Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 9

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Another subpar week at 5-7-2, and it was looking more dire than that before the Sunday and Monday night games, both of which I won. Again, I'm not going to dwell much on the past except to note my disappointing record to date.

This week, I particularly like the Steelers, Giants, Eagles and Jets. I'll make the Steelers a best bet (5-3-2 so far on those), and I might add one or two more in the comments.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Browns +11 at Bengals

I've been burned the last two weeks taking big Thursday night underdogs (49ers, Dolphins) against division rivals (Seahawks, Patriots), only to wind up on the wrong side of a blowout. I fear it'll happen again this week, but you can't let past trauma dictate present decision making. Take the Browns.

Bengals 23 - 13

EARLY GAMES

Raiders +4.5 at Steelers

I've wrongly sold the Raiders short so often this year, but why stop now? Seriously, I like them better at home (or apparently their home away from home, San Diego), but not in Pittsburgh. I expect the Steelers offense to get it together this week. Lay the points

Steelers 30 - 20

Jaguars +6.5 at Jets

The Jets defense got exposed by the Raiders in Oakland last week, but it's still a top-five unit, and I doubt the Jaguars will be up to the task in New York. Back the Jets.

Jets 24 - 10

Rams +2 at Vikings

Unless Nick Foles gives this one away, I think the Rams should handle a smoke-and-mirrors Vikings squad. Back St. Louis.

Rams 23 - 20

Dolphins +3 at Bills

The Bills killed the Dolphins in Miami, but that was during the Joe Philbin era. It's hard to know how much better the Dan Campbell version is because they crushed two doormats and got blown out by arguably the best team of the last five years. Still, I'll take the points here as the Bills receivers are banged up, and Tyrod Taylor could be rusty.

Bills 24 - 23

Titans +9.5 at Saints

I want to fade both these teams, but if Marcus Mariota plays, this is probably enough points against one of the league's worst defenses. Back the Titans.

Saints 27 - 20

Redskins +14 at Patriots

Scott Pianowski tweeted that the Patriots have gone 59 percent against the spread during Bill Belichick's tenure. Think about that - for all the effort we put into handicapping these games, you'd have done better simply betting the Patriots every week. You'd think the market would have priced that in by now, but apparently it hasn't. Perhaps, a rare team that keeps scoring when it's got the game sewn up breaks the traditional models used to set lines. While the Redskins aren't the worst team in the league, they're in the bottom third and playing in New England. Lay the wood.

Patriots 41 - 23

Packers -2.5 at Panthers

While last week's Packers line made little sense, I'm more on board with this one. The Panthers have a good defense, but it's not as tough as Denver's, and Carolina's coming off an emotional win and a short week. Take Green Bay.

Packers 24 - 21

LATE GAMES

Falcons -7 at 49ers

I don't know how high this line would have to be for me to take the Jim Tomsula/Blaine Gabbert 49ers, but it's more than seven. And keep in mind this is an Atlanta team that (1) Doesn't play well on the road; (2) Was life and death with the Redskins at home a three weeks ago; (3) Beat the Ken Whisenpunt Titans 10-7 two weeks ago; and (4) lost at home to the Bucs last week. But I'm still laying the wood.

Falcons 27 - 10

Giants -2.5 at Buccaneers

The Giants defense has been awful, but the offense is a different animal with a healthy Odell Beckham. There's a chance New York gets Prince Amukamara back too. Lay the wood.

Giants 31 - 24

Broncos -4.5 at Colts

The Broncos looked great last week, but now's a good time to sell high against a Colts squad that has played them tough the last couple years. I have no idea what's wrong with Andrew Luck, or whether Indy will fix it, but there's a good chance of a backdoor cover, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts win outright. Back Indy.

Colts 23 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Eagles -2.5 at Cowboys

The Cowboys beat the Eagles in Philly, but I expect DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews to have big days against a soft run defense, and Matt Cassel won't move the ball consistently enough to keep up. Take the Eagles.

Eagles 27 - 19

MONDAY NIGHT

Bears +4 at Chargers

A couple weeks ago, I made the mistake of laying four with the Chargers at home against the Raiders, not realizing how negligible San Diego's home field advantage is. I won't make it again. Back the Bears in what should be a close game.

Chargers 33 - 30

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I went 5-7-2 in Week 8 to bring my record to 48-66-5 on the year. I'm 5-3-2 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.