Spencer Torkelson

Torkelson had an underwhelming rookie campaign in 2022 with just eight home runs and a .604 OPS in 110 games, but he found his footing during his sophomore season with 31 long balls, 94 RBI, 88 runs and a .233/.313/.446 slash line. The counting stats are impressive given the production came as a member of Detroit's poor offense, which ranked 27th with an 89 wRC+. His defense at first base still leaves plenty to be desired, and he could see more run at designated hitter going forward with Miguel Cabrera headed for retirement. Torkelson's strikeout rate worsened slightly to 25.0 percent, but he improved his walk rate a bit to 10.0 percent. The real progress came in hard contact, as he significantly improved his barrel rate and hard-hit rate (to 14.1 percent and 50.5 percent, respectively). A .252 xBA and .480 xSLG also indicate some unfortunate luck for Torkelson, so it wouldn't be surprising if he takes another step forward in 2024.

Torkelson is a cautionary tale that prospect hype doesn't always translate to immediate MLB success. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft made his much-anticipated debut on Opening Day 2022 but never really got going for the Tigers. He batted .190 in April with a 33.8 percent strikeout rate, which set the tone for the rest of his rookie season. Torkelson was optioned to Triple-A Toledo in July to help get him back on track, and he returned to Detroit in September. He was marginally better over the final month of the season, batting .219 with a 21.7 percent strikeout rate. Overall, it was a disappointing campaign for the 23-year-old, but fantasy managers should remain patient. Torkelson was regarded as an elite hitter during his time at Arizona State, and prospects sometimes just take a little longer to get comfortable in the majors. The Tigers are also still very much in rebuilding mode, so they should have plenty of playing time available for Torkelson. If he gets off to a better start in his second season, he could hit his stride and never look back.

Torkelson, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft, climbed through the three highest levels of the minors in his first pro season and has made the Tigers' Opening Day roster to begin the 2022 campaign. All told, he hit .267/.383/.552 with 30 home runs, a 21.5 K% and a 14.5 BB% in 121 games, with his production getting slightly worse as he moved up the ladder. To cap things off, he hit .450 with eight walks and five strikeouts in seven Arizona Fall League games before a sprained ankle ended his run there. He excels at getting the ball in the air, logging groundball rates below 36% at every stop. For now, it seems Torkelson will be power over hit and better in OBP leagues than AVG leagues, but we're working with just one year's worth of data. Torkelson split time between first base and third base at High-A and Double-A, but he played first base exclusively at Triple-A, and that's his presumptive home in the majors. Seen as one of the best college hitters of the past couple decades, the Arizona State product hasn't notably increased or decreased his stock since entering pro ball, but he's expected to be the primary option at first for Detroit this year.

Perhaps the biggest question with last year's No. 1 overall pick is which position he will end up at. Torkelson has been labeled a generational college hitter by many evaluators -- one who projects to hit for big-time power with at least a plus hit tool. He has yet to play in an official minor-league game, but nothing about his offensive profile has changed since the draft, and he got plenty of quality reps at the alternate site and in fall instructs. However, in a surprising move, the Tigers have developed him strictly as a third baseman after Torkelson played first base exclusively at Arizona State. He says the transition has gone well and he expects to be able to handle the hot corner with more reps. There may be years where he is eligible at both corner-infield spots, but short of that, it doesn't really matter for fantasy. He could debut as early as this summer if he performs as expected.