Twenty notable fantasy players changed teams this offseason, and the moves cut both ways for fantasy managers. Some players walk into dramatically better opportunities, while others trade one crowded room for another.
For each player below, my positional ranking is contrasted below with the latest fantasy football ADP. Where my rank is well ahead of where the field is drafting a player, that is a buy. Where the market likes a player more than I do, that is a sell.
You can check out all of Jim's rankings and content with a premium RotoWire subscription. Use code "JIM" for 15% off.
Quarterback
Kyler Murray, Vikings
Contract: 1 year, $1.3 million, after release from Cardinals ($36.8 million owed)
My Rank: QB9 ADP: QB19 Verdict: BUY
Arizona never fully unlocked Murray's game. Minnesota might. He walks into a receiving corps built around Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, all directed by Kevin O'Connell, a coach with a track record of getting the most out of his quarterback room.
Murray still profiles as the favorite to win the starting job over J.J. McCarthy, and his legs alone give him a rushing floor few passers at his ADP can match.
Murray has admitted O'Connell's offense is uncomfortable at times, and the competition will not be settled until camp wraps. That is a risk for anyone penciling him in as a locked starter in July.
Bottom line: The market has not caught up to the offense he is inheriting. He carries a high weekly ceiling once the quarterback competition shakes out.
Geno Smith, Jets
Trade: From Raiders (with 2026 seventh-round pick) for 2026 sixth-round pick
My Rank: QB28 ADP: QB29 Verdict: HOLD
Smith is already locked in as the starter, which is more than the other quarterbacks in this section can say. He is trading a stagnant Las Vegas offense for a Jets team buzzing about his connection with Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell, and the new coaching staff has praised his preparation all spring.
Bottom line: The market has this about right. A change of scenery quarterback without much rushing equity settles in as a streaming option more than a weekly starter. Smith is a name to know in two-quarterback and deep leagues, not a priority elsewhere.
Tua Tagovailoa, Falcons
Contract: 1 year, $1.215 million, after release from Dolphins ($54 million owed)
My Rank: QB35 ADP: QB31 Verdict: SELL
Tagovailoa left a difficult 2025 season in Miami for a one-year prove-it deal in Atlanta, and he has taken every first-team rep so far. That is a real head start. But Michael Penix Jr. is working back from a torn ACL, and the Falcons have made clear this will be a genuine competition once Penix is cleared for contact.
Bottom line: Fade Tagovailoa until the job is settled. That uncertainty is exactly why I have him ranked below where the field is drafting him. This is one of the murkiest quarterback situations in the league, and murky is not where I want to spend a pick in fantasy drafts.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, news and everything going on around the NFL, head to RotoWire's NFL Fantasy Football News Today or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
Running Back
Kenneth Walker III, Chiefs
Contract: 3 years, $43 million ($28.7 guaranteed), as UFA from Seahawks
My Rank: RB14 ADP: RB11 Verdict: SELL
Walker is coming off a Super Bowl MVP performance in Seattle, which makes this one of the more surprising landing spots in the whole group. Kansas City gives him a strong offense to join, but Andy Reid has never been generous with pure between-the-tackles runners, and Patrick Mahomes working back from a torn ACL could push passing-down work to a complementary back instead of Walker.
Bottom line: Fade Walker at his current price. I like him as a player more than I like the fit, and the style and patience questions in Reid's system are real.
Travis Etienne, Saints
Contract: 4 years, $48 million ($28 million guaranteed), as UFA from Jaguars
My Rank: RB22 ADP: RB17 Verdict: SELL
Etienne leaves Jacksonville for a four-year deal in New Orleans, but the offensive line he is inheriting is a real concern. A lead back is only as good as the blockers in front of him, and this line does not clear the kind of room Etienne ran through in his best seasons.
Bottom line: Fade the name value. The touches should be there, but the efficiency and scoring chances are no sure thing behind this offensive line. His name recognition outpaces the actual role.
David Montgomery, Texans
Trade: From Lions for OL Juice Scruggs, 2026 fourth-round pick, 2027 seventh-round pick
My Rank: RB20 ADP: RB20 Verdict: BUY
Montgomery, who signed a two-year, $16.5 contract after being traded to Houston, was stuck in a timeshare with Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit. Houston hands him the early down and short-yardage work behind an improved offensive line, with C.J. Stroud efficient enough to keep drives on schedule.
Bottom line: The ADP has not fully priced in the workload jump. Getting a real bell-cow role at a committee-back price is exactly the value I want in the middle rounds.
Kenneth Gainwell, Buccaneers
Contract: 2 years, $14 million ($9.8 million guaranteed), as UFA from Steelers
My Rank: RB34 ADP: RB32 Verdict: SELL
Gainwell caught 73 passes with Pittsburgh in 2025 largely because of Aaron Rodgers' quick release, a scheme quirk that will not repeat itself in Tampa Bay. He walks into a genuine committee alongside Bucky Irving, with no heavy-personnel role to lean on.
Bottom line: Fade Gainwell in re-draft leagues. Without the receiving role, he loses the one skill that made him fantasy relevant. I have him lower than where he is going off the board.
Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jaguars
Contract: 2 years, $10 million ($6.2 million guaranteed), as RFA from Commanders
My Rank: RB32 ADP: RB44 Verdict: BUY
Rodriguez never got the touches he deserved in Washington. In three seasons, he carried 198 times for a 4.7 yards per carry average, including a 112-carry, 500-yard, six-touchdown season in last season out of a crowded backfield. Jacksonville now may hand him a between-the-tackles, short-yardage role as the physical complement to Bhayshul Tuten's speed, the thunder to Tuten's lightning.
Bottom line: This is the single best value in the group. A back this efficient, walking into a clearly defined role, 12 spots below my number on the board, is a buy in every format.
Stay informed with fantasy football news and track usage roles with the NFL depth charts.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown, Patriots
Trade: From Eagles for 2028 first-round pick, 2027 fifth-round pick
My Rank: WR10 ADP: WR8 Verdict: HOLD
Brown leaves Philadelphia for New England in one of the biggest trades of the offseason, reuniting with Mike Vrabel, for whom he played 2019-21 in Tennessee. Vrabel is not going to let his new WR1 disappear inside the game plan, as happened at times in Philadelphia. Drake Maye is coming off an MVP-runner-up caliber season and should feed Brown early and often.
Bottom line: My number and the market basically agree. This is fair value, not a market inefficiency, so draft him where he falls and expect the target share Vrabel has already signaled he intends to deliver.
DJ Moore, Bills
Trade: From Bears (with 2026 fifth-round pick) for 2026 second-round pick
My Rank: WR17 ADP: WR28 Verdict: BUY
Moore trades Chicago's uneven quarterback play for Josh Allen, the best quarterback situation of his career. The chemistry reports out of Buffalo have been strong all spring and summer, and Allen has never lacked for reasons to force the ball to a talented outside receiver.
Bottom line: An 11-spot gap between my rank and the field's is the largest of any receiver in this group. Moore is one of the better values at the position this summer.
Jaylen Waddle, Broncos
Trade: From Dolphins (with 2026 fourth-round pick) for 2026 first- (30th), third- and fourth-round picks
My Rank: WR18 ADP: WR22 Verdict: BUY
Waddle escapes a chaotic Miami passing game for Denver, where he was specifically acquired to be a yards-after-catch weapon in Sean Payton's offense. That is a real schematic upgrade from whatever Miami was running by the end of last season.
Bottom line: Better quarterback play, a clearer role and a discount compared to my number. Waddle is a value at his current cost.
Michael Pittman, Steelers
Trade: From Colts (with 2026 seventh-round pick) for 2026 sixth-round pick
My Rank: WR35 ADP: WR41 Verdict: BUY
Pittman leaves an Indianapolis passing game that never fully featured him for a Pittsburgh offense that lacks a clearly established top receiver. Aaron Rodgers still knows how to find a big target in the red zone.
Bottom line: A six-spot gap in his favor plus a wide-open target competition he can win. Pittman is a player to target in drafts.
Wan'Dale Robinson, Titans
Contract: 4 years, $70 million ($38 million guaranteed), as UFA from Giants
My Rank: WR49 ADP: WR45 Verdict: SELL
Robinson leaves the Giants for Tennessee, where Carnell Tate, a top-four pick, is already positioned as Cam Ward's primary target. Robinson profiles as a complementary piece behind the receiver the Titans clearly built their passing game around.
Bottom line: Pass on Robinson at this price. The role does not support the current cost, and I would rather wait a round for a receiver with a clearer path to targets.
Romeo Doubs, Patriots
Contract: 4 years, $68 million ($39 million guaranteed), as UFA from Packers
My Rank: WR51 ADP: WR52 Verdict: SELL
Doubs left Green Bay for New England, but A.J. Brown's blockbuster trade a month later instantly buried him in target competition. New England's offense seems likely to spread the ball around top options not named A.J. Brown.
Bottom line: Fade Doubs anyway. My number and the ADP roughly agree, but the path to weekly relevance got a lot more crowded the day Brown arrived.
Jauan Jennings, Vikings
Contract: 1 year, $8 million ($6.1 million guaranteed), as UFA from 49ers
My Rank: WR64 ADP: WR60 Verdict: SELL
The rankings number above has not caught up to what I believe about his role. Jennings signed with Minnesota late in the process and profiles as a three-receiver-set player who blocks more than he catches passes, with Jefferson and Addison entrenched as the clear top options.
Bottom line: Fade Jennings regardless of what the current rank says. I expect this number to move down as camp confirms the role.
Christian Kirk, 49ers
Contract: 1 year, $3 million ($2.8 million guaranteed), as UFA from Texans
My Rank: WR82 ADP: WR76 Verdict: SELL
Kirk leaves Houston for the slot role San Francisco's offense vacated, but that role only carries fantasy value if the receivers ahead of him miss time.
Bottom line: Fade Kirk in single-league formats. There is no standalone role here worth drafting, and he projects as a free-agent pickup rather than a draft-day target.
Jalen Nailor, Raiders
Contract: 3 years, $35 million ($23 million guaranteed), as UFA from Vikings
My Rank: WR60 ADP: WR61 Verdict: BUY
Nailor leaves a crowded Minnesota receiver room, where he was behind Jefferson, Addison and Jennings, for a Las Vegas offense that lacks a true top receiver. Nailor has a chance to emerge as the team's leading receiver by target share.
Bottom line: The rank and ADP are basically identical, but the opportunity here is bigger than either number suggests. Nailor is a sneaky value in the back end of drafts.
Tight End
Isaiah Likely, Giants
Contract: 3 years, $40 million ($26 million guaranteed), as UFA from Ravens
My Rank: TE14 ADP: TE13 Verdict: HOLD
Likely spent his run in Baltimore blocked by Mark Andrews, and New York hands him a real target share in a thin receiving corps. That is a legitimate opportunity gain.
But pivot: The market has already found this story. His ADP is ahead of my rank, which tells me the price caught up to the profile faster than usual for a tight end.
Bottom line: I like the player and the role, just not enough to chase him above where I already have him ranked.
Chig Okonkwo, Washington
Contract: 3 years, $27 million ($16.7 million guaranteed), as UFA from Titans
My Rank: TE13 ADP: TE17 Verdict: BUY
Okonkwo posted at least 50 receptions each of his three seasons inside a dysfunctional Tennessee passing game. Washington hands him a clear lead tight end role and a genuine upgrade at quarterback in Jayden Daniels.
Bottom line: A four-spot gap between my number and the field, at a position where target competition is often the difference between a top-12 tight end and a wasted roster spot. Okonkwo is a value.
David Njoku, Chargers
Contract: 1 year, $3 million ($850,000 guaranteed), as UFA from Browns
My Rank: TE30 ADP: TE32 Verdict: SELL
Njoku was released by Cleveland and landed in Los Angeles, but the numbers hide the real story. He joins a rotation with Oronde Gadsden and Charlie Kolar rather than stepping into a clear starting role, and I expect him to approach his career low in targets.
Bottom line: Fade Njoku. A new team is not always a fresh start, and this landing spot limits him more than it helps him, regardless of what the ADP says.
.
Dominate your fantasy football league this season with our 2026 RotoWire fantasy football draft kit. Use code "JIM" for 15 percent off. Packed with expert insights, rankings and strategy tips, the kit features our interactive mock draft simulator to prepare you for every scenario. Streamline your draft-day decisions using our printable cheat sheet and stay ahead of the competition with our up-to-date rankings for all formats. Subscribe to RotoWire now.
