This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
Los Angeles Rams 
(-4.5) (-108) at Cincinnati Bengals 
I hate that this is the side I'm choosing, but my numbers and analysis says it is an easy choice. Let's start with coaching. As you know, I'm hardly a Sean McVay guy, but he's been here before and you have to think he has learned from his first experience against New England. Like most of his team, Zac Taylor has never been in a spot this big. On the field, the story is much the same. The Rams are the more experienced and talented team overall and have been constructed for this moment. Their strength (D-line) matches up perfectly with Cincy's weakness on the O-line and Jalen Ramsey can and will be deployed to neutralize one of the Bengals' WR threats. I believe this will be a somewhat disjointed and ugly game in which the Rams gradually pull away. Matthew Stafford gets his title, 23-15.
Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (UNDER 48.5) (-108)
For many reasons laid out above, I see this game being a fast-moving game as both coaches play conservatively to avoid mistakes. I don't see a lot of explosive chunk plays occurring, which will contribute to the low total. UNDER 48.5 is my favorite bet of the Super Bowl.
Other Bets
Super Bowl LVI MVP (Von Miller) (+3900)
In a game I believe that will be dominated by the defense, I'm going to go with the guy I think has the chance to make the biggest splash. It took him a while to get acclimated to what the Rams do on defense, but it seems like his impact is gotten bigger and bigger as the playoffs have continued. Cincy as major O-line issues and their focus (rightfully so) will be stopping Aaron Donald from completely wrecking their gameplan from the inside out. That should leave Miller with plenty of chances for sacks and turnover creation. If the game goes as I think it will, Miller will have a real chance to take home the hardware at 39-1.
Total Sacks by Both Teams (OVER 5.5) (+100)
Clearly, from the thoughts above, I believe the Rams might be able to get to this number by themselves. However, I also think the Bengals will be able to generate pressure on Matt Stafford and rack up sacks as well. How many times did we see Pat Mahomes scramble to buy time only to find nobody open and be forced to do nothing in the AFC Championship? Now, apply that to a far less-mobile QB in Stafford and I believe we have a recipe to generate many sacks in this game.
Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards (UNDER 105.5) (-110)
Sticking with the defensive theme, it is interesting that the Bengals slot defender Mike Hilton is one of the highest-rated at his position by Pro Football Focus, and the numbers back it up. Cooper Kupp does the majority of his damage from the slot, so I expect this to be a fascinating matchup. 105.5 is an extraordinary number for mere mortals, but Kupp has proven to be anything but. However, I think Hilton will neutralize Kupp somewhat and make it a struggle. Certainly, this is a contrarian play, but with that comes significant value. Directly related to my thinking here is I believe Odell Beckham Jr. will have a big day for the Rams offense, so I would lean positively towards his props as well.
Thank you, all, for allowing me into your computer screens as a new edition to the RotoWire family. I'm looking very forward to next year and doing this for an entire season and beyond!
