Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 13

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The good news is I won my best bet, the Texans, bringing that record up to 6-6-2 on the year. The bad news is I went 7-9 overall, though in my opinion the Steelers and Pats losses were bad beats.

This week, I really like the Saints, Bears, Seahawks and Steelers. Coin flips were the Bengals-Browns, Jaguars-Titans, Ravens-Dolphins, Cardinals-Rams and Chiefs-Raiders.

I'll make the Bears a "best bet," and I might add others in the comments.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Packers -3 at Lions

Normally, I'd sell high on the Lions and buy low on the Packers, but there's no indication the Packers have fixed their issues - last we saw them they were losing at home to the Bears on Thanksgiving. Bottom line, the Packers aren't coming at enough of a discount here. Take Detroit.

Packers 20 - 19

EARLY GAMES

49ers +7 at Bears

The 49ers haven't quit, and they gave the Cardinals all they could handle last week. But that was in San Francisco where they've been far tougher, and Jay Cutler, fresh off a win at Lambeau Field, is having a Pro Bowl type season. Lay the wood.

Bears 30 - 17

Bengals -9.5 at Browns

I despise the Browns, and I want to lay the wood out of principle, but this line is really out of hand, i.e., it implies it would be 15.5 in Cincinnati. Austin Davis is the QB, but I have to hold my nose and take the Browns.

Bengals 24 - 16

Jaguars +2.5 at Titans

These are roughly equal teams, but the Titans are at home and laying less than the full three. That's good enough for me. Back Tennesee.

Titans 19 - 16

Texans +3 at Bills

This is the right line between two roughly equal teams. I suppose I'll keep riding the Texans who have been fantastic on defense the last month. Take the points.

Texans 17 - 16

Ravens +4 at Dolphins

This line says "+4" but it's really Ravens "-3" when you include Matt Schaub's inevitable pick six. Still, I think Baltimore will keep it close enough. Back the Ravens.

Dolphins 24 - 23

Seahawks pick 'em at Vikings

I got the Vikings right for probably the first time all year last week, but that was only because it was insane they were getting points from the Falcons. This week, I expect the Seahawks to contain Adrian Peterson and keep the Vikings offense in check. Back Seattle.

Seahawks 24 - 17

Cardinals -5.5 at Rams

This game gave me a lot of trouble. I usually like the home dog in this situation, but the Rams passing game is so awful, it's hard to see them keeping up. Still, I'll hold my nose and take St. Louis. It's not usually about the how, just trust in the number.

Cardinals 20 - 17

Falcons +2 at Buccaneers

How many more games do the Falcons have to lose before they stop being treated as the superior team in a matchup? This line implies they're one point better than the Bucs on a neutral field, and based on their last six games, I'm not sure they're better than anyone. Take Tampa.

Buccaneers 24 - 20

Jets -2 at Giants

I don't have a strong feel for this game. I thought the Giants would be a one-point favorite or so, but anything less than three in either direction isn't a big difference. In the end, I suppose I'll take the Giants at home as their defense is playing better, and the Jets secondary apart from Darrelle Revis isn't good.

Giants 27 - 23

LATE GAMES

Broncos -4 at Chargers

The Chargers home field is essentially a neutral one, so the question is whether the Brock Osweiler Broncos are four points better. Given the vast disparity in their defenses and offensive skill players, I would say they are. Lay the points.

Broncos 27 - 17

Chiefs -3 at Raiders

The Chiefs are on a nice roll, but the Raiders seem to show up more often than not, and in Oakland, I think this should be a close game. Take the home dog.

Chiefs 23 - 21

Panthers -7 at Saints

I fade the Panthers every week, and every week I'm wrong. But I feel good about it here as the Saints are much better at home, and this is a massive line on the road (would be 13 in Carolina.) Back New Orleans.

Saints 27 - 24

Eagles +9.5 at Patriots

The Patriots are running out of offensive skill players, and their offensive line is in shambles too. But the Eagles lack of effort in a nationally televised game with the NFC East on the line was eye-opening. If they couldn't get up for that game, I don't see them keeping it together against the Patriots in Foxboro. Lay the points.

Patriots 27 - 13

SUNDAY NIGHT

Colts +7 at Steelers

It's been a great run by Matt Hasselbeck, but I think he gets exposed in a game where he'll have to throw to keep up with the Steelers offense. Lay the points.

Steelers 37 - 17

MONDAY NIGHT

Cowboys +4 at Redskins

I was going to lay the wood here because the Redskins have been good at home, and the Cowboys without Tony Romo are a doormat. But it doesn't feel right. I'll take the points.

Cowboys 20 - 19

I went 7-9 in Week 12 to bring my record to 75-95-6 on the year. I'm 6-6-2 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.