This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week went better than I thought it would - the picks were 4-0, and the biggest thing I got wrong was not being bold enough to pick Indy outright. Even SEA-CAR played out more or less as I expected - CAR the right side the whole way, but the pick-six at the end sealed the cover for SEA. My implied over/unders - for which I wouldn't recommend using these scores as a serious guide, as I just write them down on feel and don't put much thought into them - were 2-2, but if the Dez Bryant TD counts, that game goes over. And I probably should have made BAL-NE an official best bet, but I didn't.
This week, both games came to me pretty easily, though I'm stronger on the AFC than the NFC.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Packers +7.5 at Seahawks
If Aaron Rodgers weren't playing on a bad calf, I would make this a best bet. I don't care what happened in the first game, and I'm not going to discount Green Bay based on their pronounced home/road splits more than an additional point or two. The Seahawks defense is great, but their second-half run has been largely against weak offenses, and the Panthers were able to move the ball fairly consistently last week as Cam Newton had plenty of time to throw. Rodgers' injury is the only thing that gives me pause, though he did look more nimble in the second half and claimed Tuesday his
Last week went better than I thought it would - the picks were 4-0, and the biggest thing I got wrong was not being bold enough to pick Indy outright. Even SEA-CAR played out more or less as I expected - CAR the right side the whole way, but the pick-six at the end sealed the cover for SEA. My implied over/unders - for which I wouldn't recommend using these scores as a serious guide, as I just write them down on feel and don't put much thought into them - were 2-2, but if the Dez Bryant TD counts, that game goes over. And I probably should have made BAL-NE an official best bet, but I didn't.
This week, both games came to me pretty easily, though I'm stronger on the AFC than the NFC.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Packers +7.5 at Seahawks
If Aaron Rodgers weren't playing on a bad calf, I would make this a best bet. I don't care what happened in the first game, and I'm not going to discount Green Bay based on their pronounced home/road splits more than an additional point or two. The Seahawks defense is great, but their second-half run has been largely against weak offenses, and the Panthers were able to move the ball fairly consistently last week as Cam Newton had plenty of time to throw. Rodgers' injury is the only thing that gives me pause, though he did look more nimble in the second half and claimed Tuesday his calf felt better than it did at the same point last week.
Russell Wilson played a great game against the Panthers, and I'd expect Marshawn Lynch to beat up on the Packers run defense more than he did the Panthers. But the Packers pass defense should hold up well against Seattle's receivers, and I expect this to be a close game, barring a closing-minutes disaster. With Rodgers, unlike Newton, I don't see that happening. Back the Packers.
Seahawks 27 - 24
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Colts +6.5 at Patriots
Andrew Luck is at the top of his game right now, and the Colts did a nice job protecting him in Denver against a tough defense. But Peyton Manning was so off, I have a hard time buying into the Colts average defense. Because the Patriots brutalized them on the ground in their last two matchups, I imagine Indy will devote more resources to stopping the run, and Tom Brady, unlike Manning, will make it pay if his targets get matched up one-on-one down the field.
The New England defense is worse than Denver's, but I'd expect their game plan to be quite a bit better, and conditions could be worse - there's a rainstorm forecast for Sunday in the Boston area.
The Colts have been a good team all year, but they failed to match up against the league's best aside from Denver - who got a no-show from its quarterback - and Cincinnati who they faced twice without A.J. Green. I see them as a long shot to challenge the best regular-season team in the NFL in its building this week. And while the Patriots struggled against the Ravens last week, that was their nightmare matchup - a physical, bullying team with an experienced coach and quarterback, a stout defense and a history of success at Foxborough. Now that they've survived it, I expect them to win the Super Bowl. Back the Pats.
Patriots 31 - 20
I went 4-0 last week in the divisional games to go 6-2 in the playoffs. I was 135-116-5 on the season. Best bets are 18-12-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.
