This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 2-2 last week, but feel pretty good about it because the games for which I had a strong feel (CAR-AZ and BAL-PIT) came through, and the ones that were coin flips did not. This week, I think the lines are pretty tight, with the week off and home venues strongly helping the favorites, but the discrepancy in team strength otherwise not entirely commensurate with the size of the spreads.
Put differently, these lines would ordinarily be too big given the relative strength of the teams, but all four home teams are especially tough in their respective stadiums - in fact, collectively they were 30-2 at home this year, with the two losses being New England's Week 17 rest-the-starters contest against the Bills and Seattle's loss to Dallas in Week 6. When the only real loss is by the NFL's defending champs who have long been especially tough at home, it's likely the venues - unlike say Dallas or Miami - are worth more than the standard 2.5-3.0 points.
The extra week of rest and preparation are also worth something, so while these lines look slightly inflated to me, I'm not quite as bullish on the underdogs as I might be in an ordinary week.
No best bets yet, though I'm tempted to make the Ravens one and might add it in the comments if the line doesn't move.
SATURDAY GAMES
Ravens +7 at Patriots
What a bad draw for the NFL's best regular season team. The Ravens have
I went 2-2 last week, but feel pretty good about it because the games for which I had a strong feel (CAR-AZ and BAL-PIT) came through, and the ones that were coin flips did not. This week, I think the lines are pretty tight, with the week off and home venues strongly helping the favorites, but the discrepancy in team strength otherwise not entirely commensurate with the size of the spreads.
Put differently, these lines would ordinarily be too big given the relative strength of the teams, but all four home teams are especially tough in their respective stadiums - in fact, collectively they were 30-2 at home this year, with the two losses being New England's Week 17 rest-the-starters contest against the Bills and Seattle's loss to Dallas in Week 6. When the only real loss is by the NFL's defending champs who have long been especially tough at home, it's likely the venues - unlike say Dallas or Miami - are worth more than the standard 2.5-3.0 points.
The extra week of rest and preparation are also worth something, so while these lines look slightly inflated to me, I'm not quite as bullish on the underdogs as I might be in an ordinary week.
No best bets yet, though I'm tempted to make the Ravens one and might add it in the comments if the line doesn't move.
SATURDAY GAMES
Ravens +7 at Patriots
What a bad draw for the NFL's best regular season team. The Ravens have knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs twice in the last five seasons on their home field, and the one Patriots playoff win over the Ravens was only due to a Lee Evans drop in the end zone in 2012. While the teams have changed substantially since those matchups, key players on both sides (Joe Flacco, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Tom Brady) as well as both head coaches are still around. For that reason, the Patriots mystique (especially at home) is likely to be a non-factor.
The Patriots also excel at taking away a team's top weapon, especially now that Darrelle Revis is in the fold, but the Ravens offense, while modest, is fairly diversified between two wideouts, a running back and a tight end. And while the Ravens biggest weakness is in the secondary, the Patriots lack the game-breaking outside weapon to exploit it.
All that said, this is a better Patriots team than the ones the Ravens took down the last few years - Revis can take away one of Baltimore wideouts, and the Patriots can offer help on the other side, making it difficult for Flacco to attack down the field. And the great Rob Gronkowski is healthier than he's been in two seasons.
In the end, because I could see Baltimore winning this outright more easily than I can a New England blowout (though a bad game by Flacco, and that could happen too), I'm taking the points. Back the Ravens.
Patriots 27 - 24
Panthers +11 at Seahawks
The Panthers defense and running game looked great last week, but against the Ryan Lindley-led offense, you have to grade on a steep curve. The more disturbing issue was Cam Newton's inaccuracy and Ron Rivera's refusal to stick with the run in a game where it made no sense to take unnecessary risk. While the opposite is likely to be the case in Seattle this week, the Panthers didn't look like an organization that had its act together despite highly favorable circumstances and were actually trailing, despite dominating, at the end of the first half.
The Seahawks came on strong down the stretch, but they didn't dominate the Rams in an important Week 17 game, pulling away on a pick-six and Rams fumble at the half-yard line. While the defense has been other-worldly down the stretch, the offense lacks viable threats in the passing game and relies heavily on Russell Wilson's escapability and misdirection, along with Marshawn Lynch's power running.
My feeling is Carolina's defense - which has been far better against the run of late - is a tough matchup for Seattle, though the loss of defensive tackle Star Lotulelei this week could mitigate that somewhat.
The key to this game will be Newton, however. If he plays the way he did against the Cardinals, the Seahawks should win big. Newton looked like he was in pain for much of that game, and at times seemed to be throwing off his back foot. Assuming Newton's healthy and able to step into his throws, I'd expect the Panthers to hang around - at least enough to beat a double-digit spread. But I can't shake the feeling something bad will happen, and the wheels will come off late. Back Seattle. (Full disclosure: I had the Panthers initially and switched it 15 minutes after publishing)
Seahawks 31 - 13
SUNDAY GAMES
Cowboys +6 at Packers
The Cowboys overcame a 14-point deficit to escape with the win last week, in part due to the aid of a rare and controversial pass interference retraction by the referees and in part due to a big performance by Tony Romo against a stout Detroit defense.
The Packers are actually a better matchup for Dallas in some ways. Green Bay is generous against the run (20th in YPC), and DeMarco Murray should have considerably more room this week. Romo, in turn, should be in better down and distances, though the Packers pass defense is above average, and finished the year with only one fewer sack than Detroit.
The problem for the Cowboys, of course, is a below average pass defense, an anemic pass rush and an opposing quarterback who posted the greatest home field numbers in NFL history. Rodgers' team went 8-0 at Lambeau Field while he had 25 TDs, zero interceptions and 9.73 YPA. Unless the weather in Green Bay is not only cold but especially windy, it's hard to imagine Rodgers won't carve up a below average opponent.
One question then is to what extent can Murray and the Dallas offense also be its defense by keeping its weaker unit rested and off the field and shortening the game so one fumble here or an unlikely three-and-out there by the Packers can swing the game. The other is Rodgers' health - while there's little doubt he'll suit up, he aggravated a calf injury Week 17 against the Lions and did not practice on Wednesday. If he's even slightly less mobile, that would be a big lift to the Cowboys chances.
Bottom line, I think six points is probably about the right number here, but I'll take the Cowboys, especially after Jason Garrett showed some courage for once in his life, going for it on 4th-and-6 against the Lions last week. Back Dallas.
Packers 34 - 30
Colts +7 at Broncos
The Colts crushing the Bengals was a little bit like the Panthers crushing the Cardinals - it's easy to beat up on a team with no passing game (in the Cardinals case, they had no running game, either.) But Andrew Luck played a great game, netting 8.5 YPA despite several drops from receivers and delivering the ball with touch and accuracy even in the face of the blitz.
Going to Denver will be a tall order, however, given the Broncos two tough corners and stout run defense. While the Colts are not a good running team, they do have a diverse offense with Donte Moncrief, both tight ends and even Hakeem Nicks making an appearance last week. While T.Y. Hilton is the game breaker, I'd imagine Luck will have to spread it around to find success against Denver's No. 1 YPA pass defense (Seattle was actually second.)
On the Denver side, Peyton Manning's role has shrunk in recent weeks, with Denver preferring to run the ball. The Colts are 23rd in YPC allowed, and if you take the points here, you hope the Broncos try to exploit that rather than unleashing their full arsenal against Indy's league-average pass defense.
So the key for this game is whether John Fox (and Peyton Manning) play it close to the vest, taking what the Colts defense gives them rather than no-huddling, throwing on early downs and aggressively running up the score. In the former case, I think the Broncos not only won't cover, they might lose the game. In the latter, it's easy to envision a Denver blowout. This is more or less a coin flip, but I'll side with Andrew Luck rising to the occasion over John Fox coming up with the right game plan. Back the Colts.
Broncos 31 - 27
I went 2-2 last week in the Wild Card games. I was 135-116-5 on the season. Best bets are 18-12-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.
