This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We are only a couple of weeks away from the big game and it's a good time to start planning parties but we first need to see who's going to be playing in Los Angeles on Feb. 13. With only two games to choose from, it makes my focus (supposedly) better although it also limits the variety of picks to make. Let's take a look at who I like this week.
GAMES
Los Angeles Rams 
(-3.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers 
I've come to the conclusion that I'm going to ride things out with the Rams, even if they end up playing the Chiefs. It'll be a "home game" - I put that in quotes because it won't quite be a home-field advantage with a variety of fans from different teams attending the game. I do think, Sean McVay has learned his lessons in the past, will be aggressive (or as Teddy KGB would say, "verry-aggresavie") and get his team a championship.
The Rams are the better defensive team and I trust Matthew Stafford over Jimmy Garoppolo. That's enough for me to lay the points here.
Cincinnati Bengals 
(+7) at the Kansas City Chiefs 
I'm so happy the Bills get to host another AFC Championship game this year. Wait, what? The Chiefs seem like a Jekyl and Hyde team this season and they've already lost to the Bengals, although that was a home game for them. Taking the points seems safer (obviously) but I also don't mind sprinkling a little on the money line at +270. The Bengals will put up points; the bigger question is: can they make a few defensive stops to slow down the Chiefs' offense. I think they can.
PLAYER PROPS
Tyler Boyd OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards - This is my favorite bet of the week as Boyd has 43 receiving yards over the last two weeks and 36 receiving yards the week before. Therefore, this number doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Looking further, Joe Burrow has an over/under of 287.5 passing yards so multiple players should have good games receiving-wide for the Bengals. The other factor here is looking at what the Chiefs did last week, they shut down Stefon Diggs but allowed softer coverage to Gabriel Davis. I can see a similar scenario for Boyd who will be the third thought after Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Cam Akers OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards - I'm a bit wary of this wager as it's possible Akers gets benched if he puts the ball on the ground, AGAIN. This is an easier matchup for him this week and if he gets another 24 carries he only needs to average three yards a carry to hit the over. While he may not get another 24 carries, I'd also expect him to average over three yards a carry. Again, my only hesitation here is the fumble-itis he demonstrated last week.
PLAYER TOUCHDOWNS
*Make sure to opt-in for Joe Burrow 2+ touchdowns that you can get at +100.
Joe Mixon (-125) - Mixon has 17 touchdowns this season so it seems like this number should be like -150 or lower, giving bettors a slight edge. Devin Singletary was able to score last week and the Chiefs are 20th in the league against the running back position for fantasy. I also would put a little something on Mixon 2+ touchdowns at +380 odds. Between that and the Burrow "boost", it seems hard to swing and miss on both wagers.
Tyler Higbee (+210) - There are two different paths to go by here. Either the 49ers learned from Week 18 when they allowed Higbee two touchdowns or the Rams found a way to utilize Higbee in the red zone against San Francisco. I'll gamble on the latter especially given the fact that it could be worth more than double whatever I wage. Home field advantage helps and given the Rams are expected to score around 24 points, there's a decent chance Higbee is involved in that number.
