DraftKings NFL: Week 7 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's slate includes 10 games and in terms of competitive, watchable football, it's the best one we've had this season. Texans-Packers and Chiefs-49ers are potential Super Bowl matchups. Lions-Vikings features 4-1 vs. 5-0 and arguably the two best teams in the league thus far while Seahawks-Falcons should fast-paced and high-scoring. 

From a DFS standpoint, we don't have the cheap chalk or obvious running back options that we've had in recent weeks, and that's a good thing. You can expand the player pool and experiment with lineup constructions without feeling pigeon-holed into playing the same three RBs as everyone else because the value is too good to pass up. Palatable leverage should be easier to find and that's the key to winning GPPs. Last week saw a time-traveler roster Sean Tucker at 0.0 percent and Joe Mixon at 1 percent to take down the millionaire maker. I'm not recommending anything that crazy, just highlighting that it pays to be unique in tournaments. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. 

• WR Drake London vs. SEA ($6,900)

London was the most popular WR in cash games last week, and I expect that to be the case again after he responded with six catches for 74 yards and a touchdown. He has at least six catches in five consecutive games while scoring in four and the Falcons have a favorable home matchup against a banged-up Seahawks defense that's allowed 36 points per game in their last three. There are plenty of good options in the $6K range, but London feels safest. Terry McLaurin ($6,800) and Diontae Johnson ($6,600) also will be relatively popular as they've treated people well in recent weeks and have a matchup against each other. 

• RB Aaron Jones vs. DET ($6,500)

Jones has had two weeks rest after leaving Minnesota's Week 5 game against the Jets early with a hamstring injury and is expected to play Sunday without limitations. He had 24-plus touches the previous two weeks in impressive wins over the Texans and Packers and he's been heavily involved in the passing game all season. The Vikings matchup against the Lions is expected to be fast-paced and high scoring, which is why Jones projects among the top value at RB despite carrying a questionable tag. Chuba Hubbard ($6,500) projects similarly well for the same price and will also be popular. I highlighted Jones because I think he's more likely to score and I prefer the Vikings as an offense to the Panthers, but it's understandable to prefer Hubbard based on health alone. Most cash-game lineups will contain at least one. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jayden Daniels vs. CAR ($7,600)

QB Sam Darnold vs. DET ($6,200)

QB Geno Smith at ATL ($5,800)

QB Daniel Jones vs. PHI ($5,400)

RB Kyren Williams vs. LV ($8,100)

RB Kenneth Walker at ATL ($7,300)

RB Bijan Robinson vs. SEA ($7,100)

RB Chuba Hubbard at WAS ($6,500)

RB Aaron Jones vs. DET ($6,500)

RB Tony Pollard at BUF ($6,300)

WR Justin Jefferson vs. DET ($8,500)

WR Malik Nabers vs. PHI ($7,500)

WR Drake London vs. SEA ($6,900)

WR Terry McLaurin vs. CAR ($6,800)

WR Diontae Johnson at WAS ($6,600)

TE Brock Bowers at LAR ($5,800)

TE David Njoku vs. CIN ($4,100)

TE Colby Parkinson vs.LV ($3,800)

D/ST Los Angeles Rams vs. LV ($3,000)

D/ST Cleveland Browns vs. CIN ($2,500)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Detroit Lions (24.75) at Minnesota Vikings (26.25)

LIONS

Detroit games have averaged the most combined snaps this season and their offense has looked as good as any in the league, coming off 47- and 42-point outbursts against the Cowboys and Seahawks in their last two. Sunday's matchup against the undefeated Vikings provides a stiffer test, but at least we should get a competitive game with points on both sides. After going perfect against Seattle, Jared Goff ($6,500) torched Dallas for 315 yards and three scores. He's scored 27-plus DK points in his last two and always goes under-owned because he doesn't run. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300) won't be popular either given his high price tag and relative lack of volume in recent weeks but he's caught a touchdown in three straight. Jameson Williams ($6,000) has caught a long touchdown in three of five games and will also be overlooked given that he hasn't drawn more than four targets in his last three. Nevertheless, he and St. Brown offer the requisite ceiling potential to make them good leverage options in GPPs. The same is the case for the two-headed monster of Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,900) and David Montgomery ($6,600). Montgomery has scored at least 15 DK points in all five games while Gibbs has done so in four. Both have had multiple-touchdown games and 25-plus point ceilings. Neither will be more than a few percent owned.

VIKINGS

The Vikings are actually tied with the Lions for the league lead in play volume and rank first over the last month with 132.7 per game. They get a big boost Sunday as Detroit will be without star pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson, a favorite for defensive player of the year, who they lost for the season last week. That means Sam Darnold ($6,200) should have a clean pocket and he's shown plenty capable of taking advantage as he's thrown for at least two TDs in four of five games and topped 20 DK points in three. Justin Jefferson ($8,500) has a touchdown in four of five games and the highest ceiling on the slate. I went into more detail below in the "High-Priced Heroes" section. Jordan Addison ($5,600) drew eight targets against the Jets last time out and has the type of big-play ability to succeed in any matchup. Part of the reason I like stacking Minnesota is because its target tree is so condensed. Other than Jefferson and Addison, there isn't a WR or TE that sees sufficient enough volume to be viable. Aaron Jones ($6,500) does, however, and he's plenty involved in the passing game to be considered in any type of stack. 

• Favorite Lions Stack: QB Goff + RB Jones + WR Jefferson + WR St. Brown or WR Williams
• Favorite Vikings Stack: QB Darnold + RB Gibbs/RB Montgomery + WR Jefferson +/- WR Addison

Seattle Seahawks (24.25) at Atlanta Falcons (26.75)

SEAHAWKS

You can make a credible argument that this is the biggest pace-up spot of the season so far. These are the second and third-fastest offenses in the league, playing indoors with a close spread. On top of that, Seattle has the highest neutral pass rate in the last month while Atlanta ranks second. Bottom line, we could have shootout on our hands. Geno Smith ($5,800) has attempted at least 40 passes in four of the last five games and has topped 300 yards three times in that span as a result. DK Metcalf ($6,800) has had three 100-yard receiving games in six starts. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,900) has drawn at least nine targets in three of six and seems primed for a breakout. Tyler Lockett ($5,300) is managing a minor knee injury but has at least 60 yards in three straight and is coming off his best game of the season. Kenneth Walker ($7,300) has 15 receptions over the last two weeks, proving that he's essentially matchup-proof and that you can pair him with either QB. He projects as one of the top RBs on the board this week. 

FALCONS

Seattle's defense has been cooked three weeks in a row. They've allowed 36, 29 and 42 points in losses to the 49ers, Giants and Lions, respectively. This is a prime matchup for Atlanta's skill position players. We know Kirk Cousins ($6,300) is capable after seeing him throw for more than 500 yards and four touchdowns two weeks ago. Drake London ($6,900) has at least six catches in five consecutive games and has a touchdown in four of those. He projects well and will be popular in all formats. Darnell Mooney ($5,600) and Ray-Ray McCloud ($4,400) are leverage optons. I prefer Mooney given he's their best deep threat and likeliest to score a long TD. Kyle Pitts ($4,500) is another good tournament option as he's had 70-plus yards in back-to-back games and won't be overly popular. Seattle's defense is allowing 5.2 yards per carry and 155 yards per game to RBs, meaning Bijan Robinson ($7,100) will have a good chance to build on his best game of the season after he went for 110 total yards and two TDs last week. 

• Favorite Seahawks Stack: QB Smith + RB Robinson + WR Smith-Njigba and/or WR Metcalf
• Favorite Falcons Stack: QB Cousins + WR London + WR Smith-Njibga +/- TE Pitts
• Favorite Falcons Stack 2: QB Cousins + RB Walker + WR London +/- TE Pitts

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jayden Daniels + RB Chuba Hubbard + WR Terry McLaurin

QB Jayden Daniels + WR Terry McLaurin + WR Diontae Johnson or WR Xavier Legette

QB Patrick Mahomes + WR Brandon Aiyuk + WR JuJu Smith Schuster and/or TE Travis Kelce

QB Jordan Love + RB Joe Mixon or WR Tank Dell + WR Jayden Reed or WR Romeo Doubs

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase or WR Tee Higgins + TE David Njoku or WR Jerry Jeudy

QB Daniel Jones + RB Saquon Barkley or WR A.J. Brown + WR Malik Nabers

QB Deshaun Watson + WR Ja'Marr Chase + WR Jerry Jeudy and/or TE David Njoku

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Justin Jefferson vs. DET ($8,500)

This is a pace-up spot for Minnesota's offense against a banged-up Detroit defense that's been a pass funnel through five games. It's the same spot that we tried to take advantage of with CeeDee Lamb last week only to have Dak Prescott let us down. Here's a stat I found notable on Jefferson: in seven games since Aaron Glenn took over as the Lions defensive coordinator, Jefferson has put up at least 124 receiving yards in six. The Lions will be without all-world pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson, meaning Sam Darnold should have ample time to find Jefferson early and often. 

• TE Brock Bowers at LAR ($5,800)

The biggest winner in the Davante Adams trade was Brock Bowers' target share. Bowers has drawn double-digit targets in back-to-back games and has responded with 17 catches for 168 yards. By all accounts he's a generational talent at TE and the Raiders have a relatively soft matchup against a below-average Rams defense. Las Vegas may also be without Jakobi Meyers (ankle), who's yet to practice as of Friday. His absence would further clear the path to Bowers seeing another 10-12 targets.

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• QB Jayden Daniels vs. CAR ($7,600)

I realize this is bold, but hear me out. It's a recommendation to fade Daniels in GPPs, not cash-games, though it's viable there too. I like everything about Daniels. The matchup is as soft as it gets and the Commanders have the highest implied total on the slate. I worry that the Panthers will be able to keep pace, however, and I'm not sure Daniels hits a ceiling often enough to pay off his inflated salary. We still haven't seen him throw for 300 yards and put up 30 fantasy points. Brian Robinson is expected back as well, which means he isn't as likely to have multiple rushing touchdowns near the goal line. This is Lamar Jackson's spot from last week when he $7,800, had a decent game and finished with a modest 22 DK points. I like my chances of matching whatever Daniels does with someone like Sam Darnold or Geno Smith because there isn't a much value this week and salary is more important. 

The Smash Spot 

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• TE David Njoku vs. CIN ($4,100)

It doesn't feel great highlighting a player reliant on Deshaun Watson to succeed but Njoku has a lot going for him this week. First, he's underpriced after missing a few games through injury and because of how bad Cleveland's offense has been. Second, Amari Cooper was traded midweek and I'm expecting Njoku to be Watson's favorite target. He's always been a quarterback who likes to target TEs and it just makes sense given how bad he's been throwing the ball downfield. Lastly, safety value Jerome Ford is out and he'd been quite active in the passing game. I wouldn't expect the same from Chubb and Foreman. The bottom line is there's clear opportunity for Njoku to draw 10 targets and we saw what he's capable of last season when he topped 90 yards receiving in four of his last five. 

Honorable Mention: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4,000)

The Bargain Bin

QB Daniel Jones vs. PHI ($5,400)

QB Andy Dalton at WAS ($5,200)

QB Deshaun Watson vs. CIN ($4,900)

WR Jordan Whittington vs. LV ($4,800)

WR Jerry Jeudy vs. CIN ($4,800)

WR Tre Tucker at LAR ($4,200)

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster at SF ($4,000)

WR Noah Brown vs. CAR ($4,000)

WR Elijah Moore vs. CIN ($3,200)

WR Jalen Coker at CAR ($3,000)

TE Colby Parkinson vs. LV ($3,800)

TE Grant Calcaterra at NYG ($3,200)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Cooper Kupp vs. LV

Kupp (ankle) is considered a game-time decision as he hopes to suit up for the first time since Week 2. If he's active, I'll have considerably less interest in Jordan Whittington and Colby Parkinson. If Kupp misses, Whittington and Parkinson project as strong value and would be viable in any format. 

Weather

Nothing to worry about this week outside of the London game, which isn't on this slate.