Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 7 - With Video

I expected a correction to my hot start to come at some point - just not necessarily all in one week. Not only did I go 4-11 ATS, but worse, all four of my best bets lost, putting me at .500 in that department. One mistake I made was choosing too many teams as top choices. There are some weeks I probably should choose no teams as best bets, while others there can be four or five. When you're on a roll, it's easy to talk yourself into a little extra action.

This week, I struggled particularly with Bengals/Colts, Titans/Redskins (guarantee I would lose it no matter what side I chose), Saints/Lions, Niners/Broncos and Texans/Steelers.

My best bets are the Ravens and Bills for now, but I might add or subtract in the comments.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Jets +9.5 at Patriots

Taking the dogs on Thursday night has mostly been a disaster so far, but the value here has got to be with the Jets as the Pats are a public team coming off two impressive wins, while the Jets are doormat no one wants to touch. But this is a big number for two teams that know each other so well, and the short week probably isn't as big of a deal since it's such a short trip. Back NY.

Patriots 24 - 17

EARLY GAMES

Bengals +3 at Colts

I've been fading the Colts a lot this year, and it's burned me, and I'm also not a big fan of Cincy on the road, especially missing so many key offensive weapons. I want to do the easy thing and take the team that's on a roll, but the Bengals - who have the better defense - and are suddenly more desperate are probably the right play. Back Cincinnati.

Bengals 20 - 17

Titans +5.5 at Redskins

The Titans disgust me, in part because I've backed them too often - how I wish they'd lost outright to the Jaguars once they blew the cover - and in part because I dislike Ken Whisenpunt possibly more than any NFL coach. It's not good to get personal about a team because it can cause bias, but it's also not going to stop me from fading them. Back Washington.

Redskins 27 - 20

Dolphins +3 at Bears

These are roughly equal teams, and the line reflects that. I'd expect the game to be competitive in which case I'll take the points.

Bears 24 - 23

Browns -5 at Jaguars

The Browns have been a nice story so far, but without their starting center they probably shouldn't be laying five on the road against anyone. Back the Jaguars.

Jaguars 20 - 19

Seahawks -7 at Rams

You don't want to overrate one game, but the Seahawks offensive line was awful, and they couldn't stretch the field at all. Moreover, they've struggled to generate a pass rush. The Rams are bad, but desperate, and they know the Seahawks well. My biggest worry here is a late pick six or fumble return to give the Seahawks a backdoor cover, but I'm still taking the Rams.

Seahawks 20 - 14

Panthers +7 at Packers

When Cam Newton plays well and runs the ball, the Panthers offense is actually good. Given he was able to do it in Cincinnati, he should be able to match that in Green Bay. Back Carolina.

Packers 27 - 23

Falcons +7 at Ravens

Normally, I'd buy low on the Falcons and sell high on the Ravens, but I hate the Falcons on the road, like the Ravens especially at home, and this line's not that big. Back Baltimore.

Ravens 31 - 16

Vikings +4.5 at Bills

The Lions defense is apparently good, but Teddy Bridgewater looked terrible Sunday, and the Bills are a decent team despite the bad loss against the Pats. Lay the wood here.

Bills 24 - 16

Saints +3 at Lions

This game oddly gave me the most trouble. I rarely back the Lions because Matt Stafford is overrated, and without Calvin Johnson, I don't like the offense much. But the Saints defense has been awful, and they don't travel well. In the Saints favor is their off week and desperation, and in the Lions favor is their seemingly world-beating defense. I'll probably regret this, but give me New Orleans.

Saints 24 - 20

LATE GAMES

Chiefs +4 at Chargers

These strike me as roughly equal teams (maybe the Chargers are slightly better), but I expect this game to go down to the wire. Take the points.

Chargers 26 - 23

Giants +6.5 at Cowboys

The Giants' no-show against the Eagles was mind-boggling, but not unforeseeable given their abandonment of the no-huddle against the Falcons the week prior. Now they're missing Victor Cruz and likely Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie against a Dallas team that destroyed the Seahawks in Seattle. Still, if ever there were a buy-low, sell-high, this is it. Back New York.

Cowboys 24 - 21

Cardinals -3.5 at Raiders

The Raiders have looked like a real team at times - both at New England and in their home loss against San Diego - but with Carson Palmer back, I'll lay the wood here. Back the Cardinals.

Cardinals 27 - 23

SUNDAY NIGHT

49ers +6.5 at Broncos

I'm not sure how much losing Patrick Willis will hurt with NaVorro Bowman already out, but my inclination is to take the points here in a game between two good teams. Denver always has blowout potential, but the Niners are better coached, and Colin Kaepernick is playing better. Back San Francisco.

Broncos 30 - 24

MONDAY NIGHT

Texans +3.5 at Steelers

How can anyone handicap the Steelers? One week they blow out the Panthers in Carolina and the next they lose to the Bucs at home. I suppose after the Browns loss, I have to take Houston with the hook, but I have no idea what will happen here. Back the Texans.

Texans 21 - 20

I went 4-11 in Week 6 to put me at 53-36-2 on the season. Best bets are 9-9-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.