Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 14

I went 10-5-1 last week, and it should have been better. I switched the Cardinals-Rams pick for the SuperContest, the Texans had it locked up before Derrick Henry went on a 75-yard scamper for no good reason, and I ignored my Cowboys gut instinct last Thursday night.

The only other losses were the Bears (picked with misgivings after the Garoppolo news) and the Broncos (which I switched to because I couldn't explain what was making me pick the Dolphins.) And the Giants push was due to the line being seven before it went to nine on the Geno Smith news.

I'm sure I lucked out in some places too, but a real man would have gone 16-0.

This week, I especially like the Browns and Raiders.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Saints -1 at Falcons

I usually like the home team off the short week, and the price is good here with the Falcons actually getting a point at home. Take Atlanta.

Falcons 23 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Lions +2* at Buccaneers

*made-up line

Matthew Stafford's status is unclear right now, so I made this Lions plus two. (The Lions would likely be at least a pick 'em, if not a favorite, should Stafford play) and a bigger dog should he miss the game. Obviously, it's a coin flip, but I'll take the Bucs.

Buccaneers 23 - 20

Bears +6 at Bengals

The Bears offense is terrible now, and the Bengals seem to have re-discovered how to run block the last couple games. This is roughly the right line, but I'll lay the wood with Cincy's solid defense and average passing game.

Bengals 20 - 13

Colts +6* at Bills

*another made-up line

Tyrod Taylor's status is unclear, and we know what a drop-off it is to Nathan Peterman if he can't go. I made the line six, splitting the difference. Again, obviously a coin flip, but I'll take the Bills.

Bills 24 - 16

Raiders +4 at Chiefs

Fading the Chiefs has been easy money of late, and until Vegas stops treating them as better than other non-doormats, there's no reason to stop. Take the Raiders who win outright.

Raiders 27 - 24

Vikings -3 at Panthers

The Panthers are a good team, but Devin Funchess is their only competent receiver, it's unclear whether Greg Olsen can go and Cam Newton has struggled against good defenses. Take the points. I had this line as Minnesota plus three instead of minus three for some reason. In that case, I'll take the points in what should be a close game. Back the Panthers.

Vikings 20 - 19

Packers -3.5 at Browns

If Josh Gordon is the real deal - and he looked the part last week - the Browns suddenly have some interesting weapons with him, Corey Coleman and David Njoku. The Packers have played better of late, but no way they should be laying more than a field goal on the road. Take the Browns. (I also have no idea why the total in this game is only 40.5.)

Browns 27 - 23

49ers +3 at Texans

What a line mover Jimmy Garoppolo is! This spread would be at least seven if C.J. Beathard were starting and maybe higher. But I'm buying the hype. Take the points.

49ers 24 - 23

Cowboys -4.5 at Giants

The Cowboys struggled early last Thursday, then manhandled the Redskins late. The Giants have Eli back which doesn't mean a whole lot. Still, maybe the emotion of the occasion and the firing of Ben McAdoo gives them a dead-cat bounce. Take the points.

Cowboys 23 - 20

LATE GAMES

Redskins +6 at Chargers

The Chargers are good, but self-destructive, and the Redskins should keep this close enough. Take the points.

Chargers 23 - 21

Jets -1 at Broncos

The Jets have been a good story this year, and the Broncos abysmal, but laying wood in Denver? This is a bridge too far. Take the home dog.

Broncos 20 - 17

Titans -3 at Cardinals

The Titans are the worst of the league's 12 projected playoff teams, and they were lucky to cover last week. Blaine Gabbert isn't good, but he's competent enough to move the ball. Take the points.

Cardinals 23 - 20

Seahawks +3 at Jaguars

I wanted to take the Jaguars here, but they moved this game to the afternoon, and that helps the Seahawks who are coming from the west coast. Take the points.

Seahawks 20 - 19

Eagles +2 at Rams

My gut says the Eagles are better than the Rams and by slightly more than this line suggests. Take the points.

Eagles 27 - 24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Ravens +5.5 at Steelers

My brain says to take the Steelers at home because they're so much better there, and the Ravens are worse on the road and missing Jimmy Smith. But even though it made perfect logical sense when I wrote it up, I had a Ravens feeling. Last week I ignored my feeling on the Dallas-Washington game at my peril. Take the Ravens.

Steelers 23 - 19

MONDAY NIGHT

Patriots -11 at Dolphins

The Patriots are covering with ease every week, but this is a massive line, Rob Gronkowski is suspended, and the Dolphins finally showed up last week. Take the points.

Patriots 27 - 20

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I went 10-5-1 against the spread in Week 13 to put me at 92-92-8 on the season. I went 5-0 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 34-30-1 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.