Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 2

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I went 8-7-1 in Week 1 which wasn't great, but I was right about all three games I especially liked (Jets, Falcons and Bengals.) My only regret was making only the Jets an official best bet. I also went 1-3 on the coin flip games, and those are just luck.

This week, the lines were pretty tight, and I don't have a best bet as of yet. I'll add it in the comments if I do. The ones that came to me most easily were the Lions, Eagles and Packers. The coin flips were Broncos-Chiefs, Dolphins-Jaguars and Jets-Colts.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Broncos +3 at Chiefs

Peyton Manning looked awful, and there's a chance he's done. But even with a caretaker at quarterback, the Broncos would be equal to the Chiefs, and they're getting three points. Back Denver.

Broncos 20 - 19

EARLY GAMES

Texans +3 at Panthers

The Panthers stomped the Jaguars, but Blake Bortles' generosity knows no bounds. The Texans dug themselves a hole against Kansas City, but they have a good defense and more playmakers. Back Houston.

Texans 19 - 16

Buccaneers +9.5 at Saints

The Saints might not be very good, but they've usually played better at home, and going to Arizona was a tall order. I think they handle the Bucs fairly easily. Back New Orleans.

Saints 27 - 17

49ers +5.5 at Steelers

The 49ers' defense surprised me, though maybe the Teddy Bridgewater-Adrian Peterson-Norv Turner offense was hyped beyond reasonable expectations. Either way, I expect the 49ers to move the ball against the Steelers and stay in this game. Back San Francisco.

Steelers 27 - 24

Lions +3 at Vikings

Maybe the Vikings will live up to the expectations, but the Lions were good last year, and as of right now should be considered the better team. As such, I'll take them as three-point road dogs. Back Detroit.

Lions 24 - 23

Patriots -1 at Bills

Maybe Bill Belichick will scheme to confuse Tyrod Taylor, or the the Patriots will cheat again by yelling fake snap counts on defense, but if Indy had that much trouble in Buffalo, I think the Pats will find it rough going too. Moreover, the Pats defense looked soft in Pittsburgh with no Vince Wilfork or Darrelle Revis. Back Buffalo.

Bills 27 - 23

Cardinals -2 at Bears

I had a mild Cardinals lean, but Dalton Del Don, with whom I'm sharing a SuperContest entry is big on the Bears, and we talked about it as possibly one of our five picks. If we do use it, and I'm not sure we will, I'll be rooting against this, but I think Arizona will handle the hapless Bears even in their own building. Back the Cardinals.

Cardinals 24 - 19

Titans pick 'em at Browns

The Browns are the clever, fade-the-public pick, but screw that. Who's even playing quarterback for them this week? Both Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel are iffy, not that it matters. I think the Titans will run successfully on them and squeak out a win. Back the Titans.

Titans 19 - 16

Chargers +3.5 at Bengals

My first read on this is that the Bengals are good, especially at home and to lay the hook against a decent Chargers team. But I thought that 20 months ago in their playoff game, in cold weather, no less, and Philip Rivers came in and beat them, though it was mostly Andy Dalton falling apart. That's probably long enough ago it means nothing, but I had to exorcise the nagging fear by writing it. Take Cincy.

Bengals 28 - 23

Rams -3.5 at Redskins

The Rams had an impressive win over the Seahawks, but they always play especially well against Seattle even when they're otherwise not a good team. I see this as a letdown, and I'd like to see more before I'm laying three on the road with them. Back Washington.

Rams 21 - 20

Falcons +2.5 at Giants

The Falcons played well against the Eagles, but Chip Kelly botched the end game with the field-goal attempt, and in any event, Atlanta is much better at home. The Giants are likely reeling from their giveaway in Dallas, but I think their offense will bounce back against the Falcons defense. Back New York.

Giants 30 - 24

LATE GAMES

Ravens -7 at Raiders

I don't think Derek Carr is any good, and he's playing through a thumb injury. The Ravens offense is unsettled, but their defense should handle the Raiders easily, and the points will come. Lay the wood.

Ravens 23 - 13

Dolphins -6 at Jaguars

I think about as much of Blake Bortles as I do Derek Carr, but the Dolphins aren't an established team like the Ravens yet, so I'm not willing to lay this many points on the road with them. Back the Jaguars.

Dolphins 20 - 17

Cowboys +5 at Eagles

The Cowboys overcame the loss of Dez Bryant in Week 1 thanks to Tom Coughlin's gift, but I think they'll find it rough going in Philadelphia this week with Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley. Back the Eagles.

Eagles 30 - 17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Seahawks +3.5 at Packers

Maybe the Seahawks still have an elite defense, but they didn't show it against the Rams. The Packers looked more or less like the same squad from last year that was killing the Seahawks in the playoffs before Mike McCarthy gifted the game away. Back Green Bay.

Packers 24 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Jets +7 at Colts

I think the Colts might be a buy-low, though the Jets defense scares me a bit. I'll stick with my first instinct, and that's backing Indy.

Colts 28 - 20

For the podcast version of this article, click here.

I went 8-7-1 in Week 1 and 1-0 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.