College Cappers: Picking Winners Week 13

Chris' Picks

That's three consecutive 3-2 weeks, continuing a successful run of mediocrity that is welcomed after the first two months of the season. Let's stay (kind of) hot!

Memphis (-14) at South Florida

I don't enjoy going against a team for a second consecutive week after losing the week prior. But I don't see how USF can keep up against Memphis. Yes, their defense has been decent to good lately, allowing 20 or fewer points in their last three games against ECU, Temple and Cincinnati. But Memphis is an entirely different animal. The 9-1 Tigers have scored at least 42 in four straight and seven times overall. The Bulls are incredibly offensively challenged, scoring just 27 points in their last three losses. Memphis can't afford to overlook USF if it wants to keep pace with Cincinnati and set up next week's showdown. Expect the Tigers to take care of business with ease.

Wake Forest (-7) vs. Duke

Going against offensively challenged teams is my theme this week. Duke's wheels have come off. The Blue Devils scored just 13 points the last two weeks and 44 points in the last four, all losses, going 0-3-1 ATS. Allowing 38 to Notre Dame isn't surprising, but 48 to Virginia and 49 to Syracuse? I think there's value on the Wake side as the Demon Deacons are coming off two losses by big margins. QB Jamie Newman is by far the best player on the field, and Duke's defensive deficiencies will help hide the absence of star WR Sage Surratt. Wake won 59-7 at Duke last year, and nothing suggests the gap has narrowed enough to keep Duke within single digits.

Minnesota (-13.5) at Northwestern

Perhaps Minnesota suffers a hangover after last week's defeat. Perhaps Northwestern has found something offensively after finally scoring against UMass. Perhaps not. Northwestern has been so bad offensively it's hard not to target this low number. The Wildcats are winless in conference, going 2-5 ATS. Save for a 22-point outing against Purdue, they've managed 41 points in six games, just 6.83 per game. The Gophers rank 28th in scoring defense and 15th in total defense. As long as Iowa doesn't beat them two weeks in a row, the Gophers shouldn't need much more than three TDs to cover, something they've produced in all of their wins. The status/availability of Gophers QB Tanner Morgan (concussion) is of concern, but with any luck, the ambiguity or his absence pushes this line down some.

Tennessee (+4) at Missouri

Two teams moving in opposite directions. Missouri remains banned from the postseason, and has now gone 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four, scoring only 27 points in that span. Tennessee, meanwhile, has covered in five straight, going 4-1 SU in that stretch with their only defeat coming against Alabama. The Vols looked to have turned the corner and are playing hard for coach Jeremy Pruitt, while there are rumors of locker room unrest for the Tigers and coach Barry Odom. It's not pretty with the Vols offense still, but given the current form of Missouri's offense, questions about QB Kelly Bryant's availability and Tennessee having bowl game interest, getting points here feels great.  I like Tennessee to win outright.

Miami (-20) vs. Florida International 

Full disclosure, I'm a Miami homer and almost never include them here as a result. This just looks like a huge mismatch, especially along the lines where Miami should live in the FIU backfield against a non-mobile QB in Panthers James Morgan, while UM RBs DeeJay Dallas and Cam'Ron Harris should feast on a Panthers run defense that ranks 113th, allowing 5.3 ypc, 205.2 ypg and 22 rushing scores. FIU's wins have come over UTEP, UNC Charlotte, UMass, Old Dominion and New Hampshire. It lost to Tulane by 28, FAU by 30 and MTSU by 33, is 0-5 ATS in its last five and has totaled 24 points in their last two losses. Miami, meanwhile, is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five. Both trends continue.

Last week: 3-2; Season 26-35-1

GREG'S PICKS

An ultimately frustrating showing last week as all three losses were winnable, but none came through. Ohio State wasn't close in the end, but for quite a while, the Buckeyes looked like the right side. In the end, though, it was a lot to ask of a team laying 50-plus points with next to no motivation. Minnesota lost by four and missed an extra point. The Clemson over was well within range until the fourth quarter when neither team could get anything going. The wins were just the opposite, no drama in either one. UMass covered with ease, though to my surprise, Northwestern did have the ball with a chance to cover with more than two minutes left in the game. Fortunately, the Minutemen managed to avoid surrendering a 70-yard TD run. Virginia Tech was the easiest cover of the weekend. The Hokies scored first and never looked back.  

Indiana (+9.5) vs. Michigan 

To their credit, the Wolverines have actually looked like a decent team the last couple months, but they're in a tough spot this week. The reason? Well, they played a rivalry game last week and after this game, yep, you guessed it, it's Ohio State. I don't expect to see the best they have to offer this week. On the other side of the ball, there's Indiana, which has played well above expectations this season. The only thing the Hoosiers are missing is a signature win. Michigan would certainly qualify, and while I don't see an upset, I do see Indiana scoring enough to keep it close.         

Texas Tech (-2.5) vs. Kansas State 

A few weeks ago, Kansas State was the toast of college football after knocking off then undefeated Oklahoma. Since then, the Wildcats haven't played their best football — expect that trend to continue this week. While Texas Tech has plenty of problems, especially on defense, the biggest liability of the Red Raiders is their pass defense. Kansas State, however, will have a hard time taking advantage of that deficiency as QB Skylar Thompson is only a danger on the ground. The Red Raiders will score plenty of points and Kansas State will have trouble matching them score for score.             

Wake Forest (-7) vs. Duke 

Although they've failed to show it the last couple weeks, Wake Forest can actually move the ball pretty well on offense … when it isn't facing a tough defense. Enter Duke, which surrendered 49 points to Syracuse last week. In addition to its leaking defense, Duke also has a heck of a time scoring, averaging little more than 10 points per game in its last four. The Demon Deacons have struggled against Clemson and Virginia Tech the last two weeks, but I'll give them a pass as Clemson is, well, Clemson, and Virginia Tech has played like one of the better teams in the ACC  the last month.      

East Carolina (-14.5) at UConn

East Carolina enters this game at 3-7, which looks terrible of course, but a closer look reveals a pretty tough schedule, at least, tough for AAC standards. While the Pirates don't have much to show for their effort, they have won some respect  the last few weeks by taking both Cincinnati and Memphis down to the wire. Now they get one of the doormats of college football in UConn and it's finally time to have some fun. East Carolina has had no trouble scoring against the best teams in the AAC and won't have trouble scoring against the worst. The only question is if the defense can do its part. I think it can, and the Pirates roll in this spot.          

Illinois (+14.5) at Iowa 

What exactly does Illinois have to do to get some respect? The Illini beat Wisconsin at home, won two more games, then beat Michigan State on the road and yet, it is still two-touchdown underdogs against a team that just doesn't score that much. Iowa is coming off an intense win over Minnesota, a game in which fans stormed the field afterward and now the Hawkeyes are supposed to get jacked up for Illinois? It's not going to happen. Iowa will sleepwalk through the first half and by the time the Hawkeyes realize they are in a game, it will be too late to cover this number.      

Last Week: 2-3-0, Season: 30-29-2