ADP Battles: Kelce vs. Ekeler vs. Hill

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Published on June 21, 2023

Most experienced fantasy managers go into their drafts with some type of cheat sheet. But let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because typically, fantasy players have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.

In the last article, we looked at consensus top-three picks. This week, we'll look at options that often go between picks four and six. Travis Kelce, Austin Ekeler and Tyreek Hill are all excellent players who deliver elite production, but for fantasy managers, deciding between them comes down to which position they'd prefer to address.

Travis Kelce

Aside from the career year that Mark Andrews had in 2021, Kelce has given fantasy managers a big edge on the field at tight end over the years. Of course, getting that production comes at a price, and that cost is typically a mid-first round pick. Even though Kadarius Toney flashed signs of being an elite playmaker, he hasn't been reliable. In any case, Kelce is the clear No. 1 option for Patrick Mahomes in arguably the league's top offense.

Upside

At 32 years old last year, Kelce posted 1,338 yards and 12 TDs. Even though he had 1,125 yards in 2021, he's shown no signs of slowing down.
In 2022, he had career highs in catches and TDs while recording the second-most yards of his career.
He's been targeted between 134-152 times in each of the last five years.
His reception totals in those five years have been between 92-110.
In addition, he's scored at least nine TDs in four of the last five seasons.
In each of the last seven seasons, Kelce gained at least 1,038 yards.

Downside

At some point, age may begin to impact him. Who knows if that'll happen anytime soon? For those who actively try to avoid age decline, you'll be right one of these years if you start to fade him.
Seriously, there is no tangible downside I can find that's performance related.

The Bottom Line

Kelce appears to be the only tight end on the board who has the ability to create significant distance between others at the position. Mark Andrews suddenly has up to three receivers who could cut into his target share. George Kittle has too many down weeks. T.J. Hockenson lacks elite upside. Fantasy managers comfortable with passing on RBs and WRs in the first round have access to one of the safest elite players on the board.

Austin Ekeler

Over the past two years, Ekeler has averaged 19 TDs, 1,598 scrimmage yards and 53.5 receptions. During that time, he failed to reach 11 PPR points in a game just once (9.5). After the Chargers allowed him to seek out a trade this offseason, nothing materialized. Then in May, the team added $1.75 million in incentives to his contract. He should continue to be ultra-productive as the leader of the backfield.

Upside

The Chargers dealt with injuries along their offensive line last year, but they appear to be getting everyone back. Even if the line is merely average, it'll be an upgrade.
Although he's had increased usage in each of the last two years, he hasn't had more than 311 touches in a season, so overuse may not be an issue.
Ekeler has averaged 110 targets over the last two years.
He's been consistent as a runner, averaging between 4.4-4.6 yards per carry the last three years.
With new OC Kellen Moore, the offense could be more explosive and generate high play volume, which helps Ekeler and all the Chargers' skill players.

Downside

Ekeler has asked for help to ease his workload in the past. Although the Chargers have yet to commit to doing so, there are free agents the team could pursue to take away touches. If a reliable early-down RB is added, he could lose a significant number of carries.
Will the new offensive system place the emphasis on Justin Herbert throwing downfield, instead of throwing short passes to Ekeler and Keenan Allen? If that happens, Ekeler could see a decrease in targets, which would hurt his fantasy value.

The Bottom Line

The downside for Ekeler is all narrative based. There is no strong evidence that either of the downside scenarios will occur. Although it may be difficult to keep up an incredible TD rate that very few players in NFL history have maintained, his value as a receiver should protect him from bust potential. If the TDs drop into single digits though, he may lack the volume to be a top-five RB.

Tyreek Hill

After playing with Patrick Mahomes for six seasons, many expected some regression after Hill's move to Miami. It didn't happen. Hill set career highs in targets, receptions and yardage. He also scored eight TDs, which is in line with most seasons in his career. Going into his second year with the Dolphins, we can reasonably assume that he'll continue to see extreme usage.

Upside

Aside from 2019, when he missed four games, Hill has at least 1,239 yards in each season since 2018.
Despite playing for two different teams, he's averaged 106 receptions over the last three years.
Hill has scored at least seven TDs in each of his seven seasons.
Last year, he set career highs with seven 100-yard games and four 150-yard games.

Downside

When Tua Tagovailoa missed the last two games of the season, Hill caught just six passes for 78 yards on 12 targets. If Tagovailoa misses time again, it's possible Hill sees a drop in production.
The Dolphins added Jalen Ramsey to a defense that already had an excellent pass rush. If the unit becomes elite, it's possible the teams plays to protect leads by running the ball more. That could lead to lower passing volume and targets.

The Bottom Line

Even if Hill can't replicate the 1,710 yards he posted last year, he's been a lock for at least 1,200 in most of his years in the league. With his ability to get into the end zone at any time, it's unlikely he scores fewer than the seven times he did last year. However, the one significant concern is if Tagovailoa suffers another head injury, and I have more concern about his ability to stay on the field than I do for a player coming back from different types of injuries. Should he be sidelined again, Mike White is the likely replacement. I'm not moving Hill outside of my top-four WRs, but those worried about the offense if White is at QB may choose to pass on Miami's No. 1 wideout.

The Final Word

Kelce is the safest of the three and likely provides a big edge over the field at TE. However, fantasy managers who have concerns about missing out on an early RB or WR may consider fading Kelce for that reason. It's difficult to responsibly project Ekeler to keep finding the end zone at an otherworldly rate. Also, if the Chargers wisely put the offense in the hands of Justin Herbert, Ekeler could see a reduction in targets. He's clearly worth a first-round pick, but he is the player in this trio with the most probable path to slight regression. Betting on Hill with a first-round pick may be a bet on Tagovailoa staying healthy. I'm not sure he'll reach his ceiling if Mike White takes over. If Tagovailoa plays the entire season, Hill could compete for WR1, if not the overall No. 1. Because I'm personally not a drafter that's comfortable taking a first-round TE, my personal draft board is ordered Hill, Ekeler and Kelce. Obviously though, it's tough to go wrong with any of these players.