This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Last week, ADP Analysis focused on three big pieces of news, assessing the impact of recent(ish) developments concerning Michael Thomas, Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz. This week, we'll check out some of the other significant ADP movements this month, comparing results from the first 12 days of August with those from July.
All ADP data comes from 12-team leagues on BB10s.
Rising
QB Trey Lance
July ADP: QB21, 151.9
Aug. ADP: QB18, 141.0
Within the QB ranks, Lance leapfrogged Carson Wentz (foot), Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields, though the latter also moved up a bit, from QB20 to QB19. In Fields' case, he's mostly just benefitting from the Wentz injury — moving up a spot by default — whereas Lance's larger rise has more weight behind it.
The No. 3 overall pick will work with San Francisco's backups in his NFL debut this weekend, but reports out of camp suggest he's looked good, particularly for a 21-year-old rookie from a small school. Of course, his age and background are the same as they were last month, and we already knew Jimmy Garopppolo was nothing more than a short-term obstacle.
In other words, not much has actually changed, but the new ADP is probably where Lance should've been going all along, even if he'll likely be limited to a few designed plays at the beginning of the season. The argument for Lance always centered around his rushing ability and Garoppolo's shaky track record, rather than any expectation of pinpoint passing early on.
Still, reports of Lance looking sharp at camp have made their way around the internet, feeding into hype even after ESPN's Nick Wagoner revealed that Garoppolo has taken all but two of the first-team reps in training camp, with those two plays being designed runs for Lance. The rookie now appears properly valued, though arguably for the wrong reasons (inflated expectations about his timeline for taking the starting job).
RB July ADP: RB34, 90.3
Aug. ADP: RB32, 83.0
We usually think of rookies as low floor, high ceiling. Carter, however, is more likely to land in the middle, quickly securing a role in what figures to be a lousy offense. Reports out of camp have him and Tevin Coleman getting most of the first-team work, though the rookie is listed as a fourth-stringer on New York's initial preseason depth chart.
Carter's recent ADP movement largely seems based on training-camp buzz, with a lot of that coming from Connor Hughes of The Athletic. Other Jets beat writers also have been optimistic about Carter, but the hype notes on RotoWire and other fantasy sites mostly come from Hughes. To be fair, he's backing it up with details on usage, not just saying "wow, this guy looks good." So at least it's the good kind of camp buzz, relatively speaking.
RB July ADP: RB53, 168.9
Aug. ADP: RB50, 154.4
The Seahawks don't have much else behind Chris Carson, yet fantasy drafters became extra skeptical of Penny following a mid-June report that revealed he had a clean-up procedure on his surgically repaired knee (Dec. 2019 ACL tear) earlier this offseason. Penny's ADP then rose after he was cleared for the start of camp, but he's already missing more time, sidelined since last weekend with a thigh injury.
At this point, he might even need to fend off competition for the No. 2 spot in Seattle's backfield, with DeeJay Dallas and Alex Collins being the other candidates. Mediocre competition, admittedly, but Seattle also could be one of those teams where the eventual backup RB isn't even on the current roster. Pass.
Falling
RB Tarik Cohen
July ADP: RB54, 171.7
Aug. ADP: RB57, 187.6
Cohen (knee) remains on the PUP list, while David Montgomery and Damien Williams have been healthy throughout camp. It's understandable that drafters are moving away from Cohen and toward Williams, but the second part at least seems like a mistake. Remember that Williams is only a name because he played in the Reid/Mahomes system.
In addition to being a Super Bowl champ and former third-round fantasy pick, Williams is a 29-year-old RB with 1,231 career rushing yards who didn't play pro football last year. Worry about Cohen's knee, or worry about Montgomery taking more snaps on passing downs. Just stop worrying about Damien Williams!
WR July ADP: WR27, 57.7
Aug. ADP: WR28, 62.9
Golladay's continued absence from practice seems to be impacting ADP, though his hamstring is expected to heal by the end of the month. I wonder if people were just looking for any excuse to push Golladay down, as he's playing with QB Daniel Jones in an offense where there's plenty of target competition. We can't project 10 YPT while playing with Jones, and we can't expect more than 6-8 targets per game unless the Giants' other key pass catchers miss a bunch of time. Smells like 60 catches for 900 yards and five or six TDs.
WR July ADP: WR32, 71.3
Aug. ADP: WR34, 75.6
Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy is up to WR32, ADP 72.4 for August. Last month, he was WR36, ADP 76.7. Recent reports suggest Jeudy is "dominating" at training camp, including joint practice sessions with the Vikings. Of course, Jeudy still has poor QB play and Sutton to contend with.
That's the same Sutton who produced 1,112 yards at a clip of 9.0 YPT in 2019, despite catching his passes from Drew Lock, Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen. It's possible drafters are getting a bit antsy for Sutton to be cleared for full practice participation, but this mostly looks like a case of people slightly shifting their target projections based on Jeudy buzz. By all accounts, Sutton has looked good while working his way back from the ACL tear from last September.
Other ADP Notes
- The ADP gap between QB3 (Kyler Murray, 57.7) and QB8 (Justin Herbert, 76.3) is about 20 spots, the same as the gap between Herbert and QB9 (Tom Brady, 94.5). It's then a tight race between Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts for that last spot, with the latter slipping from QB9 in July to QB11 in August.
- Ben Roethlisberger is QB21 (156.2) in August, up from QB24 (162.1) in July. He's jumped Wentz, Daniel Jones and Ryan Fitzpatrick in the QB rankings, though we'll note that BB10s is a best-ball site, i.e., QB job security is a big factor, i.e., Roethlisberger is worth more than he would be in a format with in-season transactions.
- Deshaun Watson... QB26 in July, QB26 so far in August.
- We mentioned this last week, but it remains worth noting: Jonathan Taylor went from ADP 6.4 in July to 9.9 in August, while Saquon Barkley dropped from 7.0 to 10.1. They're still RB6 and RB7, but Aaron Jones (10.2), Austin Ekeler (10.8) and Nick Chubb (11.2) are within striking distance. I drafted Barkley at the 1-2 turn (in a 12-teamer) twice this week.
- Apart from Barkley and Taylor sinking, there haven't been any big changes in the Top 25 at RB since the Cam Akers news in mid-July.
- Rams RB Xavier Jones is RB58 in August. He's going at ADP 194.1 for the month, with an upward trend over the past week or so.
- Darrell Henderson is RB22, ADP 51.8. Even if you don't trust him, which you shouldn't, it's perfectly reasonable to gamble on his RB1 ceiling when the cost is a fifth/sixth-round pick.
- Chargers RB Justin Jackson is RB70 in August, up from RB81 in July. He can still be had in the final round or two of most drafts, and remains a solid pick anywhere after the Top 175 or so.
- Eagles WR DeVonta Smith has dropped from WR39 in July to WR41 in August. He's out with an MCL sprain but should be back soon, and it sounds like the other Philadelphia wideouts have been less than impressive on the practice field.
- Dolphins WR Will Fuller has dropped from only WR37 to WR38, but his ADP is down from 83.1 to 88.9, so it's clear the missed practice time with a foot injury is having some impact. It isn't said to be serious, but even if he returns to practice soon, Fuller will miss Week 1 to serve the final game of last year's six-game suspension. Just draft Jaylen Waddle two rounds later.
- Colts WR Michael Pittman has dropped from WR46 in July to WR49 in August. For T.Y. Hilton, it's WR 54 to WR59. For Parris Campbell, WR68 to WR75. The discounts are appealing, especially with Pittman, who is more of a possession receiver. An expectation of poor QB play is already baked into the price, and while Jacob Eason/Sam Ehlinger may not have the same upside as Carson Wentz, it looks like the Colts' new starting QB may not be out too long anyway.
