This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most experienced fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. We'll compare players at the same position because that's what fantasy managers typically do when they're targeting a specific pick.
Fantasy GMs looking for a strong WR after the consensus top ones are off the board might feel the need to get a strong option before the pool of obvious candidates dries up, so in this ADP battle, we'll look at A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin and CeeDee Lamb, who typically go between picks 23 and 28 in drafts.
A.J. Brown
Upside: Despite playing with injuries to both knees that required offseason surgery, A.J. Brown surpassed 1,000 yards with 11 TDs on just 106 targets last season. Entering this season healthy, he could absolutely explode in his third year. Not only has he shown the ability to get open against any coverage thrown at him, the 6-foot-1, 226, receiver is absolutely lethal when running after the catch, both because of his slightly above average speed and because of his ability to destroy tacklers with his physicality. Between having Derrick Henry to keep defenses from putting too many DBs in the game while having Julio Jones to take on significant coverage, if Brown sees 150 targets, he could put together some astronomical numbers.
Downside: Given the ability he's shown in his early career, target share is one of the only issues that could keep him from performing at an elite level. If the Titans run the ball at will, it could keep Ryan Tannehill's pass attempts low, and if Julio Jones stays healthy and can command an almost equal target share to Brown, lack of targets could keep him closer to the numbers he's posted in his first two seasons.
Terry McLaurin
Upside: Despite weak QB play during the first two years of his career, Terry McLaurin has averaged 1,000 yards, 5.5 TDs and 14.5 games played. With Ryan Fitzpatrick now under center, McLaurin, who has blazing speed and well above average explosiveness, likely will be peppered with targets from a QB who has always been able to get the most out of his top receiver. Given he saw 134 targets in 15 games last year, it's that number could increase along with the quality of the targets, making it possible the receiver moves into the elite group with a potential top-5 finish at his position.
Downside: If the Washington Football Team plays defense at an elite level, anchored by their amazing pass rush along with a solid secondary that added William Jackson in the offseason, it's possible that the team is in control of most games. As a result, it might turn to Antonio Gibson and the rushing attack while not needing to be pass heavy on offense. Also, if the attempts are lowered overall and also shared with Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas, McLaurin might not see enough targets to make him a top-12 WR.
CeeDee Lamb
Upside: Coming off a 935-yard and five-touchdown season with Dak Prescott missing most of the year, the sky seems to be the limit for the second-year receiver. Actually, in the five games he played with Prescott, he averaged six receptions for 87 yards, which already was bordering on elite production. With Prescott seemingly a full go for Week 1 and Dallas likely possessing a defense that will ensure many shootouts, Lamb could see double-digit targets in quite a few games. He could also benefit from a healthy Amari Cooper, who could draw some of the toughest attention away from Lamb.
Downside: A healthier offensive line this season could make for a more balanced offense, and, as a result, Prescott ends up throwing roughly 35 pass attempts per game opposed to the 40-45 that fantasy managers are hoping. In addition, the presence of Cooper and Michael Gallup in an offense that doesn't feature an extremely high pass rate may cause targets to be split, and instead of seeing 140 or more targets, Lamb ends up with 120 or so, keeping him from earning his value as a top-12 WR.
The Bottom Line
A.J. Brown could be the top fantasy receiver this year if he sees at least 150 targets, giving him ridiculous upside, but even if the offense stays run heavy, he could have a fantastic floor, making him the best blend of floor and ceiling.
McLaurin is in the best situation of his career with Fitzpatrick, but his upside might not be as high as Brown's. Meanwhile, with the possibility that Washington's defense can keep games lower scoring, McLaurin's floor may be the lowest among this trio of receivers.
Lamb could become a superstar this year, but because we've seen what each of the other WRs in this trio are capable of, it's unclear as to whether Lamb has more upside. That said, his floor should be excellent, as it's hard to imagine Dallas not being near the league lead in pass attempts.
