Exploiting the Matchups: Week 13 Start/Sit

Bye weeks are over. For many of us, this means that for the first time in more than a month we can deploy our optimal lineup. With one week to go before many leagues start their playoffs, this timing couldn't be much better.

If you're in a must-win situation or fighting for a playoff bye or better positioning, or even if you've had a rough year but just really love playing the spoiler role, the key to this week is to aim for the highest possible floor.

I first look for offensive rhythm, with volume a close second. If the outcome of this week doesn't impact you as much, though, feel free to get cute. For me, some of the greatest joys I've gotten over the years from fantasy has been getting gut calls right come playoff time. So, while you want the foundation of your team to have a floor starting in the attic, if your gut tells you to hit one over the house, swing away.

Above and beyond all else, it's a good time of year to use beer or your liquor of choice to get you through any nervous game watching. After all, there's no better way to warm up and celebrate the success or drown the disappointment with these cold winter days on tap.

Note: This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide perspective you may not have considered and help make those tough decisions easier – or make you rethink those "no-brainer" choices.

Upgrades are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set to boost their production. Downgrades are worth benching or, for some bigger names, should be held to lower expectations for this week.

UPGRADE

Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. NYJ

Razor-sharp: That's what Mariota has been in his last five contests. In that span, he has one dud because he missed the majority of the game with a stinger injury, but after completing 22 of 23 passes on Monday night for 303 yards and two scores, he's clearly healthy. Despite getting hurt and missing a chunk of action in this stretch, he's tallied eight total scores, averaged over 200 yards passing, 9.0 YPA, complete 77.8 percent of his passes and added 136 yards with his legs. The Jets, meanwhile, gave up 232 yards and two TDs to Matt Barkley and the Bills' ragtag group of receivers just three weeks ago. Oh, and that was on just 25 attempts.

Lamar Jackson, BAL at ATL

Jackson will turn the ball over, sure. He has three interceptions in two starts. However, despite some hiccups, he'll typically produce some fireworks with his live arm and lightning legs. In just two starts, he's run for 190 yards and a score. His passing numbers have been deflated due to a lack of attempts – 44 total in these games – but an Atlanta offense that moves the ball at home might allow more room to grow. If Jackson throws it upwards of 35 times and adds 12-15 carries, don't be surprised to see 200-plus passing and up to 100-plus rushing with multiple scores against a Falcons defense that's allowed teams to amass a little shy of 400.0 yards per game.

Colt McCoy, WAS at PHI

In a little over five quarters of action in the face of two of the best pass rushes in the league, McCoy has thrown for 322 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 63 yards. A steady vet who uses his tight ends well and is not afraid to take some shots, McCoy should take a step further after a relatively promising start and thrive versus a decimated Eagles secondary that has allowed Blake Bortles, Dak Prescott and Eli Manning to each throw for at least 270 yards and a score in their last four games.

Jeff Driskel, CIN vs. DEN

Think volume and duality. Granted, game script was a huge factor, but in less than a full half of action against the Browns, Driskel threw 29 times and scored with both his arm and his legs, while leading touchdown drives of 75 and 94 yards. The Broncos rush the passer better than Cleveland, but they're coming off two emotional wins and could have a letdown game on the road against a wounded animal of a team. Even if they don't, Driskel still gets that volume. With a big arm and sub 4.6 speed at 6-4, 234 pounds, his first career start could offer numerous big plays.

Case Keenum, DEN at CIN

Keenum is certainly a less-than-exciting option, but those in trouble for two-quarterback or superflex leagues this week could do worse than starting a live body against a Bengals defense that's allowed the most total touchdowns to opposing signal callers. For as unsexy as Keenum may be, he's still managed at least 290 passing yards or multiple touchdowns in five of his last seven outings.

RB

Austin Ekeler, LAC at PIT

The Steelers have only allowed 108.4 scrimmage yards per game to opposing tailbacks, one of the stingiest marks in the league. While they do well in this regard, however, they seem to ease up when opponents get within scoring range. In fact, a running back has hit paydirt in nine of 11 games versus Pittsburgh, and smaller backs in particular have thrived against them recently. In their last three contests, the Steelers have given up 138 scrimmage yards and three TDs to Christian McCaffrey and saw diminutive speedster Phillip Lindsay gouge them for 110 and a score on the ground. Both backs averaged at least 5.5 YPC. This bodes well for Ekeler, who's coming off 103 scrimmage yards and his fourth touchdown of the season and replacing the injured Melvin Gordon (knee). After all, the slippery runner with a knack for the big play is averaging 7.5 yards per touch.

Doug Martin, OAK vs. KC

Martin went to Oakland to try to revive his at times Pro Bowl career that's been left for dead more than once. So far, without Marshawn Lynch in the lineup, he's succeeded. He's managed better than 4.0 YPC in all five starts with at least 69 scrimmage yards in each and is coming off his best overall effort with 72 yards and a score against a Ravens defense that entered the game having allowed the fewest points per game (PPR scoring) to opposing tailbacks. The Chiefs, having allowed a league-high 174.7 scrimmage yards per contest to the position, are on the opposite end of the spectrum from Baltimore.

Gus Edwards, BAL at ATL

Once. Twice. Three times a 100-yard rusher! Edwards is going streaking after rumbling for at least 115 in consecutive games, and an Atlanta defense that's given up 439 combined rushing yards during their three-game losing streak to Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram at a collective 6.5 YPC would not prevent Edwards from getting his third triple-digit day. If anything is going to keep Edwards from piling up more yards, it will be himself: He missed practice with an ankle injury on Wednesday. After 40 carries the past two weeks, it likely was only maintenance-related, and he wound up practicing in a limited fashion Thursday. If he has a setback and misses the game anyway, Ty Montgomery would take his place here as a high-upside flex. The former receiver will certainly come in handy against an Atlanta defense that's allowed the most receptions to running backs.

LeSean McCoy, BUF at MIA

The Bills are riding a two-game winning streak into the balmy South Beach heat and will almost certainly take advantage of a Dolphins defense ranked 29th versus the run. McCoy has finally been utilized in these wins as the feature back he's been his whole career, with 45 touches in that span for 171 yards and two scores. Now he'll look to gash a smallish Miami front seven that's given up a combined 521 rushing yards (at 7.8 YPC) and three TDs to lead tailbacks in their past four losses, including Kerryon Johnson, Lamar Miller and Aaron Jones each piling up at least 133 on the ground alone.

T.J. Yeldon, JAX vs. IND

When Leonard Fournette was out or couldn't finish a game for the first eight weeks, Yeldon proved a highly capable replacement, logging at least 70 scrimmage yards or a touchdown in every game. In fact, in Fournette's first full game back against this Colts defense (when Jacksonville fed him a heaping 29 touches), Yeldon still managed 63 yards on eight touches. Although Carlos Hyde will certainly get some early down work as a between-the-tackles thumper with Fournette suspended for the Indy rematch, Yeldon will lead the backfield in yardage. Easily the better receiver between the two, Yeldon will be looked to often when the Jags are playing from behind against a Colts group that's allowed the second-most receptions in the league to opposing tailbacks (80).

WR

Corey Davis, TEN vs. NYJ

Last week, Davis was a downgrade. The week before he was an upgrade. In those games, he went for 135 scrimmage yards and a score, then two catches for 30 yards, respectively. He's flashed the brilliance that made him the fifth overall pick in the 2017 draft in two of his last three, but as is true of a lot of young receivers, he goes as his quarterback goes. A stinger injury caused Marcus Mariota to miss extended action a couple weeks back in Davis' clunker against the Colts. In the two games sandwiching that debacle, Mariota and Davis went off, looking in sync arguably more than any other contest this season. Expect that to continue against a Jets defense that just gave up 201 yards to New England's top three receivers to keep a trend going for a unit that's given up the third-most receptions to opposing wideouts.

Golden Tate, PHI vs. WAS

The Redskins have yet to go one game without allowing a wide receiver to reach 70 yards, and 15 different opponents can make that claim so far, including the likes of Keke Coutee, Michael Gallup, Allen Hurns, Cameron Meredith and Geronimo Allison. They've clearly been getting worse defending wideouts of late. In its last four weeks, Washington has allowed three 100-yard efforts to wide receivers, including Amari Cooper's memorable Thanksgiving Day massacre of their secondary. Tate will have been with the Eagles for just over a month when the Skins come to town Monday night. After consecutive games leading the team with eight targets, the man who dubs himself "Showtime Tate" on social media is poised to perform up to that standard in primetime.

Josh Reynolds, LAR at DET

In the last two games Cooper Kupp missed entirely, Reynolds tallied 13 targets, nine catches, 122 yards and three touchdowns. In the Lions' last three games, when they were not facing Chase Daniel in his third career start, Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller and D.J. Moore combined for 412 yards and four touchdowns. Darius Slay covered none of them (he missed the first Chicago game). When Slay is busy shadowing Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods on any given play, Reynolds should feast.

Robert Foster, BUF at MIA

Yes, that's right. A Bills wide receiver is being written about in a positive light. Try not to faint. Foster is forcing anyone who's written off Buffalo pass catchers to notice him. He's done that by racking up 199 yards in his last two outings on just five grabs, including a 75-yard score versus Jacksonville. Foster may be an undrafted rookie, but he played four years at Alabama and boasts 4.4-speed at 6-2. With Josh Allen's cannon arm against a Dolphins secondary that has allowed more yards per catch (14.4) to wide receivers than all but three defenses, Foster looks good for another one or two long balls. Think "DFS chess piece".

Jermaine Kearse, NYJ at TEN

With Josh McCown making his second start of the season under center and the Jets predictably trailing, the veteran looked often to a familiar face. Kearse turned a season-high 12 targets into 66 yards and his first score of the year. Pairing with McCown for 12 full games last year, Kearse posted career highs for catches and yards. If Sam Darnold (foot) sits again and a banged-up Robby Anderson (ankle) remains limited, expect more of the same from these elder statesman of the Jets' offense. Against a Titans defense that's allowed the sixth-most catches and yards to wideouts, things may even be better than last Sunday.

TE

Cameron Brate, TB vs. CAR

All he does is catch touchdowns -- at least from Jameis Winston, anyways. Brate is now up to seven scoring grabs from Winston in the quarterback's last 14 full games. With a Panthers defense that's given up a league-high nine TDs to the tight end position visiting "The Sunshine State," the trend is harder than ever to ignore.

Jonnu Smith, TEN vs. NYJ

Ride. The. Hot. Hand. In this case, hands (plural), since Smith catches passes instead of throwing them or running the ball. Among a deplorably thin tight end position, Smith carries intriguing value in an almost equally thin Titans receiving tree. After Corey Davis, the fellow second-year Smith is next in line for targets. After a painfully slow start to the season despite the loss of Delanie Walker to injured reserve, Smith is finally taking advantage of them. He has 185 yards in his last four contests with scores in three of them. The Jets appear tough against tight ends on paper, but the reality is they've played a weak group of tight ends beyond Rob Gronkowski and Eric Ebron, both of whom found paydirt versus them.

DOWNGRADE

Tom Brady, NE vs. MIN

It's simple: Brady is far from a top-10 fantasy quarterback by any other measure than name at this stage. He's 11th in yards and 15th in passing touchdowns. He's thrown for just three touchdowns in the last four contests and has one outing this season with over 300 yards and multiple scores. Facing a Vikings defense that allowed the fifth-fewest yards (221.0 per game) and fewest touchdowns (14) through the air won't help matters. His outlook might tick slightly upward, however, if top Minnesota cover cornerback Xavier Rhodes (hamstring) doesn't play.

Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. ARZ

Burning the Seahawks two weeks ago for 332 yards and two scores was an outlier for Rodgers this season. He topped 11.0 YPA in that game – the only time he's been better than 9.5 – and without that efficiency, his numbers would not have been starter-worthy in 12-team leagues. The Packers are a mess right now, and although they'll be at home and Rodgers figures to be laser focused in a must-win contest, those conditions do not change the fact that the Cardinals are second in the league in sacks, tied for third in passing scores allowed and dead-last in rushing attempts against and rushing scores allowed. This game will be led by an Aaron for Green Bay, but it will be Mr. Jones, not Mr. Rodgers.

RB

Adrian Peterson, WAS at PHI

Like LeGarrette Blount? Playing Peterson in the current state of the Redskins' offense is akin to rolling the dice on a big back generating a short touchdown or two. Essentially, now that Washington is missing its starting quarterback while fielding a decimated offensive line, Peterson is what Blount has been the past two years: a big, bruising back who might fall into the end zone but will more than likely provide what Peterson has in three of the last four games since he trampled the Giants back when the Skins looked like the NFC East front runner. In those three contests, he tallied a total of 146 yards while averaging 3.0 YPC -- and that included cupcake matchups with the Buccaneers and Falcons. The Eagles' typically stout run defense has been lenient in recent weeks, but with them in the thick of the divisional race, count on them stepping up to defend their home turf.

James White, NE vs. MIN

The Vikings have held Alvin Kamara, Tarik Cohen, Theo Riddick and Aaron Jones to a combined 121 receiving yards on 20 catches in their last four contests. Meanwhile, Sony Michel and the Patriots pass catchers were all healthy and active for the third time this season last Sunday. The result was White being less of a factor than usual. With Michel, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon all missing from action for at least three full games at different times throughout the first 10 contests, White tallied 10 scores and found himself being the focal point of the offense. Will he be more involved against a well-rounded Minnesota team? It's certainly possible. But outside of full PPR formats, he suddenly looks like a risky option considering how well Harrison Smith and Co. defend tailbacks as receivers. Expect the other Patriot mouths to get fed more at the expense of White's owners again.

Mark Ingram, NO at DAL

Ingram has rumbled for 259 yards at 6.5 YPC in the last three contests, but his efficiency and utility as the "thunder" element in the Saints' backfield is about to come to a halt. Led by a tenacious defensive line and the top linebacking duo in the league in Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch, the Cowboys have allowed fewer rushing yards to opposing tailbacks than all but three defenses. Only Chris Carson and his 32 carries way back in Week 3 reached the century mark against Dallas, and since then only Adrian Peterson has topped 62 ground yards against them. While Alvin Kamara takes the bigger piece of the pie, Ingram owners will go hungry.

WR

Michael Thomas, NO at DAL

The new Jalen Ramsey may well be another long, rangy cornerback that's a former first round pick, and his name is Byron Jones. Per Pro Football Focus, Jones has allowed only 261 yards all season to his assignments despite being tied for 12th in total coverage snaps (419). He's yet to allow a touchdown, and because of his shutdown presence only three receivers have reached 100 yards against Dallas, while the eight touchdowns they've allowed to the position are tied for the second fewest. Generally speaking, Thomas is a stone-cold, matchup-proof commodity, but his role in New Orleans' offense is not consistently dominant enough. After a blistering start, he's managed one game over the century mark in his last eight, failing to find the end zone in four and only recording four catches in four others. Heck, in five of those contests, he saw six or fewer targets. With spotty volume and a corner playing at an elite level prepared to follow his every move, Thomas will be hard-pressed to redeem his season-low 38 yards from Thanksgiving.

T.Y. Hilton, IND at JAX

Hilton has been red-hot the past couple weeks, averaging 140.0 yards per contest. Three weeks ago, however, when he squared off with Jalen Ramsey he managed a little more than half that average while hauling in only three of seven targets. Given the epic collapse the Jaguars are experiencing, this is less of a downgrade for seasonal formats and more a "hey, not this week in daily games" kind of downgrade. Essentially, no need to be totally scared off, but adjust accordingly for the reasonably lower expectations. If for some reason Ramsey does sit out with a knee injury that's kept him from practicing (as of Wednesday), A.J. Bouye is also capable of limiting the best of receivers, even in what's been a bit of a down year for the 2017 Pro Bowler.

Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. DEN

Boyd has fared well without A.J. Green in the lineup despite being the focal point of opposing secondaries. He's managed at least 65 yards in three straight despite the absence of a seven-time Pro Bowler demanding double teams. Boyd even caught Jeff Driskel's first career touchdown pass last week. The strong play could come to an end, however, if Green is unable to suit up for a fourth straight contest. Chris Harris has three Pro Bowl nods of his own and remains one of the top cover corners in his eighth season. If he's checking Boyd instead of Green, the third-year wideout will be in for a long day.