Every offseason move matters for fantasy football. Coaching changes, free-agent departures, depth-chart shifts and injury recoveries reshape how we should value players heading into fantasy draft season.
In this edition of the NFL Barometer, we're identifying quarterbacks whose value has taken a hit this offseason. Whether it's lost weapons, coaching downgrades or injury concerns, these signal-callers are being drafted higher than their situations warrant.
If you're building your draft board, pair this with RotoWire's quarterback rankings to see where these players are landing.
If you've missed any previous installments of this series, you can find them here.
Quarterback Downgrades
Jalen Hurts, Eagles
Hurts posted a career-high 25 passing touchdowns last year despite just 454 pass attempts. The expected trade of A.J. Brown on or after June 1 likely will have a significant negative impact on Hurts.
Brown was the one receiver on the team who had the physicality to battle defenders on downfield and end-zone passes. With DeVonta Smith and rookie Makai Lemon the expected top receivers on the team, Hurts will have two smaller-bodied receivers leading the pack. For a passer who isn't the most accurate, Hurts' margin for error is small.
After Philadelphia unexpectedly struggled on the offensive line, the team made no significant moves to address the decline, aside from hiring a new line coach. Hurts averaged 695 yards and 13 touchdowns as a runner from 2021-2024 before falling to 421 yards and eight rushing scores last year.
Hurts is being drafted as QB6, but the offseason changes make it difficult to project him any better than QB10. He'll be a fade for me in drafts. Use RotoWire's ADP tracker to monitor whether the market starts to correct.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Mahomes hasn't had more than 27 touchdown passes in a season since 2022. Yes, he's the best quarterback in the NFL, but he's far from a fantasy superstar. Last year, he padded his fantasy numbers with a career-high 422 rush yards and five touchdowns.
After last season, the Chiefs' passing attack needed changes. Instead, after parting ways with offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, they brought back Eric Bieniemy to take over the role he held from 2018-2022. Bieniemy may be a fine coach, but head coach Andy Reid likely will maintain the status quo in terms of offensive design and playcalling, hurting Mahomes' chances of having a big year.
The Chiefs also failed to make any real moves at wide receiver, where they definitely needed help. Don't expect Mahomes to match last year's rushing totals, as he's recovering from a late-season ACL and LCL injury. Even at a QB13 price, it's hard to envision Mahomes being top 15 at his position.
Malik Willis, Dolphins
We all love mobile quarterbacks, as they've long been a cheat code in fantasy football. In three starts in two years with the Packers, Willis averaged 58 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Although those are insanely good rushing numbers, the Packers' coaching staff limited Willis to 18 pass attempts per game.
It was clear the team didn't want to put the passing attack on Willis' shoulders. Now in Miami, expect a team with a terrible defense to leave the offense playing from deficits most weeks. That's normally great for fantasy.
The problem? The Dolphins have one of the weakest receiving corps in the league. Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell and Malik Washington top the wideout depth chart, with rookies Caleb Douglas (third round), Chris Bell (third round) and Kevin Coleman (fifth round) in the mix. And Bell is coming off an ACL injury.
If defenses have no respect for the passing attack, it's likely teams will overload the box to keep De'Von Achane and Willis from dominating on the ground. If there's no room to run, Willis will hurt fantasy teams.
Even at a low cost of QB22, Willis won't pay off.
Sam Darnold, Seahawks
Darnold was a decent fantasy producer the last two years. He tossed 35 touchdown passes with Vikings in 2024 and still threw 25 last year with the Seahawks in a run-first offense. He also averaged 4,184 passing yards the last two years.
I'm worried about serious decline this year. Darnold thrived under the play calling of Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota and Klint Kubiak in Seattle. He now gets former 49ers TE coach Brian Fleury, who has never called plays at the NFL level.
Darnold is talented, but he must have incredible coaching and play design to be successful. Seattle has a decent but not excellent offensive line, with an expected downgrade at coach.
With Kenneth Walker gone and Zach Charbonnet recovering from a January ACL injury, it's far from a guarantee that Jadarian Price can keep the rushing attack on schedule. That potentially puts more on Darnold's shoulders, which is not optimal. Darnold is being drafted as a low-end QB2 in superflex leagues, but I see him closer to the QB28 range.
The Final Word
The common thread with all four of these quarterbacks is that the situations deteriorated more than the market has priced in. Hurts is losing his best weapon and running behind a line that got worse. Mahomes has a capped ceiling with no receiver help and a knee that limits the rushing upside he leaned on last year.
Willis landed in what looks like a trap on paper. The rushing ability is real, but the lack of receiving talent gives defenses a blueprint to shut him down. Darnold is the quietest fade of the group, but a coaching downgrade for a quarterback who needs elite play design is a serious concern.
If there's one takeaway from this installment, it's that draft cost doesn't equal value. Hurts at QB6 is the most dangerous mismatch between price and outlook.
Stay on top of these values as draft season heats up with updated fantasy news and RotoWire's NFL depth charts.
