limits his standalone fantasy ceiling.
Conclusion
The first two days of free agency have significantly reshaped the running back landscape. Walker landing in Kansas City is the headliner, but monitoring the Kamara-Etienne dynamic in New Orleans and the Pacheco-Gibbs split in Detroit will be critical as draft season approaches. At quarterback, Willis' rushing floor makes him one of the more interesting values in fantasy, while Tagovailoa's role in Atlanta remains unclear until we get clarity on Penix's health. For the latest depth chart updates and player movement, be sure to visit RotoWire's NFL depth charts.
