NFL Best Ball Guide: Using Contest Selection to Maximize Expected Value

Contest selection is an unsexy topic, widely acknowledged as important yet rarely treated as such. The good news? We don't need a 5,000-word essay to master this topic. 

Broadly speaking, there are five decisions we need to make:

1. Pick a Platform  (Underdog, DraftKings, Drafters, FFPC, etc.)
2. Tournament vs. Cash Game
3. Entry Fee
4. Contest Details (total points vs. playoffs; superflex vs. 1QB; etc.)
5. Timing of Entry

The first mistake people make from an expected value (EV) standpoint is deciding part No. 1 (the platform) before anything else. It's reasonable to stick with one platform if we're only drafting a few teams, or if we don't care about EV and just want some lottery tickets.

But if the goal is to maximize our chances of winning while drafting more than a few dozen teams, it's wise to give strong consideration to multiple platforms. Not doing so is an immediate EV loss.

Personally, I don't care about the software as long as it's semi-functional, nor do I care where the cool kids are playing. The two things I do care about? 

A) Having fun. 

B) Getting my money the best I can in +EV spots. 

For me, the strategic challenge of EV optimization is a huge part of the fun, so it kind of just ends up blending together.

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Best Ball Contest Selection: Maximizing EV

The things I focus on to optimize EV via contest selection are pretty simple:

1. Timing of Entry
2. Soft Competition
3. Bonus Hunting

Time is Money

In best ball, timing matters in so many ways, and I probably can't do the topic justice in this article. But let's give it a go:

• For one thing, there's a definite advantage to be had when best-ball season first opens in February. The default ranks/ADPs to open the year tend to be poor on most sites, but people will still look to them as a guide for what's likely to happen. Spotting undervalued players isn't too hard if we're thorough, and strong knowledge of stuff like potential cap cuts and trade situations is immensely helpful for late-round picks.
• There's also an edge to be had in the immediate aftermath of the busy free-agency week (usually the second week of March) and then in the aftermath of the NFL Draft. With so many huge value swings, the market needs at least a few days before ADPs somewhat stabilize.
  • There are always a surprising number of cases where we can easily secure closing line value (CLV) and draft a guy a round later than where he'll be going next week. 
• If that's not enough, consider that the default rank/ADP hack can also apply to contests that open in May or July, not just the ones in February. 
  • For example, the ongoing $10 superflex contest on Drafters opened with some wonky ADPs in early July. Those corrected within a week or two, with the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ashton Jeanty rightly shooting ahead of low-end QB1 and QB2s that had previously been ranked ahead of them. Teams that drafted early were able to get unique player combinations that are now impossible, not to mention getting great value on the likes of Jeanty and ARSB (among others).
• Last but not least, I want to briefly touch on so-called cash games, a.k.a., leagues where there are only 12 teams (or 6, or 3) and no larger tournament/contest. It's hard to get a lot of money down on these throughout the offseason, and even when drafts fill, it'll often be a league dominated by highly skilled players. 
  • If we want softer competition in cash games, the best place to find it is on DraftKings in August and early September.

Targeting Soft Competition

There are plenty of sharp players who aren't playing a ton of volume, but it is generally a good rule that we prefer to face people with less experience/volume. DraftKings has the reputation for attracting the "casual" crowd, but while that may be true in any given draft, the ADPs don't end up being too different from those on Underdog and Drafters. By reputation, Drafters and FFPC are considered to have tougher competition, while Underdog seems to inspire strong views at all ends of the spectrum.

I think it's fair to say that FFPC and Drafters have slightly tougher competition than the other two sites, but I'm sure there's someone who would happily disagree with me.

Regardless of the site, we should revert back to my first point: timing is everything. If we're drafting on a Monday morning in March, we can't expect to face many casual players. A Sunday night in late August (or even a slow draft in August) might be a different story, attracting casual players who are more likely to make mistakes. 

There are some who swear by drafting early in the summer for large tournaments – as many of the winners in big contests have – but I also think there's a very strong argument for drafting at the absolute latest part of the summer. (It also helps if the scheduled reductions on the 8-hour pick clock catch our opponents off-guard and put them on auto-draft as Week 1 approaches).

Hunting for Bonuses

Most sites have some kind of promotion, be it 'Best Ball Week' on DraftKings or the steady offering of free entries on Drafters (one ticket after 10 drafts, another after 25 drafts, etc.). When used optimally, these free contest tickets can essentially cancel out part of the rake, or at least that's how I like to think of it.

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