Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 8

For the podcast version of this article, click here. To subscribe, here.

It was another bad week (5-9), and what was just a bad four-week stretch is turning into a bad year. I used to get enraged and stew over it, but for some reason I'm not that bothered. It's not that I don't care, but more that I don't mind. Week 8 is a clean slate, and I'm hoping to go 14-0. I'm like a cornerback who got beat for a TD, and I put it out of my mind on the next series.

While I want to complain about some bad beats and games that could have gone either way, if I look at last week honestly, I had the Colts as a best bet, the Texans and the Chargers (who I almost made a best bet), and the Jets only covered due to a 55-yard Nick Folk field goal, i.e., I was on the wrong side of a few blowouts, and it could have been worse than 5-9.

This week, I especially like the Jets, Bears, Steelers, Texans and Colts - I'll consider one or more for best bets in the comments, while the Cowboys-Seahawks, Broncos-Packers and Cardinals-Browns gave me the most trouble.

Once again the comments were great last week. Keep them coming.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Dolphins +8 at Patriots

The Patriots are in the midst of another historic season, but the Dolphins have given them a hard time in recent years, and Miami has the pass rush to disrupt Tom Brady. I'll take the points.

Patriots 27 - 23

EARLY EARLY GAME

Lions +4.5 at Chiefs (in London)

When I initially looked at this game, I thought the line was about right for a game in Arrowhead. When I saw it was on a neutral field, the Lions were the easy call. While I hate backing a Jim Caldwell team, I also hate taking an Andy Reid one, so it mercifully cancels itself out. Moreover, the firing of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi can only be a plus.

Lions 23 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Vikings -1 at Bears

I think the Vikings might be a little bit smoke and mirrors, and as I mentioned in the podastJay Cutler seems like he really DGAF, but in a good way this year, i.e., he looks relaxed and like he's having fun for the first time since he left Denver. Back the Bears.

Bears 20 - 16

Buccaneers +7 at Falcons

The Falcons offense should get back on track at home against the Bucs, but I don't see Atlanta stopping Mike Evans, either, and Jameis Winston is getting better. Back the Bucs in a shootout.

Falcons 31 - 30

Giants +3 at Saints

I like the Giants as a road dog, and the Saints home field advantage isn't what it used to be. Moreover the Giants defense isn't good right now, but the Saints almost never throw deep, so they'll have to sustain a lot of long drives. Back New York.

Giants 27 - 24

49ers +8.5 at Rams

I thought this line might be as high as 10, and at 8.5, I'm laying the wood. This is a bad matchup for Colin Kaepernick, and Todd Gurley might run for another 150 yards this week. Back the Rams.

Rams 31 - 13

Cardinals -5 at Browns

This game gave me a fair amount of trouble. Normally, I'd take the home dog, but Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson both missed the last couple games, and I'm not sure if either is playing this week, in which case Carson Palmer should light them up. But I'm also not sold on Arizona's defense being anything special, and I think the Browns will move the ball. I suppose I'll take the home dog, but I don't feel strongly about it.

Cardinals 27 - 23

Bengals -1.5 at Steelers

I think the Bengals are for real, but with Ben Roethlisberger expected back, I don't like them laying points in Pittsburgh against arguably the league's second-best offense. Back the Steelers.

Steelers 30 - 24

Chargers +3 at Ravens

The Chargers are a better bet as a road dog than a home favorite (I arrived at that conclusion one week too late), but the Ravens, who went toe-to-toe with the Cardinals in Arizona, strike me as the better-rounded team. I'm laying the points.

Ravens 27 - 20

Titans +4 at Texans

The Texans have been awful, but the Titans are arguably the worst team in the NFL, irrespective of who's playing quarterback. And no one is more poorly coached. Back Houston.

Texans 23 - 17

LATE GAMES

Jets -2 at Raiders

The Raiders are obviously improved, and I've been wrong on them a lot this season. But I think the Jets are easily a top-10 NFL team, and I'm happy to take them laying less than three.

Jets 23 - 10

Seahawks -6 at Cowboys

This game also gave me some problems. The obvious call is Seattle after what they did to the Niners last week, given that Matt Cassel isn't any better than Kaepernick. But the Cowboys offensive line manhandled the Seahawks in Seattle last year, and the team's pass rush should get to the sack-prone Russell Wilson quite a bit. Still I'll take the Seahawks.

Seahawks 20 - 13

SUNDAY NIGHT

Packers -3 at Broncos

This is a strange line between two undefeated teams. You'd think it would be Packers *plus* three in Denver, not the other way around, especially given how mediocre the Packers are on the road, how banged up their receiving corps is and how good Denver's defense is. Lines that don't make sense make me nervous, but I'll do the obvious and take Denver.

Packers 21 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Colts +7 at Panthers

I must be the last person on the planet to realize how terrible the Colts are, and Andrew Luck is part of that so far this year. At times, I thought I was watching Jason Campbell, given how long he held the ball and how many sacks he took. Still, as moronic as it probably is, I like Indy here to play better against an undefeated team that's not as good as its record. Back the Colts.

Panthers 24 - 23

I went 5-9 in Week 7 to bring my record to 43-59-3 on the year. I'm 5-3-2 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.