This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.
CFB DFS Picks: DraftKings College Football Week 6 DFS Picks and Plays
This is one of those weeks where you're thankful there's college football DFS because, without it, you'd really have to squint to find much in the way of meaningful matchups on Saturday. That's alright. There are so many high-scoring games and high implied totals that help make this slate one with tons of possibilities for lineup builds.
Slate Overview
If you lean on high implied totals, teams like Alabama, Penn State and Georgia will catch your eye this week. Each of them are expected to score between 37 and 38 points on Saturday. The issue is each of them are favored by more than three touchdowns and in Penn State's case, more than four touchdowns. Blowout scripts can make it trickier to get the most out of your players, especially the usual workhorses in a given offense.
We'll dig into some options from those teams, but first I'd like to take a closer look at the games that check the boxes for both high totals and narrow spreads.
Oklahoma State (-3) vs West Virginia; O/U 64.5
SP+ has this one coming in a little bit under the current total but both teams are still expected to push for 30 points. DraftKings still believes in Ollie Gordon as they still list him as the highest $ skill player on the slate ($9,000). He had his best outing against an FBS team last week in terms of total yardage (76 Rushing, 20 Receiving) but was held out of the end zone for a third straight week. It's encouraging that he had 5.1 YPC but most of his damage came in the first quarter. He's tough to justify at-cost other than tournaments because the roster percentage is ticking down for him ever week.
Both quarterbacks, Garrett Greene ($8,000) and Alan Bowman ($7,600) have appeal and could be used in the same lineup when you're loading up on this game. Greene is harder to stack with pass catchers as WVU spreads the ball around to a lot of different options. The OK State offense throws it nearly 60 percent of the time amid Gordon's struggles and Bowman's favorite targets are easy to identify.
Brennan Presley ($7,400) paces the group and has a great floor thanks to a Tar/G figure (11.4) that ranks second behind only Tre Harris on this slate. De'Zhaun Stribling ($6,100) has been the best point-per-dollar option in this offense all year and is still plenty reasonable in terms of his salary. We continue to wait on Rashod Owens' ($4,800) breakout game as he has yet to cross 15 DK points against any FBS opponent after posting four such games last year. At $4,800 I'm willing to take another shot against a WVU defense that gives up 9.2 YPA.
Pittsburgh (-3) at North Carolina; O/U 64.0
Another game SP+ expects to go under -- this time by almost seven points -- this is still one of the better DFS matchups on the slate for attacking both sides.
Readers of this article know I'm a big fan of Pitt's offense. DraftKings is making it a little tricky to roster Eli Holstein at $9K but Jacolby Criswell on UNC projects pretty nicely at $8,100.
The backfield options are really interesting here. Omarion Hampton ($8,700) is a stud who has an absurd 58 percent rushing share that scales up over 70% when UNC faces P4 competition. He has gone over 100 rushing yards in each game that he's carried the ball more than 11 times and the setup here certainly suggests he'll get fed Saturday.
On the other side, things have suddenly gotten very interesting. Desmond Reid ($8,300) was one of the best backs in the country through the first month of the season. However, he did not play last week against Youngstown State. The more concerning thing for Reid is that Rodney Hammond ($3,000) was finally deemed eligible to play earlier this week and after salaries were released.
Hammond led this backfield last year and I expected him to do so before he was ruled ineligible 24 hours before the season opener. At min-price and over 300 carries under his belt, Hammond is a really interesting wrinkle on this slate. Regardless of whether Hammond smashes value, $8,300 becomes a little too much to sink into Reid with his new workload now uncertain.
Ole Miss (-9) at South Carolina; O/U 54.0
The total here is decidedly lower than the other two games we discussed but it's an interesting game nonetheless. It's funny how the South Carolina/Kentucky game has been kind of a sliding-doors moment for this season. The Gamecocks went into Lexington and wrecked shop. This sent public perception of Kentucky spiraling. When Kentucky nearly beat Georgia in Week 3, it felt more like an indictment of the Dawgs than a sign of things turning around for the 'Cats.
Then Kentucky beat Mississippi in Oxford and now nobody knows what to think.
Is South Carolina actually really good given the resume? Is Ole Miss the same as it's always been under Lane? I'm hoping Saturday provides us with some answers.
When it comes to the DFS elements in this game, it might be a good time to buy back in on Ole Miss. The field will probably be soured on the Rebs after last week and the top-billed guys like Jaxson Dart ($9,900) and Tre Harris ($8,900) are still fairly cost-prohibitive, especially in a tough road environment.
South Carolina doesn't throw it nearly enough to feel good about the pass-catchers, though Mazeo Bennett ($4,000) may be worth a look if you're loading up on this game. The big key is that it looks like LaNorris Sellers ($5,800) is expected back after two weeks off. He is the engine of the offense and could have some nice production relative to the salary figure.
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Quarterback
Jacolby Criswell ($8,100) North Carolina vs Pittsburgh
We mentioned targeting this game earlier but need to go into a little more depth on Criswell himself. Sure, losing to JMU and Duke isn't a great way to start your tenure but there has been some encouraging production thus far. He has five passing touchdowns in those two outings and has a home matchup against a Pitt defense that has been vulnerable through the air.
Tyler Shough ($7,000) Louisville
Shough's streak of games without an interception came to an end last week but he still turned in a solid enough outing overall with 24.16 DK points on a $7,400 salary. He returns home to face SMU this week at $7,000
Now, SMU has a sneaky-good defense that ranks 13th in defensive efficiency according to FPI but it's not impenetrable. TCU hung 42 on the Mustangs a few weeks back though rivalry games can admittedly get a little weird. Louisville's offense, meanwhile, ranks 21st in FPI and skews slightly toward the pass at 50.6 percent. Shough also has his full complement of weapons now that Caullin Lacy is back in the fold. $7K is too cheap for a guy of Shough's talent in a game with the 3rd-highest total on the board. Kevin Jennings ($6,200) on the SMU side is also worth a look.
Alan Bowman ($7,600) Oklahoma State vs West Virginia
Bowman hasn't quite taken advantage of his high passing volume the last two weeks, completing 42 of 83 attempts with a 6.8 YPA. Both games have featured disastrous turnovers with a pair of picks in each. Returning home to face the worst pass defense on the slate will help.
West Virginia's opponents have averaged 9.2 YPA and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. With Bowman down to a reasonable figure with good game script tailwinds working in his favor and stackable options alongside him, he's a solid play this weekend.
Others to Consider: Jalen Milroe ($10,400), Alabama; Jaxson Dart ($9,900), Mississippi; Garrett Greene ($8,000) West Virginia; Kyron Drones ($8,500), Virginia Tech; CJ Bailey, NC State ($5,100)
Running Back
Tawee Walker ($5,100) Wisconsin vs Purdue
Forgive me if this is the Captain Obvious play of the week after Chez Mellusi stepped away from the program a few days ago. You still need to know that Walker has gone from fringe option this week to a near must-play.
Walker was already starting to pull away from Mellusi as the primary back after splitting work with him against Alabama and out-carrying him against USC. The Oklahoma transfer has looked solid thus far outside of the Alabama game, scoring three total touchdowns combined against Western Michigan and USC.
With a path to upwards of 20 cracks at the worst run defense in the Power Four (15 Rushing Touchdowns allowed, 242 rushing yards per game), Walker should cruise to value at $5,100. The rub is that he might be pushing 60+% rostered in most contests, but not all chalk is bad chalk.
If you're looking to get at another piece of the Wisconsin backfield that isn't as chalky, RotoWire's own CFB editor and Badger consigliere, Chris Benzine, noted to me that Darrion Dupree ($3,000) may get some run if Wisconsin pulls away.
Brashard Smith ($7,800) SMU at Louisville
Again, this is a big game to target on this slate. Louisville has shown some backbone against the run this season (2.83 YPC) and even slowed Notre Dame to just 3.7 YPC. Luckily, Smith isn't just a runner. He does everything in the Mustang offense.
Smith, the transfer from Miami, averages 2.4 targets per game and pops for 10.1 yards per target. Louisville has mostly kept a lid on pass-catchers out of the backfield at a 3.6 YPT clip.
Louisville's surface-level defensive metrics along with Smith's $7,800 salary might keep his salary in check but he is every bit talented enough to end up working in your builds this weekend.
Rodney Hammond ($3,000) Pittsburgh at North Carolina
It's not often we get gifted a min-priced option with real juice. That's what we have here in Hammond. As we discussed, Hammond is a seasoned part of this backfield that hadn't played with this year after surprisingly being ruled ineligible before the opener. Now cleared, Hammond stands to get right back into the mix.
Now, Desmond Reid ($8,300) has averaged 47 percent of the rushing work when he's been active this season. We assume he'll be ready to go on Saturday and he won't just disappear from the offense just because Hammond is back. Still, Hammond should push for an RB2 role in this offense right away. Hammond's stats from previous years may not wow you, but it's also important to remember that Pitt's offense hasn't been nearly this good since the Kenny Pickett/Jordan Addison days.
If Hammond can get to 10 total touches and maybe find the end zone, we'll be happy here.
Jahiem White ($5,300) West Virginia at Oklahoma State
This game sets up really nicely to target the OK State passing game and the Mountaineer ground game. The 'Pokes haven't allowed fewer than 232 rushing yards to any P4 opponent this season and just got gashed by a K-State offense that has a very similar shape to it as West Virginia's.
Now, quarterback Garrett Greene is a vulture threat and CJ Donaldson is firmly in the carry rotation. Still, White has been surprisingly quiet thus far after running for nearly 850 yards on just 109 carries last year. He'll be fresh coming off the bye and West Virginia should be intentional about getting him more involved. This is a great spot for it on the road against a bad run defense.
Justice Haynes ($6,300) Alabama at Vanderbilt
Alabama is going to be looking to get this one over as quickly as possible. There's no need to risk much and no need to throw it all over the yard. 'Bama should still push for upwards of 40 points, though, and it'd make sense to have a player like Haynes shoulder a good bit of the workload.
The 13 touches Haynes saw against USF should be around what we can expect this time around and hopefully he'll be able to deliver a more efficient performance than he did in that outing (3.5 YPC).
Others to Consider: Kaytron Allen, Penn State ($5,800) -- note that Nicholas Singleton popped up on the injury report this week. We expect him to play but with Penn State set as heavy favorites, we may see a healthy dose of Allen against a bad UCLA defense.
Jordan Waters, NC State ($4,800)
Wide Receiver
Here's this week's target table. It accounts for the last three weeks and filters the pool to a minimum of 4.5 targets per game and a minimum of 9.5 yards per target in that span. It's not perfect, but the idea is to get a sense of who's getting work right now and who's doing the most with it.
Rank | Name | Team | TAR/G | YDS/TAR | TM TAR % | TAR | REC | YDS | TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tre Harris | Miss | 14 | 11.8 | 45.7 | 42 | 32 | 495 | 3 |
4 | De'Zhaun Stribling | OkSt | 8.3 | 15.2 | 20.3 | 25 | 17 | 381 | 3 |
10 | Jaylin Lane | VaTech | 6.7 | 9.7 | 25 | 20 | 13 | 193 | 1 |
12 | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | Auburn | 6.3 | 16.1 | 21.8 | 19 | 12 | 305 | 3 |
13 | Jahmal Banks | Neb | 6 | 10.5 | 20.7 | 18 | 14 | 189 | 1 |
14 | Luther Burden | Mizzou | 9 | 10.7 | 27.3 | 18 | 12 | 193 | 3 |
20 | Talyn Shettron | OkSt | 5.3 | 12.6 | 13 | 16 | 9 | 201 | 1 |
21 | Emeka Egbuka | OhioSt | 7.5 | 14.2 | 23.8 | 15 | 12 | 213 | 2 |
23 | Hudson Clement | WVU | 7 | 11.3 | 25 | 14 | 8 | 158 | 0 |
24 | Isaiah Neyor | Neb | 4.7 | 9.9 | 16.1 | 14 | 7 | 139 | 3 |
25 | Ja'Corey Brooks | Lou | 6.5 | 15.1 | 23.6 | 13 | 9 | 196 | 3 |
29 | Arian Smith | UGa | 6.5 | 11.2 | 17.6 | 13 | 8 | 145 | 1 |
34 | Konata Mumpfield | Pitt | 6 | 11.3 | 18.8 | 12 | 10 | 136 | 0 |
37 | Ian Strong | Rut | 6 | 12.5 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 150 | 1 |
42 | Ryan Williams | BAMA | 5.5 | 23.2 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 255 | 2 |
45 | Kenny Johnson | Pitt | 5 | 9.7 | 15.6 | 10 | 8 | 97 | 1 |
48 | Chris Bell | Lou | 5 | 10.3 | 18.2 | 10 | 5 | 103 | 1 |
50 | Jeremiah Smith | OhioSt | 4.5 | 17 | 14.3 | 9 | 8 | 153 | 2 |
52 | Carnell Tate | OhioSt | 4.5 | 12.9 | 14.3 | 9 | 7 | 116 | 0 |
54 | Traylon Ray | WVU | 4.5 | 10.3 | 16.1 | 9 | 5 | 93 | 0 |
55 | Cam Coleman | Auburn | 4.5 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 9 | 5 | 97 | 0 |
88 | Trell Harris | UVa | 5 | 14.4 | 9.1 | 5 | 4 | 72 | 0 |
89 | Jared Brown | SCar | 5 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 5 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
Tre Harris ($8,900) Mississippi at South Carolina
This is again a play that people might be off Harris given the price tag and the Rebs' rough showing last week. Harris was nothing but great last week, though, dropping 36 DK points on Kentucky with a roster percentage under 10.
Let's go back to that well this week. The guy averages 160.8 yards per game and nearly 10 catches per game. No one else on Ole Miss comes even close to his target rate.
We will need to keep an eye on his status. He was questionable on Wednesday and bumped up to probable on Thursday but we still won't know for sure until an hour before kick, which is a little tricky when Ole Miss plays in the later window.
Luther Burden ($8,400) Missouri at Texas A&M
Neither Missouri nor Burden has been as good as expected this year. Mizzou had to scrape by against BC and Vandy at home and now has to hit the road in a tough environment. Still, Burden quietly had strong performances in those games with over 25 DraftKings points in each. His target share in those two games checks in at 27.3.
It's time for Missouri to kick into gear and Burden can be the catalyst behind that.
Noah Thomas ($3,800) is shockingly cheap on the other side of this matchup. Missouri is tough against the pass, ranking 5th in the nation, but Thomas has a 33 percent target share over the last three weeks and is starting to gel with Marcel Reed ($6,200). We will have to see if A&M goes back to Conner Weigman (questionable) provided he's cleared to play. Luckily we will have clarity on that before kickoff. I hope.
Elic Ayomanor ($6,400) Stanford and Jaylin Lane ($5,700) Virginia Tech
The over/under in this game doesn't stand out (49.5). Don't let that make you scroll past it entirely, though. There is some serious vulnerability in Stanford's secondary as it allows 287.8 passing yards per game. Virginia Tech's pass defense rates better but is still middle-of-the-pack overall.
Lane paces the Hokies in targets at 6.2/G and averages a solid 9.5 YPT. He has just one touchdown on the year but this profiles as one of his most favorable matchups this season. If you're looking for dirt-cheap exposure to the Hokie passing game, Stephen Gosnell ($3,100) looked really impressive against Miami last Friday with four grabs for 53 yards on six targets. He's up to 11.7 YPT on the year over 19 targets.
Ayomanor on the other side dominates Stanford's passing game with a 31.7 percent target share. He's a little behind the pace from his 9.0 YPT clip last year (7.3) but he is still getting plenty of work and has touchdowns in back-to-back games. He's a strong mid-range option who is a must-have if you're loading up on this game.