This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
San Francisco -1
I'm not going to lie or find any excuses; picking games this season has been less than stellar. That being said I'll continue to plug ahead and try to get some positive "progression" to the mean. My favorite game this week is taking the 49ers (-1) at home against my Bills. Josh Allen has been more turnover-prone recently and I'm not sure the line has taken into account that San Francisco is much healthier as of late.
N.Y. Jets +320, Bengals +400
I think you take both of these games and obviously be happy if one of them hits. The Jets have to win a game at some point, right? Well, using that strategy until this point has not worked out but there are reasons to think it might this weekend. I don't think Las Vegas is as good as a team as their record indicates (6-5) and they couldn't have looked worse against a bad defense last week. Plus, there's the long travel and time difference that comes into play here. As for the Bengals, everyone seems to be on the Dolphins (7-4) who have surpassed any expectations for them this season. That being said, this line has moved towards the Bengals getting a bigger number meaning everyone is drinking the Miami Kool-Aid. Ryan Fitzpatrick is still prone to turning the ball over and Brandon Allen has a lethal group of wide receivers to work with. I'd much rather roll the dice with the money line here rather than take the Bengals plus the 11 points.
Atlanta Falcons +3
Julio Jones seems headed in the right direction towards playing and if you look at Matt Ryan's numbers with and without him, there's a huge discrepancy. The Falcons have looked much better since Dan Quinn was let go and being home in a big rivalry game it doesn't hurt getting the three points. Atlanta has gotten torched this season by the opposing quarterback but a look at the numbers shows that's because of the pass and injuries to the secondary. Taysom Hill is much more of a runner than a passer and Raheem Morris should have the defense zeroed in on stopping him in those regards.
Player Props
Mitchell Trubisky over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-112)
Let's face it; anytime you have the opportunity to bet an over on Trubisky, you have to take it. While that's usually in the interception category, this week I'll focus on the positive. The Lions are the NFC's version of the Jets, a team that fails on multiple aspects of being a franchise. Trubisky has had a ton of success facing them with, wait for it, throwing for three touchdowns in each of his last four games against Detroit.
Keke Coutee Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (+100), Over 4.5 Receptions (+112)
My Euclid-like math skills indicate that these might be related and I like taking both if you're going to take one or the other. While the Colts defense can't be as bad as they were last week, they'll be on the road and with an uptick in snaps, Coutee should get his targets. I don't mind sprinkling a little on the +250 anytime touchdown wager here.
Tyler Lockett over 59.5 Receiving Yards
Lockett got a season-low four targets last week in a game where DK Metcalf had 13. I'd expect those numbers to be more even this week especially considering the matchup. James Bradberry has been a decent corner this season but he should be keyed in on Metcalf leaving Isaac Yiadom to deal with Lockett. That latter part is why I like the over here.
Player Touchdowns
Anthony Firkser +260 Anytime
I instantly checked out this number as soon as I saw the player news here on Rotowire that Jonnu Smith was going to be out this week. At that time, Firkser was +425 for an anytime touchdown and +4500 for a two-touchdown day. Those numbers have shrunk since then to +260 and +2500 with the news that Smith is out. I still like the +260 line a lot as I'd expect Ryan Tannehill to be aware of Myles Garrett rushing on the outside and therefore getting rid of the ball early, especially in the red zone.
Devontae Booker -143 Anytime
I hate laying odds like these in this section and yes, I advocated for taking the Jets money line. All of that being said, Booker should get plenty of work Sunday including being the goal line back. He's averaged 5.5 yards per carry this season and he could easily get this catching a short pass from Derek Carr.
Aaron Jones -134 Anytime
Anyone who had this wager last week had to be pulling their hair out as Aaron Rodgers took care of all of the scoring in the red zone. Expect some correction this week as the Packers are big home favorites against the Eagles. It helps that Jones has scored both on the ground and through the air showing his versatility.
