Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 11

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I went 7-7 last week, and while that doesn't sound too bad, keep in mind I lost both my best bets (Ravens and Titans) to bring that record to 5-6-2. In some ways the best bet record is a better test of one's handle on the league than the overall, since so many games are coin flips. Of course, the best bet sample is much smaller, and so both records are needed to tell the full tale - in this year's case it falls in the horror genre.

I initially hated this week's slate during the Tuesday night podcast, but it grew on me as I wrote up the picks this morning.

I especially like the Jaguars, Raiders, Cowboys, Eagles, Seahawks and Patriots. The Jets-Texans, Bengals-Cardinals and Packers-Vikings were coin flips.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Titans +3 at Jaguars

The Jaguars have been better than the Titans this year, and they're at home, so I don't see a good reason not to lay the usual three. Back Jacksonville.

Jaguars 24 - 19

EARLY GAMES

Redskins +7 at Panthers

I keep fading the Panthers, and I keep losing, but why stop now? The Redskins are a tough, scrappy team, and Carolina doesn't typically blow opponents out. Take the points.

Panthers 24 - 23

Raiders -2 at Lions

I struggled with this one a bit, but I have to fade Jim Caldwell who did his best to gift last week's game back to the Packers. Back Oakland.

Raiders 26 - 20

Cowboys pick 'em at Dolphins

Maybe Tony Romo will be rusty, but the full strength Cowboys are much better than the Dolphins, and Miami's home field isn't typically a huge advantage. Take Dallas.

Cowboys 27 - 23

Colts +6 at Falcons

I can't in good conscience take the Falcons as six-point favorites against anyone after they lost to the Niners and Bucs and barely beat the Titans. Even the Matt Hasselbeck Colts. Moreover, I'd expect Vontae Davis to guard Julio Jones, and the Falcons can't stretch the field with anyone else. Back Indy.

Falcons 21 - 20

Rams +2 at Ravens

I back the Ravens every week, and I lose every week, but why stop now? I think Baltimore's defense has woken up after the bye, and they'll cause Case Keenum some problems in Baltimore.

Ravens 24 - 19

Jets -2.5 at Texans

This game gave me the most trouble. I used to think the Jets were pretty good, and last week they lost more because of the four turnovers than from being outplayed by the Bills. Still, the Texans defense has tightened up the last few weeks, and they're getting points at home. And of course we don't know whether Brian Hoyer will play, and it's a big downgrade to T.J. Yates. I suppose just on the chance Yates starts, I have to take the Jets.

Jets 20 - 13

Buccaneers +5.5 at Eagles

I don't think Mark Sanchez is a significant downgrade from Sam Bradford, and the Eagles defense is far better than Tampa's. Lay the points.

Eagles 30 - 17

Broncos +1 at Bears

While Vegas is all but ignoring the Packers recent slide, it's certainly taking Denver's seriously. A few weeks ago the notion the Broncos would be underdogs at Chicago would have been far-fetched indeed. But here we are with Jay Cutler playing at a Pro Bowl level and the Bears defense not being the doormat we thought it might. The wild card here is Brock Osweiler who could be good or horrible, and there's no real way to tell. I suppose I'll lay the point as the Broncos can't run the ball, so it'll all be on Osweiler in his first career start.

Bears 23 - 17

LATE GAMES

Chiefs -3 at Chargers

Are the Chiefs three points better than the Chargers on a neutral field? Because that's what a game in San Diego essentially is these days. I think the answer is yes, and I'd predict a push here, but I have to choose a side. Back Kansas City.

Chiefs 28 - 21

Packers +1 at Vikings

It's strange how much respect the Packers get from the oddsmakers. They were favored on the road against undefeated Denver and got blown out. Nonetheless, they were favored again on the road against undefeated Carolina and got blown out before making a rally that fell short. Since then, they lost outright at home to the Lions and yet they're still only a one-point dog on the road against the 7-2 Vikings. Maybe the Packers get it together this week, but I have to fade them until they do. Back Minnesota.

Vikings 19 - 16

49ers +12.5 at Seahawks

While the Seahawks have taken a step back this year, they throttled the Niners in San Francisco a few weeks ago, and coming off a bad loss and facing Blaine Gabbert, I think they'll do so again at home. Lay the wood.

Seahawks 30 - 6

SUNDAY NIGHT

Bengals +5 at Cardinals

The Cardinals looked great last week, but the Seahawks aren't the team they were the last couple years, and the Bengals before Monday night were one of the best teams in the league. The Cardinals should be favored at home, but not by this margin. Back Cincy.

Cardinals 23 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Bills +7 at Patriots

I'm a little insulted by this line. The Giants were getting seven at home last week, but the Bills are getting only seven in New England? Didn't the Giants beat the Bills in Buffalo last month? I realize the Patriots have offensive line problems and they lost Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, but they're at home, and this is an awfully big reaction to last week's games. Back New England.

Patriots 31 - 20

I went 7-7 in Week 10 to bring my record to 61-80-5 on the year. I'm 5-6-2 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.

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