Marcelo Mayer

21-Year-Old ShortstopSS
Boston Red Sox AAA
Out
Injury Back
Est. Return 2/1/2025
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Mayer mastered Double-A (142 wRC+ in 77 games) after struggling at that level in 2023 (63 wRC+ in 43 games), but after another injury-marred season, his fragility is starting to become his most discussed quality. His 91 games in 2022 represent a career high, and perhaps fittingly, he was promoted to Triple-A in early August but never got into a game for Worcester due to hip and back injuries. He slashed .307/.370/.480 with eight home runs, 13 steals, a 19.7 percent strikeout rate and an excellent 31.5 percent hard-hit rate as a 21-year-old repeating Double-A. Mayer's best skills are his shortstop defense, followed by above-average power and a potentially above-average hit tool. He has multiple years with double-digit steals in the minors, but Mayer's pure speed is average at best, so we can't bank on him making a notable impact in stolen bases. Even if Mayer reached his realistic fantasy ceiling, he'd be a fringe top-15 fantasy shortstop due to the lack of a standout tool, and his durability issues make it difficult to sell him as a potential compiler in the Dansby Swanson mold. He'll be an option this summer if he's healthy and Trevor Story is hurt or struggling. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
$Signed a $6.66 million contract with the Red Sox in July of 2021.
Likely done for season
SSBoston Red Sox  AAA
Back
August 26, 2024
Mayer has shifted his rehab program to the Red Sox's facility in Florida and is not expected to return from Triple-A Worcester's 7-day injured list before the end of the season while he recovers from a lumbar strain, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
ANALYSIS
Promoted to Triple-A on Aug. 12 along with fellow top prospects Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony, Mayer has yet to debut for Worcester and will now have to wait until 2025 to do so. Mayer had produced an .850 OPS to go with 13 stolen bases in 335 plate appearances at Double-A Portland but hadn't played since July 30 due to what the Red Sox initially viewed as a short-term hip issue. With Mayer's effort to return to game action having plateaued in recent weeks, however, the 21-year-old was sent in for further medical evaluation, at which point he was diagnosed with the lumbar strain. On a positive note, Mayer is expected to make a full recovery from the injury and have a normal offseason, putting him on track to enter spring training without any restrictions.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
Mayer will be a big-league regular, but the closer he gets to the majors, the less he looks like a future fantasy star. As one of the slower shortstop prospects of note, Mayer won't be a major threat on the bases, so he has to move the needle at the plate. His walk rate has decreased at every full-season stop, dipping to 7.9 percent in 43 games at Double-A, and his 25.8 percent strikeout rate at Double-A was the worst mark of his career. Mayer reportedly dealt with a left shoulder impingement during his struggles at Double-A, and he eventually got shut down in early-August and received an injection in September. He has a career .280/.371/.494 slash line with 11 home runs in 60 games at High-A, so if the injury was the cause of his issues at Double-A, he could bounce back with similar production to what he showed at High-A in 2022 and 2023. A big reason Mayer ranks highly on real-life prospect rankings is his plus defense at shortstop, and while that figures to guarantee him playing time in the future, that's the extent of its importance for his fantasy value. He could debut late this year, but don't expect him to produce at an acceptable clip in fantasy until at least 2025.
Mayer's top skill so far in pro ball has been his patience at the plate, sporting a career 15.6 BB% in 531 plate appearances from rookie ball through High-A. His strikeout rate has remained a steady 25% while showing average game power as a teenager. Despite middling home run totals, Mayer's 36.0 Hard% and 14.0 Soft% were excellent marks in his full-season debut, and he could end up with above-average or plus game power in a few years. He's nearly physically mature and nowhere near as fast as his 17-for-17 on the bases in 2022 indicates. He doesn't have the typical athleticism associated with shortstop, but most evaluators believe he can stick there, at least early in his big-league career. At this point, Mayer might be more appealing in dynasty leagues for his high floor than his ceiling, but there are still some pretty high-end potential outcomes if he can cut down on the strikeouts in the coming years.
Four of the top six fantasy prospects from the 2021 draft were prep shortstops, and Mayer may be the best of the bunch. Some analysts thought he should have been the pick at 1-1, but he slid to Boston with the fourth-overall pick and signed for slot value ($6.66 million). His bat will be his calling card, as he projects as a plus hitter from the left side who should grow into plus all-fields power. At 6-foot-3, 188 pounds, he has a prototypical frame to grow into without compromising his baseball actions. He is just a fringe-average runner now and should slow down, so his range won't be great, but he's a very smooth defender who makes all the routine plays. Mayer was as good as advertised in his limited pro debut, hitting .275/.377/.440 with three home runs and a 121 wRC+ in 26 games in the Florida Complex League. His patience at the plate was noteworthy (14.0 BB%), and while he didn't face strong competition, he was age-appropriate for the level. His picturesque left-handed swing and extensive track record make him as close to a can't-miss high school prospect as we've seen in recent years.
More Fantasy News
Goes back on Triple-A IL
SSBoston Red Sox  AAA
Hip
August 20, 2024
Triple-A Worcester will place Mayer (hip) on the 7-day injured list Tuesday, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
ANALYSIS
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Day-to-day with hip issue
SSBoston Red Sox  AAA
Hip
August 17, 2024
Mayer hasn't played since July 30 due to a hip issue, but he is considered day-to-day, Katie Morrison-O'Day of MassLive.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Moves up to Triple-A
SSBoston Red Sox  AAA
August 11, 2024
The Red Sox promoted Mayer from Double-A Portland to Triple-A Worcester on Sunday, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
ANALYSIS
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On 7-day IL at Double-A
SSBoston Red Sox  AAA
Hip
August 1, 2024
Double-A Portland placed Mayer on the 7-day injured list Thursday with hip irritation, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
ANALYSIS
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Managing pec injury
SSBoston Red Sox  AAA
Pectoral
July 24, 2024
Mayer was held out of Double-A Portland's lineup Tuesday and Wednesday due to pectoral soreness, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Unlikely to skip Triple-A
SSBoston Red Sox  AAA
May 25, 2024
Sean McAdam of The Springfield Republican doesn't expect the Red Sox to call up Mayer directly from Double-A Portland this season.
ANALYSIS
The 21-year-old was limited to 78 games last season due to shoulder issues, but he's been healthy so far in 2024 and has hit well for Portland with a .293/.337/.467 slash line in 41 games. Mayer is Boston's top infield prospect, and the organization is unlikely to rush his development this summer. A promotion to Triple-A Worcester at some point in 2024 seems likely given his current production, and he should have a good chance of making his MLB debut in 2025.
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