Fantasy football managers rely heavily on fantasy football rankings to make their draft picks, prioritize waiver selections and decide on who to start or sit every week. Given their importance, you may wonder, just how are fantasy football rankings created?
We will walk you through the process that is used to create the RotoWire rankings. This includes coverage of the role statistics play in the RotoWire fantasy football projections, details on how predictive models refine player value, why team context and depth chart analysis matter, how fantasy football rankings are adjusted per league format and scoring system, and highlight how combining data with expert insight and market trends can set our fantasy football rankings apart from the competition.
Role of Statistical Projections in Rankings
Statistical projections are built using historical performance, usage trends and efficiency data. This data relies heavily on projected volume in key areas such as targets, carries and red-zone usage. These stat areas are the proverbial crown jewels of fantasy scoring, which means that any changes to these numbers will have an outsized impact on a player's place on a fantasy football cheat sheet.
"Projections are one of the biggest drivers of rankings," RotoWire fantasy football expert Paul Mammino said. "This is because the name of the game is scoring points and we want players who project for more points. This should be the initial basis point for all rankings."
How Predictive Models Refine Player Value
The most advanced predictive models, such as the ones that are available through the RotoWire fantasy football draft kit, incorporate elements such as strength of schedule, pace of play, regression indicators and injury probability.
Any of these factors can have an outsized impact on a player's fantasy football ADP, so these models are fine-tuned to account for any changes. This includes providing estimations for both floor and ceiling projections.
"Predictive models can help us to parse the upside between similarly projected players. For example, in fantasy football the biggest driver of point scoring is TDs," Mammino said. "A predictive model can help us to determine, based on usage, which players are more likely to score TDs. When two players have a similar median projection, we typically want to begin taking upside into account in the final rankings."
Why Team Context and Depth Chart Analysis Matter
All of the numbers in the world are worth little if they don't take into account team context. This includes items such as coaching changes, offensive scheme and quarterback play. It's also crucial to display mastery of how NFL depth charts can influence final rankings. Those depth charts define opportunity availability for players, which often matters more than pure talent in season-long fantasy football. You can find up to the minute NFL depth chart information as part of your subscription to RotoWire.
"While projections are the key driver, we need to understand they are a median and there (are) a range of outcomes," Mammino said. "Team context and depth charts can help us to properly parse through those outcomes. A better offense may mean that the third wide receiver on a given team has a greater chance of exceeding his median and thus should be ranked higher than the WR3 for a worse offense.
"Similarly, the backup running back behind an oft injured or aging lead back may be ranked higher than the one behind a younger back with no injury history."
Adjusting Rankings for League Format and Scoring
Fantasy football rankings do not live in a vacuum. They are instead customized for PPR, half-PPR, standard, Superflex, Best Ball and dynasty formats. This customization should be an essential part of any successful manager's fantasy football draft strategy.
This is true for every position, but is even more impactful at the wide receiver, tight end and running back positions. The positional value shifts here are hugely dependent on roster settings and scoring rules. For instance, the running back who you might take in the first round of a non-PPR RotoWire fantasy football mock draft might fall to Round 2 in another league in a full PPR draft. This also applies to 2QB leagues or leagues that have hybrid WR/TE positions.
Combining Data with Expert Insight and Market Trends
You can get a good set of rankings with numbers alone, but you can take those rankings to the next level by incorporating things such as expert evaluation, NFL injury report updates and fantasy football ADP trends into the process. Layering these insights into a rankings build can be the boost that moves one set of rankings ahead of the rest.
These rankings should also analyze and reflect real draft day behavior. A fantasy manager needs to know which players are likely to be available in later rounds and which ones need to be selected in an upcoming round. This information is the proverbial holy grail on draft day and the fantasy managers who have it are much more likely to be hoisting a championship trophy (and the bragging rights that go along with it).
