DraftKings NFL Week 18: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy

Sunday's Week 18 slate includes 13 games and features Cowboys-Giants and Lions-Bears with point totals above 49. It will also feature teams with varying degrees of motivation and various star players being rested. Ownership will be more spread out than last week when there were only nine games to choose from. 

In this breakdown, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite ideas for GPPs. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments and important to prioritize when building lineups. For cash games, play the best chalk and, when in doubt, follow ownership, which you can get an idea of from our NFL DFS optimizer.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Tank Bigsby vs. WAS ($5,400); Tanner McKee vs. WAS ($4,500)

With little to play for, Philadelphia will be resting Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts and other starters. They're still four-point favorites at home against a Washington defense that's allowed 200+ rushing yards in back-to-back games. Bigbsy has looked good in a limited role since being traded from Jacksonville, and he's expected to serve as the starter in place of Barkley. Tanner McKee ($4,500) will start at QB, just as he did in Week 18 last season when he threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns. 

• WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. DAL ($6,100)

Robinson is coming off a season-high 11 catches against the Raiders last week, the sixth time he's drawn double-digit targets in the last 10 games. He has another favorable spot Sunday as New York's matchup against Dallas has a 49.5-point total and the Cowboys secondary is in transition after losing Trevon Diggs. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Trevor Lawrence vs. TEN ($6,400)

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QB Caleb Williams vs. DET ($5,900)

QB Jaxson Dart vs. DAL ($5,700)

QB C.J. Stroud vs. IND ($5,400)

QB Mitchell Trubisky vs. NYJ ($5,000)

QB Tanner McKee vs. WAS ($4,500)

RB Bijan Robinson vs. NO ($8,700)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs at CHI ($8,000)

RB Chase Brown vs. CLE ($7,600)

RB Travis Etienne vs. TEN ($7,100)

RB Aaron Jones vs. GB ($6,000)

RB Tank Bigsby vs. WAS ($5,400)

WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. CLE ($8,500)

WR CeeDee Lamb at NYG ($7,300)

WR Michael Wilson at LAR ($6,600)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. DAL ($6,100)

WR Courtland Sutton vs. LAC ($5,900)

WR Jakobi Meyers vs. TEN ($5,600)

WR Luther Burden vs. DET ($5,300)

WR Jerry Jeudy at CIN ($4,100)

WR Jahan Dotson vs. WAS ($3,800)

WR Kevin Austin at ATL ($3,400)

WR Darius Cooper vs. WAS ($3,300)

TE Juwan Johnson at ATL ($4,200)

TE Colston Loveland vs. DET ($3,900)

TE Michael Mayer vs. KC ($3,500)

TE Grant Calcaterra vs. WAS ($2,600)

D/ST Denver Broncos vs. LAC ($3,800)

D/ST Buffalo Bills vs. NYJ ($3,500)

D/ST Minnesota Vikings vs. GB ($3,000)

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders vs. KC ($2,400)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Detroit Lions (23.75) at Chicago Bears (26.75)

Lions

Detroit was eliminated from playoff contention last week but HC Dan Campbell never lacks for motivation, and we can expect the Lions to play their starters throughout a divisional matchup in Chicago that's still meaningful to the Bears. As usual, Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000) projects among the top point-per-dollar values and will be popular as a result. The same goes for Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,700), who's coming off eight catches on 13 targets. He had nine for 115 yards and three TDs when Detroit put up 52 points on Chicago in Week 2. No other Lions will carry significant ownership, which means Jared Goff ($6,100) and Jameson Williams ($6,700) can be considered for leverage in large-field GPPs. 

Bears

Much maligned after early season struggles, what a turnaround it's been for Caleb Williams ($5,900), who led Chicago to an improbable division title. The Bears will clinch the No. 2 seed with a win on Sunday. It looks like they'll be without Rome Odunze again, which means continued opportunity for the likes of Luther Burden ($5,300) and Colston Loveland ($3,900), who project as the best Chicago values behind Williams. Burden is coming off the best game of his career with eight catches for 138 yards and a TD against San Francisco. Loveland had six catches on 10 targets for 94 yards and a TD as the Bears nearly completed the comeback. DJ Moore ($5,500) will go overlooked because he normally sees less volume, but that hasn't stopped him from putting up 22+ DraftKings points in three of the last six games. 

• Favorite Lions Stack: QB Goff + WR St. Brown + TE Loveland
• Favorite Bears Stack 1: QB Williams + RB Gibbs + WR Burden and/or TE Loveland
• Favorite Bears Stack 2: QB Williams + WR St. Brown + WR Burden and/or TE Loveland

Dallas Cowboys (26.5) at New York Giants (23)

Cowboys

Cowboys games lead the league in total points, so it's no surprise to see their matchup against the Giants has a 51.5-point total, the highest of the 13 games on the slate. From a DFS standpoint, Dak Prescott ($6,800) has been excellent, topping 22 DraftKings points in 10 of 16 games. CeeDee Lamb ($7,300) and George Pickens ($7,200) are capable of breaking any slate, and the Giants defense has been torched by No. 1 WRs this season. It's nearly impossible to choose between the two on any given week, but I'll side with Lamb to bounce back and finish strong after a couple down games in a row. Keep an eye on the status of TE Jake Ferguson ($4,300), listed as questionable with a calf injury after exiting last week's game early. 

Giants

Giants games have been fruitful for fantasy points because the offense ranks second in neutral pace while the defense has mostly struggled. Jaxson Dart ($5,700) has really impressed, especially considering he's been without star WR Malik Nabers. Dart has at least 23 DraftKings points in six of his last nine games, helped by eight rushing TDs in that span. Wan'Dale Robinson ($6,100) has stepped up in the absence of Nabers and projects among the best point-per-dollar value at his position. Deep threat Darius Slayton ($4,100) can be considered for leverage in larger-field tournaments

• Favorite Cowboys Stack: QB Prescott + WR Lamb or WR Pickens + WR Robinson
• Favorite Giants Stack: QB Dart + WR Robinson + WR Lamb or WR Pickens

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase or WR Tee Higgins + WR Jerry Jeudy

QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Jakobi Meyers or WR Brian Thomas or WR Parker Washington

QB Trevor Lawrence + TE Brenton Strange

QB Bo Nix + WR Courtland Sutton

QB C.J. Stroud + WR Nico Collins

QB Tyler Shough + RB Bijan Robinson + TE Juwan Johnson or WR Kevin Austin

QB Tanner McKee + WR Jahan Dotson or WR Darius Cooper +/- TE Grant Calcaterra

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Bijan Robinson vs. NO ($8,700)

Robinson took 27 touches for 229 yards and three touchdowns as he exploded for 43 DraftKings points against the Rams on Monday night. The Falcons have a favorable home matchup against a depleted Saints team, and there's enough value at other positions to comfortably spend up for Robinson, who projects as the top value and player with the highest ceiling.

• WR CeeDee Lamb at NYG ($7,300)

Lamb is coming off subpar games of 9.6 and 11.1 fantasy points and I'm expecting that to temper his ownership enough for what's a great spot against the Giants, who've been feasted on by enemy WRs. Prior to the last two, Lamb had topped 111 receiving yards in three consecutive games and will expect to finish the season on a high note. 

Honorable Mentions: RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000); WR George Pickens ($7,200)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Ashton Jeanty vs. KC ($6,400)

The Raiders were embarrassing in last week's loss to the Giants and there's just no way I can trust Jeanty at double-digit ownership against a stellar Chiefs run defense. Las Vegas is borderline tanking for the No. 1 pick, and I'd rather roster other RBs in better spots. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Jahan Dotson vs. WAS ($3,800)

The Eagles are resting A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, which means Dotson will serve as the defacto No. 1 WR for Tanner McKee. It's the same role he played in Week 18 last season when he caught seven of 11 targets for 94 yards in a game that also featured McKee at QB. This one happens to be against the team who drafted and traded him away, so there's already plenty of motivation.

Honorable Mention: WR Jerry Jeudy ($4,100)

The Bargain Bin

QB Mitchell Trubisky vs. NYJ ($5,000)

QB Tanner McKee vs. WAS ($4,500)

RB Tank Bigsby vs. WAS ($5,400)

RB Dylan Sampson at CIN ($5,200)

RB Audric Estime at ATL ($5,000)

WR Jerry Jeudy at CIN ($4,100)

WR Darius Slayton vs. DAL ($4,100)

WR Jahan Dotson vs. WAS ($3,800)

WR Kevin Austin at ATL ($3,400)

WR Darius Cooper vs. WAS ($3,300)

TE Michael Mayer vs. KC ($3,500)

TE Grant Calcaterra vs. WAS ($2,600)

TE Greg Dulcich at NE ($2,600)

Weather

• Cold temperatures in the northeast but in general there isn't much to be concerned about this week. It's possible something could change by Sunday.