Every offseason move matters for fantasy football. Coaching changes, free agent departures, depth chart shifts and injury recoveries reshape how we should value players heading into draft season.
In this edition of the NFL Barometer, we'll focus on tight ends whose value should climb after offseason events. Departures at the position, reduced target competition and shifting offensive roles have created openings the market hasn't fully priced in. If you're building your draft board, pair this with RotoWire's running back rankings to see where these players are landing.
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Tight End Upgrades
Travis Kelce, Chiefs
In 2023, Kelce began his decline phase. Instead of averaging 1,200 yards per season as he did 2016-2022, he's settled into the 850-yard range. And after averaging almost 10 touchdowns per season in that span, he's since down to about four per season. Entering his 14th season, Kelce turns 37 in October and further decline could arrive at any time.
Still, Kelce could be in a better situation this season than he was last year.
The Chiefs were often accused of coasting through the regular season the last few years, waiting until the playoffs to turn it on. True or not, after missing the playoffs last year, they no longer have the luxury of taking a playoff berth for granted. The defense lost both starting cornerbacks this offseason, and game script may force the team to raise offensive volume.
Patrick Mahomes, who often bailed out the team with his legs last season, is coming off a serious knee injury, which means less running and more easy throws to avoid the pass rush. Look for Kelce to be a high-volume PPR asset.
Kelce's ADP is outside the top 12 among tight ends, making him a great value pick.
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Dallas Goedert, Eagles
On one hand, Goedert is looking at serious touchdown regression. After scoring 12 times 2021-2024, the tight end hit paydirt 11 times last year. So why is his value on the rise?
With A.J. Brown no longer on the team, the Eagles lack a pass catcher with physicality. DeVonta Smith might be 170 pounds while Makai Lemon weighs less than 200. Those wide receivers should be productive, but when the Eagles need someone to make big catches in traffic and in the red zone, Goedert likely will be the preferred option for Jalen Hurts.
Goedert, whose ADP is TE15, could surpass his career high of 60 catches, making him a strong PPR option.
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Mark Andrews, Ravens
Despite playing all 17 games for the second year in a row, Andrews posted a career-low 422 yards last season. And for the second year in a row, Andrews got only about four targets per game, his fewest since his rookie year.
With Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar no longer with the team, Andrews likely will see a bump in targets. Likely swiped 194 targets the last four years, and he and Kolar combined for nearly two targets a game last season.
Those could go to Andrews this season. His only competition for tight end targets is blocking specialist Durham Smythe and a pair of rookies taken in the fourth and fifth round of this year's draft (Matthew Hibner and Josh Cuevas).
Andrews' struggles last season also were related to Lamar Jackson's injury-plagued season. Jackson is healthy entering training camp, and he and Andrews should continue to build on their already great chemistry.
Taking a shot on Andrews at his TE14 price is a low-risk gamble.
Brenton Strange, Jaguars
Strange finished 2025 on a high note. In the last seven games, he averaged five targets and 48 yards with three touchdowns.
The Jaguars added blocking tight end Nate Boerkircher in the draft, so Strange should be freed up to run more routes, and Trevor Lawrence has proven to be at his best when throwing to the middle of the field.
Coach Liam Coen seemed very aware of Lawrence's strengths during the second half of last season. Look for Strange to be a big part of the Jacksonville passing attack. Drafting him near TE20 could result in a borderline TE1 season.
The Final Word
The tight end position is thin enough that even small edges matter, and all four of these players have paths to outperforming their draft cost. Kelce may be in decline, but the Chiefs' offensive volume is set to rise, and Mahomes will lean on easy throws. That's a recipe for PPR production.
Goedert is the red-zone beneficiary of the A.J. Brown departure. Andrews has the clearest path to a target spike with both Likely and Kolar gone.
Strange is the deep sleeper with a coaching staff that appears ready to unleash him as a pass catcher.
If there's one takeaway from this installment, it's that tight end value is driven by opportunity, and each of these players is set to see more of it. Andrews at TE14 is the best combination of upside and discount in this group.
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