Sweet 16 Preview: Midwest Region

Site: Kansas City
Tip-off: Thursday, March 23rd

In a tournament where chalk wins have been abundant, the Midwest region saw three of its top-four seeds reach the Sweet Sixteen. The biggest casualty in the first weekend was Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals, who fell victim to Michigan in a second-round upset. No. 11 Rhode Island made a valiant effort by beating No. 6 Creighton and nearly pulling off an upset against No. 3 Oregon, but Tyler Dorsey's 27-point performance (9-10 FG, 4-5 3Pt, 5-9 FT) was too much in the end for the Rams. The remaining four teams provide for a couple intriguing contrasts in both matchups and style.

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 4 Purdue

Key Matchup: This matchup pick was tough to pick, as Kansas boasts a stellar backcourt, while Purdue's front court is one of the best in the country, making for several defensive mismatches. That being said, I'll head straight to the matchup between National Player of the Year candidate Caleb "Biggie" Swanigan and likely NBA lottery pick Josh Jackson. Jackson is long and athletic at 6-foot-8, 207 pounds, but he'll need to play more physical in order to stop the 6-9, 250 pound Swanigan from getting buckets inside the paint. Likewise, Swanigan will also be put to the test against Jackson's natural scoring ability, improving outside shooting and finesse game.

Kansas will win IF: They continue offensively dominating and stop Purdue from getting second chance points. It will be crucial for the Jayhawks to keep their hot hand against Purdue's inside defense, and because of their size disadvantage, the guards will likely take more outside shots. Keeping Purdue's frontcourt at bay defensively will be difficult for Kansas, but they can make up for what they lack in rebounding by creating turnovers through steals and fast break points.

Purdue with win IF: They can put a stop to Jackson's hot hand and utilize Haas' size to their advantage. The Boilermakers have to find an answer to a team that has averaged 95 points per game through the first weekend of the Big Dance. Defense will be key, and fortunately for the Boilermakers, they have a definitive size advantage in the front court. They already proved capable when stopping one offensive juggernaut in the second round when they faced the high-powered Iowa State Cyclones. The second key for Purdue is to use their offensive rebounding prowess (ranked No. 8 in the country per KenPom.com) and capitalize by getting second-chance points out of their bigs.

Player to watch: Both teams have player of the year candidates in Frank Mason III and Caleb Swanigan, but it's the play of Mason that will likely decide this game. Through his first two tournament matchups, he's scored 42 points (14-30 FG, 3-11 3Pt, 11-12 FT), and racked up 13 assists. He was unable to connect from deep in the second round, missing all four three-point attempts, but may be needed if others are stopped. Mason will need to continue scoring -- both from the perimeter and by drawing contact in the lane -- in order for Kansas to come out victorious.

Prediction: I think this will come down to the wire, but Kansas is too hot right now for Purdue's defense to stop. I'm betting this will be one of the most highly contested Sweet Sixteen matchups.

No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 7 Michigan

Key Match-Up: Forwards D.J. Wilson and Dillon Brooks will be a matchup worth tuning in for in the frontcourt. Wilson has a size advantage and has averaged 18.0 points per game in the tournament, while Brooks has experience and the clutch factor, nailing buzzer beaters on three separate occasions this season. Brooks will have to get used to playing closer to the basket, as the absence of Chris Boucher (knee) and his 6.1 RPG average will leave plenty of opportunities on the glass. Brooks isn't nearly the shot blocker that Boucher was, but he'll have to keep the red-hot Wilson in check to force the Wolverines to look more to other scoring options.

Oregon will win IF: They don't let their depth issues at forward bother their offensive play. The Ducks showed signs of snapping against Rhode Island, and it was their guard play that brought them back. Dorsey may not need another 27-point effort in order to win, but staying hot certainly wouldn't hurt. They'll also need more from senior guard Dylan Ennis, who has just 12 combined points over his first two tournament games.

Michigan will win IF: They continue playing cohesive defense and play efficient basketball offensively. They are ranked the No. 3 team in the country in offensive efficiency, helped largely by the nation's No. 4 ranking in Effective FG Percentage (57.1), per KenPom. They struggle to defend the perimeter at times, shown by an opponent three-point field goal percentage of 37.5, which places them outside the nation's top-300. That being said, the senior leadership of Derrick Walton makes them incredibly difficult to put away in close games, as the "Team of Destiny" mojo has yet to fade yet.

Player to watch: Moritz Wagner will likely face Oregon's only current true big man, Jordan Bell, down low. Defensively he is strong, but he also possesses the ability to shoot anywhere on the court, averaging 1.2 made three-pointers per contest. Wagner is coming off a stellar 26-point performance against Louisville in which he made 11-14 field goals. He'll play a large part in drawing Bell and Brooks away from the basket, which could open up scoring lanes for the Michigan guards.

Prediction: I think Michigan pulls off the upset here. Oregon was able to overcome Rhode Island, but Michigan is too hot for a team with depth concerns to stop.