Sunday Night Football NFL Picks: Vikings Vs. Cowboys
A Cowboys squad fighting to stay in the NFC playoff picture welcomes in the inconsistent J.J. McCarthy and his Vikings, we dive into bets to consider for the Sunday night clash.
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Vikings vs. Cowboys Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Vikings +235 (FanDuel) / Cowboys -270 (ESPN Bet)
- Point spread: Vikings +6.5 (FanDuel) / Cowboys -5.5 (BetRivers)
- Totals: Over 47.5 points (BetRivers) / Under 48.5 points (DraftKings)
The Cowboys were favored by more than a touchdown before Week 14 action, but that number has now come down by as much as two points to 5.5 coming into the weekend. Dallas fell to the Lions by a 44-30 score while the Vikings and McCarthy looked much better in knocking off the Commanders by a 31-0 score.
The total has remained in a tighter range, consistently bouncing between 47.5 and 48.5 over the second half of the week after dipping as low as 46.5 before Week 14 action. McCarthy's improved performance in Week 14 apparently gave bettors a bit of optimism that Minnesota could make more of a contribution to the total than previously thought.
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Vikings vs. Cowboys Betting Picks
The wolves were out for McCarthy following his ugly 87-yard, two-interception performance against the Packers in Week 12, a game in which he also suffered a concussion that forced him to miss Week 13. The second-year signal-caller came back last Sunday looking like he benefited from a bit of a reset. McCarthy played like a different quarterback while throwing for three touchdowns and not turning the ball over against the Commanders in Week 14.
However, looks can certainly be deceiving at times when it comes to quarterbacks that are still firmly in their NFL learning curve, and that could bear out on Sunday night. Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell had the luxury of playing it very safe with McCarthy against Washington thanks to game script, and ultimately, he attempted just 23 passes and threw for a modest 163 yards.
O'Connell doesn't figure to have anywhere near the same luxury against the Cowboys, which have pretty much diced up any defense put in front of them. Dallas has only been outscored by the Lions and Seahawks, and the Cowboys are averaging 32.7 points per home game and a league-high 431 yards pe contest in that split as well.
The Vikings have been a much more effective defense at home (17.7 PPG allowed) than on the road (25.0 PPG allowed). Minnesota therefore figures to give up its fair share of points to Dak Prescott and company, who have an implied team total of 26.5 points. The more McCarthy drops back against a Cowboys defense that's been quietly improving as the season has gone on, the higher the likelihood he'll be baited into a mistake or two that can set up premium field position for the elite offense on the other sideline.
Consequently, I see the Cowboys emerging with a victory here in a must-win game for them, and pairing a moneyline bet with a very attainable passing yardage figure for Prescott is a solid same-game parlay. Then, with Minnesota surrendering 133.3 rushing yards per road game, we'll also bank on Javonte Williams, who's functioning as a workhorse back, to put together another solid all-around effort.
Vikings vs. Cowboys Best Bets:
- SGP: Cowboys moneyline and Dak Prescott 250+ passing yards (+104 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Javonte Williams Over 82.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Vikings vs. Cowboys Prediction
Cowboys 27, Vikings 21
If the Cowboys had a defense as lethally consistent as their offense, they'd be in the upper echelon of either conference. Nevertheless, that imbalance shouldn't be as big a factor in this matchup, as McCarthy still has plenty of growing pains and O'Connell won't have much choice but to have to unleash him to an extent in order to ensure he can keep up with Dallas. Consequently, while I think points are scored here, a key mistake at some point will tilt the game in favor of the home team.
