Best Ball ADP Analysis: Emeka Egbuka & Jaylen Waddle Surging in July

With training camp on the horizon, we've reached the end of the slowest period of the year for NFL news. Not much has happened over the last month, to be frank, but that doesn't mean best ball ADPs have been static.

Below we'll take a look at what happened between mid-June and mid-July, homing in on the biggest changes to NFL best ball ADPs. Some of what we see can be traced back to news blurbs, while other stuff may just be organic momentum or a result of podcast/twitter hype.

ADP Rising ⬆️

The third and fourth columns show ADPs from mid-July and mid-June, respectively. The second column shows the difference between July ADP and June ADP. The first column shows the percentage difference relative to the player's original ADP (in June). The table is sorted by that first column (Δ%).

• RB Ashton Jeanty's mid-summer momentum is mostly happening on Drafters, where the total-points format encourages swinging for the fences. Granted, Jeanty was already going earlier on Drafters (relative to UD, DK, FFPC, etc.), so I'm not sure what the recent impetus is.
  • I contributed to this trend, admittedly, though I've recently been taking more Jonathan Taylor now that he's cheaper than Jeanty on Drafters.
• WR Emeka Egbuka is now solidly inside the third round, after being more of a fourth-round pick or 3/4 turn guy the past few months. There's no specific news nugget or report driving it, but I have seen optimism on X about new Bucs offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, whose offenses in Atlanta the past two years consolidated volume around 2-3 players. Granted, the Falcons had clear stars and horrible skill-position depth. Tampa Bay's situation is very different, but you don't have to squint to see the breakout case for Egbuka. 
  • High-stakes redraft players are even more bullish on Egbuka; he's at ADP 30 on NFFC over the past month, nestled between Josh Allen and Zay Flowers.
• WR Jaylen Waddle is basically the same story as Egbuka, with delayed breakout optimism that can't really be traced to any specific summer event. And it's also mirrored in high-stakes leagues, with his NFFC ADP up to 43 (it was at 47 over the previous month).
• RB Jordan Mason and RB Jaydon Blue were the subject of positive reports in late June. In Mason's case, however, it was just a beat writer (Matthew Coller) opining on something that many had already assumed -- the possibility of Mason displacing Aaron Jones as Minnesota's lead runner.
  • In Blue's case, the puff piece at least came with positive quotes from Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer, who said the second-year RB is "football brilliant" and has shown a "night and day" difference compared to last offseason. It sounds like Blue is settling in nicely and asserting himself as the favorite for the No. 2 RB job, ahead of Malik Davis and Phil Mafah. Still, that's a competition, not a settled matter. 

ADP Falling⬇️

The third and fourth columns show ADPs from mid-July and mid-June, respectively. The second column shows the difference between July ADP and June ADP. The first column shows the percentage difference relative to the player's original ADP (in June). The table is sorted by that first column (Δ%).

• TE Trey McBride has been one of the most widely discussed players all offseason. At this price, he can afford to lose a decent chunk of his 2025 production and still be a good pick. But I think he'll lose more than a decent chunk and fall solidly behind Brock Bowers (possibly Colston Loveland as well).
• RB Travis Etienne just isn't a popular man in fantasy world lately, and recent news of Alvin Kamara's contract restructure means ETN's ADP will keep falling. Etienne is already down two spots in the brief time since Kamara reached an agreement with the Saints.

• RB Nicholas Singleton was already ranked low enough that even a minor news blurb could set him back by a round. To that end, Titans coach Robert Saleh made favorable comments toward Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears (see below) in mid-June. It was before our first ADP pull above (June 22), but this wouldn't be the first time we saw a delayed reaction.
  • I haven't taken him much recently, but Singleton is a reasonable end-game pick. Remember that Pollard and Spears are both in-season trade candidates. Actually, they may attract interest before then.
• If you've been paying attention to NFL news, you probably don't need me to explain Brandon Aiyuk's ADP drop. The short version is that his social-media posts are raising doubt that he'll play at all this year (or ever again?).