Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 4

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I had another 6-10 week which isn't doing my overall record any favors, but I went 2-1 on my best bets, winning with the Eagles and Cardinals, while losing with the Colts, putting me at 3-1 on those so far on the season. I don't want to minimize the season-long aspect - I'm in a pool where you pick every game, and I'm not doing well so far - but the best bets are the ones on which I'd put real money were I in Vegas. I also went 1-4 on coin flip games, and those are dumb luck whichever way they turn out.

This week, I don't have any best bets. The sides I like the most are the Ravens, Colts, Texans and Giants. Coin flips are Bengals-Chiefs, Raiders-Bears and Lions-Seahawks.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Ravens -2.5 at Steelers

While it's hard to imagine the Ravens going 0-4, it's not so hard once they're already 0-3. In that case you simply have to imagine them going 0-1 from this point forward. That said, I do think they're a desperate animal at this point, and they'll handle the Michael Vick Steelers (who have only a short week to prepare with a backup QB.) Back Baltimore.

Ravens 27 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Jets -2 vs. Dolphins (in London)

The Jets have been the better team so far this year, and the Dolphins looked awful last week, but these were roughly equal teams coming into the year, and I don't think anything has fundamentally changed about them. I don't feel strongly here, but give me Miami with the two points.

Dolphins 21 - 20

Jaguars +9 at Colts

I despise the Colts, who are probably the softest and worst-coached team in the league. Their offensive line is awful and their defense isn't much better. Still, at home, I think Andrew Luck lights up the Jaguars, and Blake Bortles gifts Indy some points as he's wont to do. Back Indy.

Colts 31 - 17

Texans +6.5 at Falcons

The Falcons are off to a good start, and they're tougher at home, but if you look at their wins, they probably should have lost to both Philly and the Giants, and Dallas without Tony Romo or Dez Bryant was beating up on them for two and a half quarters. I think these teams are probably rough equals, and this is too many points. Back Houston.

Falcons 27 - 24

Panthers -3 at Buccaneers

I struggled on this one, but my inclination is to take the home dog. Carolina's off to a good start, but they had a lot of trouble at home against the toothless Saints last week, and it looks like Mike Evans is finally healthy again. Back Tampa.

Buccaneers 24 - 23

Giants +5.5 at Bills

The Bills look like a low-end playoff team at this point, but the Giants should be 2-1 and possibly 3-0 had they not botched the end games in Weeks 1 and 2. I think the Giants defense keeps this one close, and this game goes down to the wire. Back New York.

Bills 20 - 19

Raiders -3 at Bears

I hate this game. The Raiders have been so much better than the Bears early on, but laying points with Oakland on the road? I'll take the Bears who should have Alshon Jeffery back and don't want to be embarrassed in front of the home crowd.

Bears 23 - 19

Eagles -3 at Redskins

The Eagles offense has been sluggish to start the year, but I attribute that to Sam Bradford being new to the offense and not being in sync with his receivers yet. This game is a good chance for him to get going as DeAngelo Hall is out, and Kirk Cousins will probably turn it over a couple times, setting up short fields. Back the Eagles.

Eagles 31 - 20

Chiefs +4 at Bengals

If I knew the Chiefs would open it up like they did in the fourth quarter against the Packers, I'd probably take the points, but I expect them to go back to their dink and dunk ways, and as such, I don't think they'll keep pace with the Bengals at home. Back Cincy.

Bengals 28 - 20

LATE GAMES

Browns +7.5 at Chargers

The decision to start Josh McCown over last year's first-round pick is tantamount to giving up on your franchise. I'll lay the points here.

Chargers 34 - 17

Packers -9 at 49ers

I've been less contrarian the past two years, but this one is hard to pass up. The Packers looked great at home on Monday night, but they're far worse on the road, and the Niners have to be a buy-low after their abysmal showing in Arizona. Back the 49ers.

Packers 27 - 20

Vikings +6.5 at Broncos

I orignally circled the Vikings here, but during my podcast with Dalton Del Don, I was persuaded to take Denver. The line is less than seven, the Broncos are at home and they're better on both sides of the ball.

Broncos 27 - 17

Rams +7 at Cardinals

The Rams offense is Jekyll and Hyde, and mostly Hyde, while the Cardinals have started off strong and are especially tough at home. I'll lay the wood here. Back Arizona.

Cardinals 28 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Cowboys +4 at Saints

The Cowboys are better in nearly every facet of the game, except maybe at quarterback, assuming Drew Brees plays and is nearly 100 percent. But Brees might not play, and if he does, he might not be healthy. The Saints are at home, and they're desperate animals, but that gets them the win, not the cover. Back Dallas.

Saints 24 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Lions +9.5 at Seahawks

I suppose I'm taking the Lions here, but I hate aligning myself with the Matt Stafford/Jim Caldwell team. It's nauseating, and you know they're going to give it away, especially in a venue like this against an opportunistic defense. But I think it's the right play - at least until the Seahawks discover some consistency on offense. I should probably go out dinner and not watch the game though. Back Detroit.

Seahawks 20 - 13

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I went 6-10 in Week 3 to bring my record to 20-27-1 on the year. I'm 3-1 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.