2026 NFL Draft: Fantasy Winners & Losers Day 1

Joe Bartel recaps the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft with analysis on how fantasy managers should value Fernando Mendoza, Jeremiyah Love and more.
2026 NFL Draft: Fantasy Winners & Losers Day 1

It's going to be a prevailing theme this year, but I suspect the 2026 NFL Draft will test the limits of how important draft capital really is when it comes to long-term fantasy value. Over the next two days I'll touch on every skill-position player drafted and the fantasy ramifications for each one. Welcome to the recap of the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft! 

Be sure to check out the RotoWire 2026 fantasy football draft kit to get cheat sheets, rankings, auction values and more. You can run mock drafts with our mock draft simulator and check out the latest ADP rankings.

Quarterback

Fernando Mendoza 1st overall, Las Vegas Raiders

For a second consecutive year, there was exactly zero drama tied to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Unlike Cam Ward last year, there's been a bit more national conversation regarding Mendoza the prospect, and I've largely come to the same conclusion as the general consensus. It's not fair to classify the true junior as a quarterback prospect tier in the same vein as Trevor Lawrence or Caleb Williams, but that's mainly because Indiana never asked him to elevate to that level. 

That should be a good thing. To be in an infrastructure that builds up the player, capitalizes on his talents and minimizes the perceived weaknesses is what we should all adhere to in a workspace, football or otherwise. And to be clear, there is a lot to be excited about when it comes to Mendoza's gifts.

It's hard to not to watch the 22-year-old's tape even as a sophomore at California and be drawn to a handful of excellent back-shoulder throws, or how it feels like he can place the ball in a receiver's hands perfectly in the red zone. I don't think Mendoza is especially creative in the pocket, which frankly some experts might consider a positive, but he clearly has some degree of athleticism on runs even if his gait seems abnormal.

So long as the Klint Kubiak offense can continue to present quick reads for Mendoza, something the scheme has been known for dating back to his time as the offensive coordinator for the Vikings, I fully anticipate the Indiana product to be comfortably in the QB2 range from a redraft/bestball perspective by midseason. I'd be a bit surprised given Las Vegas' deprived skill-position group if we'll view Mendoza more positively than that come 2027, but that shouldn't hinder the overall perception of the most recent Heisman Trophy winner.

Ty Simpson, 13th overall, Los Angeles Rams

Simpson was subject to immense conversation leading into the 2026 NFL Draft as the presumptive second quarterback off the board, but there's going to be far more questions regarding the Alabama product after Thursday. 

Let's set aside for a moment what kind of talent Simpson will be. That the Rams chose to take the heir apparent to Matthew Stafford at No. 13 while they're square in the sights of a Super Bowl window is a bold choice. The Packers tried to thread that needle to no avail with Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love, and most recently the Falcons tried to use the same dumb language you'll hear pundits make now with the signing of Kirk Cousins and then subsequent selection of Michael Penix. Now look where Atlanta is now. 

On top of that, there's just not many successful instances of a one-year collegiate starter developing into a NFL star quarterback and that doesn't take into account the precipitous falloff Simpson had in the waning stages of Alabama's season. That was reportedly due to an undisclosed injury, but when there's so little tape to work with that the limitations just become more pronounced. Simpson really does a great job throwing off platform, which has become a trendy sort of trait attributed to certain quarterbacks, but he's not mobile enough to threaten defenses at the NFL level when he gets out of the pocket. There's few NFL coaches I trust more than Sean McVay, so I'm prepared to look very foolish, but Simpson will need to develop significantly more before I think he's the bastion of a new-era Rams offense, whenever that begins.

Running Back

Jeremiyah Love, 3rd overall, Arizona Cardinals

Love was largely billed by draft pundits as the best player in the 2026 NFL Draft. You can quibble about what that means for the draft class as a whole if a running back, a position largely degraded by the orators of the NFL over the past half decade, is considered the top prize, but I'm more concerned with how that consideration has warped the perceived value of Love.

Before taking a NFL snap, the junior is already considered one of the top dynasty running backs available, and he's firmly cemented as a top-24 pick in most bestballs I've participated in thus far. Love is a tremendous player, but didn't we see this exact scenario play out last year with Ashton Jeanty?

Arizona's offense is brimming with talent, so in a way there's naturally going to be a soft landing spot even if Love is unable to live up to his lofty pre-draft pedigree. If I'm going to call back to Jeanty, it's fair to note the Raider finished 11th in PPR scoring despite everything going against him last year. I just don't have a lot of faith in a Mike LaFleur/QB carousel headlined by Jacoby Brissett to elevate the Notre Dame product to a premiere level, which seemed like a foregone conclusion by many entering this process. The 21-year-old will need to make his fantasy bones as a pass catcher in 2026, especially with Tyler Allgeier and James Conner still in tow. Those are hardly overwhelming obstacles, but their presence by default will cap the type of upside you'd want out of the seventh-highest priced RB in the NFL before he takes a snap.

Jadarian Price, 32nd overall, Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks had just four picks entering Thursday, so a trade back seemed like it would be a priority. The Super Bowl champions evidently decided filling the gaping hole at running back due to the departure of Kenneth Walker and January torn ACL of Zach Charbonnet was of greater importance. I don't disagree with that sentiment at all, I just struggle with Price as the solution.

This was an unorthodox draft as stated earlier in the Love conversation and Seattle has so few needs that I understand the appeal of someone like Price, who averaged six yards per carry in each of the past two seasons (233 total carries) at Notre Dame. That he was the backup to Love, therefore never logging a collegiate start, obviously isn't ideal, but I don't necessarily need to see him be a bellcow to project it.

The issue is that Price showcased almost zero pass-catching ability and I don't think he's capable of absorbing a large enough workload as a runner to offset it. Ironically the newest Kansas City Chief, the aforementioned Walker, is probably the best-case recent example of a RB not showing pass-catching prowess in college only to display some hands at the NFL level, but Walker also ran for 1,638 yards and 18 touchdowns on 263 carries in his final year at Michigan State. Price might get a bunch of platitudes as an explosive kick returner, but with 4.49 speed, he's just not the same type of athlete.

I'm mainly positioning my argument before certain entities that fixate on draft capital start to wage their typical war and prop up Price to be something he's not. First-round draft capital does not matter the same way it did in drafts past and given Seattle's hyper-specific needs this year, it would be wrong to lump the 22-year-old into a similar category as rookie-year Najee Harris or Travis Etienne, even though I know that's what will happen.

Wide Receiver

Carnell Tate, 4th overall, Tennessee Titans

In a lot of ways, Tate feels like the simplest prospect in the entire draft. There will be rightful hand wringing regarding the the 21-year-old's ability to command top attention from NFL team's given Tate benefitted immensely from the gravitation of presumable 2027 WR1 Jeremiah Smith. I think that's somewhat justified, but when I watch Tate, I see a real deep-ball weapon that every WR corps needs in their building. The Ohio State product is a uniquely excellent route runner going vertically, often dekeing secondary players in such a way that they're trailing two or more yards despite initially being in excellent position. I don't think that same separation materializes closer to the line of scrimmage, but that doesn't need to be an area where Tate thrives if it means he's utilized more as a deep outlet.

All of that meshes so well with Cam Ward, a quarterback that desperately wants to push the ball down the field, sometimes to his own detriment. Wan'Dale Robinson can operate in the underneath area and do whatever routes Brian Daboll thinks is important while Tate can capitalize on Ward's true gifts as a passer. In a lot of ways, this feels like a perfect marriage of skillsets.

Tate's draft capital might confuse people into thinking he'll be force fed a bunch of targets right out of the gate, but I think it's better to project the Ohio State product as a Tetairoa McMillan facsimile of sorts to start his career. McMillan won Rookie of the Year of course, but 70-1,014-7 usually isn't winning that award most years. I'll always be a bit gunshy of investing significant redraft resources into rookie wide receivers, but this might be one of those situations where I'll take the plunge before the general consensus steams him up higher.

Jordyn Tyson, 8th overall, New Orleans Saints

Let's get this out of the way first. There absolutely needs to be some buyer beware regarding Tyson's long-documented injury history as a recent hamstring issue forced him to miss three games as a redshirt junior plus almost the entirety of the pre-draft process. That, coupled with a significant knee injury which forced him to miss the remainder of his freshman season at Colorado and the majority of his sophomore season with Arizona State, is something dynasty drafters need to be mindful of.

So long as you can look past that, Tyson's highlight reel is easily one of the more enjoyable experiences of those entire class. The 21-year-old was an absolute workhorse for Arizona State these past two seasons compiling 136 catches, 1,812 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns in 21 games, and at times felt like the only offensive catalyst for the team.

Just looking at the team context, New Orleans would benefit immensely getting Chris Olave closer to his rookie year average depth of target (14.1), if only to protect him as arguably one of the team's pillars of the future. Tyson can win at all levels, but specifically thrives in the short and intermediate. I'm not entirely convinced Tyler Shough is an accurate enough quarterback to take advantage of that, but if you think about Tyson and Olave's strengths, they complement one another so well. It would be obviously surprising if the Arizona State product led the team in targets Year 1, but I do think Tyson will be a major focal point right away provided he's able to stay healthy.

Makai Lemon, 20th overall, Philadelphia Eagles

Helmet scouting is an unfortunate reality in this business, but it's hard not to compare Lemon to USC alum Amon-Ra St. Brown. Both are slot-only targets, at least when they entered the NFL, but I really struggle to see the type of separation you'd expect out of a typecast target like Lemon. The soon-to-be 22-year-old reportedly ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, and all the typical superlatives you see attributed to Lemon are tied to things like "toughness" or "gritty runner after the catch". He does have gloves for hands and his willingness to block will likely buy him more snaps, but there's only so much he can do in that regard at 5-foot-11, 192 pounds.

That the Eagles traded ahead of their Pennsylvania rival Pittsburgh Steelers to draft Lemon is obviously deliciously fun in the petty sort of way, but I'm just concerned that Jalen Hurts can't take advantage of the slot archetype in the way other quarterbacks and other schemes could. It's important to have good wide receivers, no matter the build, and this move seems to solidify an inevitable A.J. Brown trade, but I'm not convinced Lemon will become an immediate target hog the way others seem to be.

KC Concepcion, 24th overall, Cleveland Browns

All the reporting leading into Thursday seemed to suggest Cleveland would come away with an offensive line and wide receiver with their two first-round picks. That they were able to trade down from No. 6 to No. 9 and still accomplish those goals is a win for the front office.

Concepcion is a bit of an enigma given he didn't participate in the testing process at his pro day or the NFL Combine, but he flashed undeniable speed as a punt returner in college and routinely won vertically despite abhorrent quarterback play at times. Those are all pros to his game. Unfortunately there's far too many drops on film to feel especially confident about his ability to be a target hog and an alarming amount of those drops came over the middle of the field where he'd ideally be able to utilize his after-the-catch abilities. That's of course a rather large "con", but that's part of the charm of this draft class.

My larger reservation regarding Concepcion's dynasty value is tied to the rest of Cleveland's offense. I want to believe Todd Monken can evolve a static unit that routinely has been among the league's worst in explosive plays, but that's asking a lot given the personnel on the quarterback depth chart. There's probably worse trios than Harold Fannin, Jerry Jeudy and Concepcion on paper, but I'm nervous the anchor that is the CLE QB room will weigh the group down.

Omar Cooper, New York Jets, 30th overall

New York traded back into the first round to snag Cooper, adding a second target Thursday to a pass-catching room that was truly bleak by the end of the 2025 season, much less by October.

It's going to look like I'm piling on the Jets if you make it to the end of this article, but I just have to call it like I see it. Whereas you'd assume with Jordyn Tyson's prolific collegiate volume, or the way people refer to KC Concepcion as a RAC beneficiary, Cooper truly was used heavily as a RPO/bubble threat with Indiana last year. The 22-year-old is a strong runner after the catch, but he's not evasive nor does he have the type of burst you'd expect for such a typecast role. I also think Cooper struggles to highpoint the ball highlighted by his notable drop against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship before he went down with an injury.

The Jets desperately needed more pass catchers in their building and I don't think it's wrong to have different types of pass catchers as well. There's going to be people who operate like Cooper is guaranteed to be the team's No. 2 target behind Garrett Wilson off draft capital alone and if that's the case I'm just assuming New York will once again be one of the league's worst offenses.

Tight End

Kenyon Sadiq, 16th overall, New York Jets

Sadiq is an absolute freak of an athlete who broke records for tight ends at the NFL Combine and led Oregon in receiving yards last year despite missing a game due to injury. The best-case scenario would be a team weaponizing his incredible athleticism as a potent in-line slot target/blocker. And in today's NFL which is growing increasingly 12-personnel happy, Sadiq could theoretically become a versatile difference maker coupled with 2025 second-round pick Mason Taylor.

Do you think offensive coordinator Frank Reich and the New York Jets can fully materialize that vision though? Or better yet, do you think the likely completely overturned 2027 coaching staff will be able to do it?

Again, the overall idea that New York needed to upgrade its pass catchers is laudable and accurate. Even in what we can politely call is a transition year for the Jets, it's never a bad thing to add talent, although I'd argue it would be nice if it didn't conflict with a top draft pick from the year prior. I'm just tired of watching the OJ Howard's and Kyle Pitts' of the world never achieve the potential their athletic gifts let us dream on. Here's hoping the Jets help buck that trend.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Joe Bartel is RotoWire's Operations Specialist and football contributor among many other things. When not at the office, he's probably playing a variety of Gen 4 console games or rooting on his beloved Green Bay Packers.
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