Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 7

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It was great to have a winning (8-5-1) week, though I'd have preferred it come before Week 6. Actually, I was 8-7-1 in Week 1, so my losing streak was only Weeks 2-5, though it seemed much longer than that. I also went 1-0-1 on best bets, winning with the Saints and pushing with the Lions to bring that record to 5-2-2.

This week, I especially like the Colts (best bet), and I also had an easy time with the Jets and Chargers (possibly best bets - check the comments.) I had the most trouble with the Steelers-Chiefs, Texans-Dolphins and Eagles-Panthers.

I also wanted to point out how robust and useful the comment section has been this year - keep it coming, please!

THURSDAY NIGHT

Seahawks -6.5 at 49ers

I'll probably be wrong about this because it's so obvious, but this is a massive line for the 2-4 Seahawks to lay on the road on a short week. Plus Colin Kaepernick doesn't look like a deer in headlights anymore. I have little faith in Kaepernick keeping it up, and I could easily see last year's Seahawks showing up, but I'm not willing to bet on it. Back the 49ers.

Seahawks 20 - 17

EARLY EARLY GAME

Bills -5.5 vs. Jaguars (in London)

It looks like Tyrod Taylor might return, the Bills need this game desperately and they're drawing the right opponent. Back Buffalo.

Bills 27 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Browns +5.5 at Rams

Todd Gurley should run for 200 yards, but I think Cleveland moves the ball here and stays in this game. Give me the points.

Rams 24 - 20

Steelers -2 at Chiefs

In the podcast I vowed never again to take the Chiefs and even declared I'd rather be wrong with Pittsburgh than right with Kansas City, but in the sober light of day, I realize that's not true. I despise Andy Reid, and I hate myself for doing this, but I'll take the home dog with Landry Jones likely under center. Jones played well against Arizona, but the Cardinals had prepared for Michael Vick, and I'm betting Jones gets exposed in Arrowhead. Back the Chiefs unless Ben Roethlisberger suits up.

Chiefs 24 - 20

Texans +4.5 at Dolphins

I initially had the Dolphins here, but I'm having second thoughts. Just as Miami had a defensive resurgence against a vulnerable opponent, Houston could do the same, given its similarly talented personnel. And I'm starting to think Brian Hoyer might be decent in a Josh McCown, Ryan Fitzpatrick sort of way. I don't like switching my initial pick, but in retrospect it felt forced, i.e., I kept betting on the Miami correction and cashed in when it happened, but now it's priced in. Back Houston.

Dolphins 27 - 23

Jets +9 at Patriots

The Patriots are really good, but nine against the Jets? The Jets have arguably the best defense in the NFL (and they just got Sheldon Richardson back last week), and their offense is above average. The Patriots got to Andrew Luck last week, but the Jets offensive line is better than Indy's. Take the points.

Patriots 27 - 23

Vikings -2.5 at Lions

Backing the Lions is miserable - even in a game of which they were in control they muff two punts and throw an interception at the worst possible time. Still, I'll hold my nose and stick with them as home dogs against a Vikings team that might or might not be any good. Back Detroit.

Lions 23 - 20

Falcons -4.5 at Titans

One thing I hate - but apparently I'm doing - is backing teams with terrible coaches. There's nothing worse than watching them give a coverable game away for no reason except fear and misunderstanding basic principles of probability. That said, I'm taking the Titans here against a team that doesn't travel especially well and that's not as good as its record. Back Tennessee.

Falcons 28 - 24

Buccaneers +3.5 at Redskins

I had been taking the Redskins the last several weeks because they're so "scrappy," and there's no shame in losing to the Jets on the road. But without DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed, this is a bad offense, and I'm not comfortable laying more than three. Back Tampa.

Buccaneers 24 - 23

Saints +4.5 at Colts

The Saints had a perfect setup last week, catching the division-rival Falcons at home on Thursday night. But I'm not buying into a defensive resurgence, and Andrew Luck should shred them on his home field. Back the Colts.

Colts 34 - 23

LATE GAMES

Raiders +4 at Chargers

This has to be a trap because if the line were seven, I'd think for a second longer and still take the Chargers. Why are these teams being priced as if they're nearly equal? Again, I don't know, and it makes me nervous when that's the case, but it won't push me off the obvious pick. Back San Diego.

Chargers 33 - 17

Cowboys +3.5 at Giants

The Giants are capable of epic no-shows the last few years, and Monday night's game was a case in point. While normally that would make them an easy buy-low, it's not unusual for them to disappoint for several games in a row. That said, even without Prince Amukamara or a completely healthy Odell Beckham, they should be favored by more than this against a Dallas team that's above average in only one area, the offensive line. Back the Giants.

Giants 27 - 17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Eagles +3 at Panthers

This game gave me a lot of trouble. Initially I had the Eagles winning 27-24, but that was before I contemplated how horribly Sam Bradford has been playing and that he's going up against one of the league's best defenses on the road. That said, I'll stick to my guns. If Bradford plays okay, i.e., one pick only, I think the Eagles defense keeps them in this, and they pull it out. Back Philly.

Eagles 27 - 24

MONDAY NIGHT

Ravens +7.5 at Cardinals

The Cardinals beat up on a lot of bad teams before being surprised in Pittsburgh. Unless the Ravens drastically improve their pass defense, Carson Palmer should light them up, but I expect Joe Flacco to keep Baltimore more or less in the game - at least close enough for a backdoor cover. Back the Ravens.

Cardinals 33 - 27

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I went 8-5-1 in Week 6 to bring my record to 38-50-3 on the year. I'm 5-2-2 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.