Beating The Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 8

I'm having a bad year so far, and last week (5-9) was more of the same. I lost my best bet (Broncos) badly despite the Chiefs losing the NFL MVP in the first quarter, and my Super Contest picks went 1-4. It is what it is. 

I ran an experiment last week of making my Week 7 lines before the Week 6 games, and those would have gone 10-2-2, the pushes being games where my pre-Week-6 lines matched the actual ones. That doesn't mean I should make all my picks based on early lines going forward -- the results are from only one week -- but it's an indicator I might be getting overly swayed by recent results. 

This week I especially like the Seahawks, Jets and Packers and feel shaky about the Chargers and Colts. 

For the podcast version of the article -- usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Redskins +16 at Vikings

I don't like being on the Redskins, but I made the line 13.5, and this strikes me as too many points. 

Vikings 27 - 13

EARLY GAMES

Giants +7 at Lions

I made this line 6.5. The Lions haven't generated a pass rush of late, just lost Kerryon Johnson and traded slot corner/safety Quandre Diggs to the Seahawks this week as they look to the future. The Giants defense played decently besides the three big runs to Chase Edmunds last week, and Daniel Jones should be better if he's not under heavy pressure. Take the points. 

Lions 24 - 20

Buccaneers +2.5 at Titans

Maybe we should stick to our priors about Ryan Tannehill rather than rate him as an upgrade after one good game, but Tannehill was serviceable at times in Miami -- 7.7 YPA in 2016 -- and was able to get Corey Davis and A.J. Brown involved. I made this line three, so I'll lay the wood. 

Titans 26 - 23

Chargers +4 at Bears

The Chargers are wandering in dark woods now that they've lost guard Forrest Lamp in addition to left tackle Russell Okung and center Mike Pouncey. It's pretty much worst-case scenario to be encountering Bears. But the Bears offense is also bad, and the Chargers defense can get after the passer too. I made this line 3.5 which puts me on the Chargers, but I don't feel great about it. 

Bears 20 - 16

Seahawks -3.5 at Falcons

I made this line 6.5. The Falcons seem beyond repair, and that's even assuming Matt Ryan will be fine to play. Lay the wood. 

Seahawks 31 - 23

Jets +6 at Jaguars

I loved the Jets getting 9.5 at home against the Pats, and I could not have been more wrong. Actually, I was more wrong about the Broncos, but only by a small amount. But the Jets are a buy-low now, and six is too much for a pedestrian Jaguars squad to be laying. Take the points. 

Jaguars 20 - 19

Eagles +1.5 at Bills

The Eagles got destroyed last week, mostly because they couldn't protect Carson Wentz, but I think they match up well against the Bills and their erratic passing offense. Take the points. 

Eagles 23 - 17

Bengals +13 vs. Rams (in London)

The Bengals are an abomination, but 13 points on a neutral site is too much for a Rams squad that is merely decent, but not great. Take the points. 

Rams 27 - 16

Cardinals +9.5 at Saints

It's unclear whether Drew Brees will play this week, but I'm not sure it matters much at this point. Teddy Bridgewater has been good, and Brees could be rusty if he does come back. The Cardinals had a fierce pass rush last week, but the Saints offensive line might be the best in the NFL, and the defense is stout too. Lay the wood. 

Saints 30 - 17

Broncos +6 at Colts

I made this line 6.5, and that was before the Broncos dealt Emmanuel Sanders, signaling they're playing for the future. I don't like buying the Colts high off a huge win, though, and with the exception of the Chiefs game, Denver's kept pace every week. I'm laying the wood, but not especially confident about it. 

Colts 23 - 16

LATE GAMES

Raiders +6.5 at Texans

I'd like to buy both teams low, but I made the line 4.5, so I'm on the Raiders who I think should keep it relatively close. Take the points. 

Texans 23 - 20

Panthers +5.5 at 49ers

Kyle Allen has played well, but I think this is the test he fails against one of the league's best defenses. I made this line 6.5, so I'm laying the wood. 

49ers 24 - 13

Browns +13 at Patriots

I wanted to be on the Browns, so I was concerned when the line opened at 10.5 (I have it at 11.5) and relieved when after the annihilation of the Jets it moved up to 13. The Patriots defense has destroyed everything put in front of it, but sadly the Browns are the best offense they've faced to date. Take the points. 

Patriots 24 - 13

SUNDAY NIGHT

Packers -4.5 at Chiefs

I made this line an insane 7.5 because I didn't want the Matt Moore Chiefs off the Denver win. I don't believe in the defense, one massive week notwithstanding, and the Packers offensive line has been one of the best in the league. Aaron Rodgers looks like the vintage version, and the only thing that gives me pause is Andy Reid's track record with extra prep time. Still, I'm laying the wood. 

Packers 27 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Dolphins +14.5 at Steelers

The Steelers might kill them, but this is a crazy line when your quarterback is Mason Rudolph. Take the points. 

Steelers 27 - 19

For the podcast version of the article -- usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

Last week, I went 5-9, lost my best bet (the Broncos), and went 1-4 in the Super Contest. I'm now 44-62 on the year, 3-4 on best bets and 12-22-1 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.