Rankings are cool and all, but as any fellow fantasy nerd knows: Tier-based drafting is really where it's at. This is because — get this — sometimes us alleged fantasy experts can be wrong, so it's best to embrace this horrifying reality by grouping similarly ranked players into tiers instead of pretending like we're going to get every single individual ranking correct.
Cool? Cool: What follows are my preseason QB tiers along with some quick fun facts as well as one bigger picture question for each individual tier.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
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Tier 1: The Undisputed King of Fantasy
QB1 Josh Allen (consensus ADP QB1): The all-time leader in QB career fantasy points per game hasn't finished any worse than QB2 since 2020.
Question: Has Josh Allen paid off his early round price tag in the past?
Usually! We can get a good idea of this by looking at how often Allen has appeared on ESPN playoff rosters over the years:
2020: 50% (3rd among QBs, ADP QB10-82)
2021: 49% (2nd, ADP QB2-26)
2022: 58.6% (3rd, ADP QB1-21)
2023: 62.1% (1st, ADP QB2-20)
2024: 58.2% (2nd, ADP QB1-23)
2025: 57.5% (1st, ADP QB1-23)
That's a pretty great hit rate for a consistent Round 2-3 turn pick! And hey: It makes sense. That range of the draft usually consists of preseason RB2s and WR2s who could certainly work out (see: Smith-Njigba, Jaxon), but there's usually at least some reason for pause when looking at their profiles — not so much with Allen.
Here's the thing about Josh Allen's fantasy production: The Bills spam the tush push on the goal line as much as anyone outside of Philadelphia. And get this, they've actually posted a higher conversion rate of tush pushes (83.1% vs. 73.2%) than the Eagles the last two seasons. The impact in fantasy land can't be overstated: Jalen Hurts (97.6) and Allen (73.2) are the only two quarterbacks with even 30 fantasy points from rushes at the 1-yard line in this span. It's a weapon in their fantasy toolbelt that simply isn't available to anyone else at the position.
Josh Allen is a boat and the other Round 3 picks are mystery boxes. Sometimes you should just take the boat.
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Tier 2: Overall QB1 Upside is on the Table
QB2 Lamar Jackson (ADP QB2): Responsible for two (2019, 2024) of the position's top-6 all-time best seasons in fantasy points per game.
QB3 Jayden Daniels (ADP QB5): Joined Cam Newton, Justin Herbert, and Robert Griffin as the only rookie QBs to average north of 20 fantasy points per game.
QB4 Jalen Hurts (ADP QB6): 2025 (18.7) was the first season as a starter that Hurts failed to average at least 20 fantasy points per game.
Question: How important has rushing upside been to posting elite fantasy numbers?
We'll define elite as 20-plus fantasy points per game, something that has happened 59 times in the last decade.
Among this group of top-scoring signal-callers ...
- 19 (32%) cleared triple-digit carries in a season. More intriguingly, half of the top-20 overall scores featured QBs with 100-plus rush attempts.
- A little more than half (51%) averaged 4.5 rush attempts per game, good for a 17-game average of 77 carries.
- Only nine (15%) ran for less than 100 yards in a season. This group was exclusively made up of more elderly pocket passers — Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, and Matthew Stafford.
A quick look at the QB rush attempt leaderboard from RotoWire Projections reveals Jayden Daniels (124), Lamar Jackson (119) and Jalen Hurts (115) are expected to work as the league's most run-heavy quarterbacks in 2026. Note that the Eagles didn't run fewer tush pushes at the goal line overall last season; the problem was their offense simply got to the one-yard line less often than in past years.
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Tier 3: Great Real-Life QBs with Sky-High Fantasy Ceilings
QB5 Joe Burrow (ADP QB4): Averaged an elite 21.9 fantasy points per game each of the last two seasons that he's been fully healthy (2022, 2024).
QB6 Drake Maye (ADP QB3): Led the NFL in essentially every meaningful passing efficiency metric last season and now gets to play with a new-and-improved wide receiver room.
QB7 Justin Herbert (ADP QB9): Proven 22-plus fantasy point upside; Herbert could find himself in a VASTLY superior offensive environment thanks to a healthy offensive line and the addition of OC Mike McDaniel.
QB8 Caleb Williams (ADP QB7): The NFL's fastest QB was the QB7 in fantasy points per game in year one with coach Ben Johnson. What if Caleb starts hitting his layups?
QB9 Trevor Lawrence (ADP QB11): Nobody scored more fantasy points per game in Weeks 10-18 (23), but we probably shouldn't expect nine rushing touchdowns again.
QB10 Brock Purdy (ADP QB13): QB11, QB7, QB13 and most recently QB4 in fantasy points per game — here's to hoping Purdy's various elderly playmakers can stay healthy.
QB11 Dak Prescott (ADP QB10): The NFC's version of Joe Burrow. Nobody should be surprised if the Cowboys lead the NFL in scoring.
Question: Are the high-end QB1s cheaper than ever in fantasy land?
So far in Underdog Best Ball drafts: yes! Josh Allen is still being priced like Josh Allen, but the rest of QB2-8 options are largely much more affordable than in past years. This is also contributing to the QB9-plus range going earlier in drafts than ever.
Underdog QB overall ADP over the past five seasons.
Example: In 2022 the QB5 was going at pick 55. In 2026 they are going pick 67.
Basically, the really good QBs are cheaper than they've ever been, while the more mid-bad QBs are more expensive than they've ever been pic.twitter.com/zyx81fYkVz
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 2, 2026
It's a bit early to know whether we'll see this phenomenon apply in re-draft leagues where there isn't the same level of emphasis on getting 2-3 quarterbacks, but in best ball land it does present a newfound opportunity to get some of the game's highest-scoring quarterbacks at a cheaper price than ever.
Of course, this raises the question: Is the newfound pricing structure at QB warranted? Have we seen the upper-middle class of the position struggle to outpace the QB2 range in recent years?
Answer: Not really. The difference in fantasy points per game between the QB6 and QB12 (2.2 points) in 2025 was right in line with what we saw from 2021-2024. The QB1 vs. QB6 (1.8) and QB12 vs. QB18 (1.5) differences were lower than usual in 2025, but it hasn't been a steady trend.
All that said, if I had to put a single chip down on one of the involved options (at cost), it would be Mr. Justin Herbert. The 28-year-old just ran for a career-high 498 yards while navigating behind a hellaciously banged-up offensive line, something that should be rectified with the returns of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt in 2026. Throw in the newfound presence of wizard Mike McDaniel, who has continued the Shanahan way of making more with less at QB, and it sure feels like a massive MVP-level breakout could be on the way.
This potential reality sure seems to be more so reflected in early MVP betting odds than in fantasy ADP where Herbert comes in as the QB9.
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Tier 4: There's at Least *One* Red Flag
QB12 Jaxson Dart (ADP QB8): Only Josh Allen scored more fantasy points from rushing last season, but can Dart overcome an underwhelming group of pass-catchers and Matt Nagy's scheme?
QB13 Patrick Mahomes (ADP QB12): Renewed fantasy excellence in 2025 was almost entirely just thanks to career-high rushing numbers, which we probably shouldn't expect to persist coming off a torn ACL.
QB14 Bo Nix (ADP QB15): QB8 and QB11 fantasy finishes to start his career despite very underwhelming passing efficiency metrics. Hopefully Nix's recovery from his fourth (!) career ankle/foot surgery goes smoothly and the offense benefits from the newfound presence of Jaylen Waddle.
Question: Which QBs have the league's best and worst supporting casts?
I created a stat to encompass this very idea: Supporting Cast Rating! It's the rank of the combined average from every team's PFF rushing, receiving, run blocking and pass blocking grades — everything except passing. While not perfect in terms of QBs making an impact in the run game and blocking making up 50 percent of the equation, directionally it has relayed results that match what my eyes tell me.
The last five years the 49ers, Eagles, Ravens and Lions have been atop the league in this metric, while the Chargers, Jets, Texans and Giants have worked as the bottom-four squads.
NFL ranks in "Supporting Cast Rating" over the last five years
Supporting Cast Rating: Average team PFF grades in rushing, receiving, run blocking and pass blocking
Example: 49ers average five-year rank (3.6) gives them the best supporting cast, Giants (26) makes them the worst pic.twitter.com/9HNYnmfp0Z
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 28, 2026
This brings us to our Tier 4 QBs …
Jaxson Dart: The Giants' 19th-ranked supporting cast last season was actually an improvement from past years. And yet, it's tough to be too optimistic about the changes ahead of 2026. Both of the offense's top playmakers in Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers are coming off major season-ending injuries that could leave them at far less than 100 percent health during the early portions of the season, while the offensive coaching core consists of Matt Nagy, Greg Roman and *throws up in mouth* Brian Callahan. That said, this offense obviously wasn't exactly loaded with star power most of last season, and Dart still managed to dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge his way to 19.9 fantasy points per game (QB8!) after taking over in Week 4.
Patrick Mahomes: Kansas City's lack of juice at pretty much every skill position reared its ugly head in a major way in 2025, coming in at 18th in Supporting Cast Rating, and that feels generous. Fast forward to 2026 … and the only truly meaningful addition is Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker, who is awesome and everything, but can we really expect Mahomes to get back to pre-2023 fantasy heights just because of a more explosive run game? Maybe OC Eric Bienemy has some new tricks up his sleeves, but it's tough to be too hyped about the upside for a guy who posted borderline QB1 numbers in 2023 and 2024 before only booming in 2025 thanks to previously unforeseen rushing volume.
Bo Nix: Here is the real winner in terms of improved supporting cast. The decision to trade for Jaylen Waddle finally gives the Broncos the sort of lid-lifter capable of consistently attracting attention from secondaries. This should greatly help a passing game that hasn't been able to hit the deep ball: Denver has completed just 12 of 67 passes thrown 30-plus yards downfield the last two seasons — that 17.9 percent catch rate is second lowest in the NFL. Then again, Nix is coming off another ankle surgery and isn't necessarily guaranteed to be as fleet-footed as normal. The offensive roster is better … but will the star of the show be in a position to take advantage?
Tier 5: The premier pocket passers
QB15 Matthew Stafford (ADP QB14): At the risk of being the boy who cried regression: All 23 QBs to post a touchdown rate of at least 7 percent saw their mark fall the following season. Stafford's was 7.7 percent last season.
QB16 Jared Goff (ADP QB16): Leads the NFL in passing touchdowns since 2022. Goff has ripped off three consecutive seasons with at least 4,500 passing yards. The rest of the NFL has *six* combined.
Question: Is the idea that pocket passers don't possess a ton of fantasy upside true?
On the one hand, our previous study showed that many of the top-performing QBs from the past decade possessed at least some level of rushing upside.
On the other hand, a look at the leaderboard for most top-5 weekly finishes during the last two seasons sure seems to reveal that some of the league's pocket-passing uncs still got it.
Most Top-5 Weekly Fantasy Finishes Among QBs 2024-25:
Lamar Jackson - 12
Josh Allen - 11
Jalen Hurts - 10
Joe Burrow - 9
Jared Goff - 8
Matthew Stafford - 8
Patrick Mahomes - 8
Baker Mayfield - 8
Caleb Williams - 8
While history tells us both QBs could see their quality touchdown rates regress, we're also looking at two loaded offenses that have earned the benefit of the doubt the last decade. All things considered: having true late-round options like this and our next tier make me VERY intrigued with waiting as long as possible to get a QB in re-draft land this year.
Tier 6: Run Forest Run!
QB17 Kyler Murray (ADP QB20): Last season, Murray actually averaged his most rushing yards per game (34.6) since his ACL injury. This is still a dangerous man in the open field.
QB18 Malik Willis (ADP QB21): Everyone knows Willis can run, but get this: small-sample size be damned, Willis leads the NFL in EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expected the last two seasons.
Question: How good have high-volume dual-threat QBs been in fantasy land?
Pretty, pretty, pretty good. In fact, of 28 QBs with at least 100 rush attempts, 26 (93%!) managed to post top-12 fantasy numbers on a per-game basis. Notice that last part? Per game! I'm not even doing the lame fantasy analyst move where you use total numbers to try to prove the biased agenda. Look at this list!
Fantasy points per game + position rank for all 28 QBs with 100+ rush attempts in a season over the last 10 years pic.twitter.com/DEJl0igUjA
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 2, 2026
Malik Willis is one of just six QBs projected to clear 100 rush attempts next season. The man has the goods as a rusher. Could the Dolphins' piss-poor offensive environment be enough to prevent Willis from joining the top-12 club? Absolutely, but hey, he's not even priced inside the position's top-20 options! I totally get preferring to draft a higher-end real-life QB at a slight year-over-year discount like Justin Herbert or Caleb Williams, but Willis should be THE priority late-round dart for drafters who missed the earlier crop of options.
Kyler's projection is a bit lower at 71. This isn't egregious — he only had 78 in 17 games in 2024 — but that was also his first full season back from his 2022 ACL injury, and his 17-game pace last year was good for 99. It's been a minute since Murray has been at his best, though we've still seen some solid fantasy heights anyway. Kyler's five top-5 fantasy weeks the last two seasons are as many as guys like Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence. There's at least some risk that the leash is short and J.J. McCarthy gets the call if the offense is sputtering, but like with Willis, the price is low enough to make Kyler a fantastic late-round dart.
Tier 7: We've Seen QB1 Upside Here Before
QB19 Jordan Love (ADP QB17): Third in EPA per dropback since taking over in 2023, though Love hasn't regained his first-season heights in fantasy land (QB5 in 2023, QB17 in 2024, QB20 in 2025).
QB20 Baker Mayfield (ADP QB18): Was playing at an MVP level before dealing with a LOT of injuries. His last three seasons look VERY similar to Joe Burrow.
QB21 Sam Darnold (ADP QB22): Joins Jared Goff as the only quarterbacks to throw for at least 4,000 yards each of the last two seasons.
QB22 Tyler Shough (ADP QB19): Ripped off four top-12 finishes during his final eight games of the season, and as a whole, he worked as the QB12 in fantasy points per game (17.2) after taking over under center Week 9.
QB23 C.J. Stroud (ADP QB23): Hilariously awful playoff performance distracts from the fact that Stroud (25 in October) did take some nice regular season steps forward as a passer last season.
Question: How often do LATE round QBs actually hit in fantasy football?
We're looking at low-end QB2 at this point, so let's go ahead and filter by QBs drafted outside the top-120 picks, AKA after the first 10 rounds of a 12-team fantasy draft, who still managed to post top-12 numbers at the position.
Some takeaways:
- 17 of the 60 (28.3%) top-12 QBs were drafted outside the top-100 picks during the last five seasons.
- Only four had a consensus ADP from ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper outside the top-200 players: 2022 Daniel Jones, 2023 C.J. Stroud, 2024 Bo Nix and 2024 Sam Darnold. The latter three players were either rookies or on a new team.
- Several of the other qualifiers — 2022 Kirk Cousins, 2022 Tua Tagovailoa, 2024 Baker Mayfield, 2025 Drake Maye, 2025 Trevor Lawrence — benefited mightily from an offensive-minded HC/OC coaching change.
- Most of the other hits were either veteran pocket passers who dialed back the clock a bit (2025 Stafford/Dak) or high-volume rushers who managed to put up some big numbers with their legs (2022 Jones/Fields).
Essentially, there have been 3-4 true late-round QB1 emerge per season during the last half decade, and they've often bucked public consensus by going to a new team or getting a new-and-improved play-caller. Often the new play-caller has coincided with being from the Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay tree — "McShanahan" as Ryan Heath excellently points out.
The only one among this group who could fit this mold is Baker Mayfield, though considering Zac Robinson in the same coaching tier as guys like Mike McDaniel and Liam Coen is probably a stretch. Still, Mayfield is just one year removed from a QB4 finish and certainly has MILLIONS of reasons to put his best foot forward in this contract year. There's enough to like about his overall offensive environment and potential volume for Baker to be my preferred late-round click out of this group.
Tier 8: At Least they Should Start 17 Games with Good Health
QB24 Bryce Young (ADP QB26): The dude can scoot, his deep-ball advanced metrics are up there with anyone and at his best, Young deploys Prestige-level magician ability when the play breaks down. And yet, he's never averaged even 14 fantasy points per game.
QB25 Daniel Jones (ADP QB27): Top-10 numbers in EPA per dropback and fantasy points per game in his first season with the Colts, but expecting top-tier performance after tearing his RIGHT (power leg) Achilles might be wishful thinking.
QB26 Cam Ward (ADP QB24): Not many QBs have a two-minute mixtape of highlights this cool, but basically every passing stat we care about tells us Ward was one of the league's worst QBs as a rookie.
QB27 Aaron Rodgers (ADP QB28): Rodgers remains capable of slinging the pill all over the field with the benefit of a clean pocket (and smelling salts); the problem is that the mobility is long gone, and the old man (understandably) isn't too keen on hanging onto the ball too long at the risk of taking hits.
Question: Does Vegas believe in ANY of these offenses?
It's July. Every team has improved. Every new play-caller is going to be awesome. Every QB is ready to take that next step.
And guess what? You can probably make some rational arguments to back up all those assertions! But as we know, some teams are going to be really good, and more will be really bad, so it's important in times like these to look at the RELATIVE nature of how we view offenses.
A good way of doing this is to look at every team's projected points for the season courtesy of the people who have more to lose than anyone: Bookmakers. RotoWire's own John McKechnie wrote an awesome article looking at some of this and supplied every team's Vegas Implied point totals.
From this tier of QBs ...
Colts (Daniel Jones) - 16th
Steelers (Aaron Rodgers) - 23rd
Titans (Cam Ward) - 26th
Panthers (Bryce Young) - 27th
And here's the thing, I'm not a believer in that Indy ranking! Reduced weaponry and key injuries that could easily persist into the early parts of the regular season to both Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce is not a fun combination.
Tier 9: They Won't Work Out, But Imagine if they Did
QB28 Geno Smith (ADP QB30): In a better situation than last year, but we're still talking about a soon-to-be 36-year-old journeyman QB who is fresh off leading the league in sacks and interceptions. Current off-the-field issues sure don't help.
QB29 Jacoby Brissett (ADP QB29): QB8 in fantasy points per game after taking over Week 6 last season, but it seems like a matter of when, not if, guys like Gardner Minshew and Carson Beck start games.
QB30 Fernando Mendoza (ADP QB25): Combines great physical and mental traits with pinpoint accuracy — especially on downfield backshoulder throws. Just one problem: The Raiders fully plan to let Mendoza learn behind Kirk Cousins.
QB31 Tua Tagovailoa (ADP QB31): Was a top-4 QB in EPA per dropback in 2022, 2023 and 2024 before slipping to 30th last season.
QB32 Deshaun Watson (ADP QB34): Somehow still the all-time QB4 in fantasy points per game in the Super Bowl era, but sure seems to be a shell of his former self physically.
QB33 Shedeur Sanders (ADP QB32): Displayed some nice touch throwing downfield and can be slippery in the pocket, but it's tough to find any statistic that paints him as anything other than a very bad professional QB.
QB34 Michael Penix (ADP QB33): Flashed some fun arm talent in three starts during his rookie campaign, but failed to consistently produce anything close to high-end results in a larger 2025 sample.
QB35 J.J. McCarthy (ADP QB36): Did play better as last season went on, but it sure seemed to mostly just be due to the competition level.
QB36 Kirk Cousins (ADP QB37): 38 in August, Cousins no longer has the physical tools to play the position at a high level, but he's still the favorite to start at least the first month of the season for whatever reason.
Question: Who are the frontrunners to win the league's various QB competitions?
This doesn't apply to the Jets and Cardinals at the moment, though neither Geno Smith (Cade Klubnik) nor Jacoby Brissett (Gardner Minshew, Carson Beck) should be expected to start 17 games if these teams are anywhere close to as bad as most think.
This leaves us with basically four quarterback competitions that will be settled sometime between now and Week 1. Warning: most are of the "Muhammad or McLovin" variety. Current Kalshi prediction market odds are next to the favorite:
Browns - Deshaun Watson 64% vs. Shedeur Sanders
Raiders - Kirk Cousins 93% vs. Fernando Mendoza
Falcons - Tua Tagovailoa 69% vs. Michael Penix
Vikings - Kyler Murray 76% vs. J.J. McCarthy
I would also side with the favorites in these equations, though it wouldn't be surprising in the former two cases if we see poor enough early season performances that the young gun actually winds up starting more games. I have less optimism for Penix or McCarthy winning out in a meaningful way in Atlanta or Minnesota, but at a minimum, all parties involved have shorter leashes than most QBs around the league.
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