NCAA Tournament Preview: East Region

East Region
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Midwest Region
South Region

What appears to be an absolutely loaded East Region could make for tough sledding for the defending National Champions. All four top seeds are fresh off of conference tournament championships, while the No. 5 and No. 8 seeds reached the Final Four last season, adding depth that on name recognition alone, is elite. Outside of Stetson shocking the world against UConn, and maybe one team I won't mention until later, I think we can make a case for any team winning in the first round, which would set up absolute chaos next Saturday and beyond. When filling out your bracket, all I'll offer as a word of advice is don't let last week's successes be your driving factor.

The Favorites

No. 1 Connecticut - While no team has repeated as National Champions since 2006 and 2007, the Huskies check all of the boxes. They rank first in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, 11th defensively, sixth in effective field-goal percentage, fourth in effective field-goal percentage allowed, didn't lose at home and fell only three times all season. They can play slow or fast, and when they emulate head coach Danny Hurley's feistiness, no team in the country plays harder. They aren't particularly deep, but their starting five is as elite as they come, offering diverse production, with size and length in both the frontcourt and backcourt. There's ample reason why the Huskies enter the tournament as the betting favorite.

No. 2 Iowa State - The nation's top-ranked defense rolls in fresh off of beating the South Region's No. 1 seed in Houston for the second time this season, holding them to 41 points in the Big 12 Championship. The Cyclones create turnovers at an elite rate, 25.7 percent of opposing possessions, allowing them to get easy offensive opportunities in transition. They get elite guard play from Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert, but aren't big across their frountcourt. Free throw shooting is also a bit of a concern with the team hitting only 69.7 percent overall. All of their losses have come on the road or on a neutral court, but getting their first two games in Omaha, NE is a nice bonus. 

No. 3 Illinois - The Illini ran through the Big 10 tournament last week, averaging 89.3 ppg, in line with their season-long offensive success (they rank third nationally in efficiency). Defense is where the questions come, as they allowed 87 points in consecutive tournament games to Nebraska and Wisconsin. Despite the conference's overall resume, Illinois is arguably without a marquee win. With an ace scorer in Terrence Shannon, a complementary piece in Marcus Domask and size in the paint from Coleman Hawkins, Illinois is formidable and hot. This question is if they can get enough stops.

No. 4 Auburn - The Tigers emerged from arguably the deepest conference in the country as tournament winners and will ride into the dance having won six straight. No team is deeper than Bruce Pearl's bunch, as they'll come at you in waves with no player averaging more than 24.7 minutes and 10 players seeing double-digit minutes nightly. Auburn is elite defensively, ranking fourth in efficiency and first in effective field goal percentage allowed. The current form is tremendous, and as we can say with most teams nationally, Auburn needs to prove it can win away/on neutral courts. Carrying tremendous momentum into the tournament, it's important to remind ourselves that Auburn doesn't have a real marquee win, with its best showing being a home victory over rival Alabama.

Cinderella Watch

No. 14 Morehead State - Let's be clear here: the Ohio Valley Conference is not great, and the Eagles lost four times in conference. Their non-conference schedule does not suggest an upset is possible over Illinois, as they played fellow Big 10 opponents in Purdue, Penn State and Indiana and lost by a combined 54 points. Their KenPom metrics are heavily skewed by the OVC being weak. But, they rank 335th in adjusted tempo, ninth in effecitive field goal percentage defense, 31st in 3-point percentage defense and 16th in 2-point percentage defense. If they can slow Illinois down and create some tense shots later, there's a path.

No. 6 BYU - By definition, a six seed reaching the Sweet 16 would qualify as a Cinderella, so let's ride even if it's not some outlandish double-digit seed shocking the world. Duquesne is a feel good story, reaching the tournament for the first time since 1977. But did anyone watch the Atlantic 10 Final and see them go 5-for-29 from the floor in the second half? The Dukes have won eight in a row, and bring confidence into this spot; they just aren't good. I don't want to speak in absolutes, and there's no immediate line available, but BYU winning its first game is amongst my favorite picks across the opening round. If I'm giving Morehead State a puncher's chance, that would further boost the Cougars' ability to reach the second weekend of the tournament.

Biggest Bust

No. 3 Illinois - Truthfully, pick any of Auburn, Iowa State or Illinois given the surge they all ride in on; one of them isn't going to be able to sustain it. But two of these three teams play defense, and one doesn't. Morehead State can have an effective game plan to slow down Illinois in the first round, and I know BYU is the second-round opponent. The Illini have the higher-end talent, while the Cougars have both the depth and potentially the better body of work.

First-Round Upset

No. 7 Washington State over No. 10 Drake - How are we defining an upset? Is it simply the higher seed winning, or are we factoring in lines? The higher-seeded Bulldogs opened as a one-point favorite over the lower-seeded Cougars, and my expectation when filling out a bracket is Drake will be the popular choice. Sometimes that's enough to back the less popular side, which I'll do here. Statistically, these two are neck and neck, and it appears to be strength on strength. Drake is 38th in offensive efficiency, Washington State 27th in defensive efficiency. On the other side, Washington State is 64th offensively, Drake 75th defensively. Both teams are elite rebounding units, so this is a true toss-up. I'm simply expecting a narrative to build in favor of Drake, the masses to follow, and I'll zig where everyone else zags. Drake's non-conference schedule leaves a lot to be desired.

Player to Watch

Aly Khalifa, F, BYU - The Cougars have existed on depth and player rotation all season, with eight guys averaging 18.2 minutes or greater and only three topping 25.9 minutes nightly. Khalifa is on the low end at 19.5, but BYU doesn't have a replacement for his size or playmaking ability, as the 6-foot-11, 270 pounder averages 4.1 assists to go with his 5.9 points and 3.8 rebounds. He's a point forward in the truest sense, but he unfortunately suffered an ankle injury in the team's Big 12 Tournament loss to Texas Tech. I have no concerns on the Cougars first-round matchup, which perhaps I'm too confident on, but if Khalifa isn't able to play, I go from confident in a second weekend appearance to thinking this region is chalk city heading to the Sweet 16.

Sweet 16 Picks

No. 1 Connecticut - The Huskies likely shouldn't be thrilled with their overall draw, and they're going to get everyone's best shot with a clear target on their back. That said, they're so battle tested they should make quick work of their first two opponents. Under no circumstances will their opener be in question. I find FAU to be a scary second round matchup given pedigree, and Johnell Davis and Vladislav Goldin are matchup concerns; but they aren't a lock to advance into the second round. UConn gets elite and stabilizing play from Tristen Newton, and upside frontcourt play from Donovan Clingan. They're loaded and sail into the tournament's second weekend.

No. 2 Iowa State - First round opponent South Dakota State presents with no metrics to think the opening game will be close, also losing to two Big 12 opponents in November by 26 combined points. The second round game can be a trap, but if the Cyclones draw Washington State, it will be a slow, low-scoring game where they are comfortable. The Cougars will turn the ball over at a high rate, playing into Iowa State's strength and allowing the Cyclones to slug out a second win.

No. 4 Auburn - Yale is a scary first-round matchup, but athleticism and size will prevail for the Tigers to stave off an upset. In the second round, I don't think much of anything of San Diego State despite last season's Championship Game run. They're ripe for an upset against UAB, but even if the Aztecs advance, Auburn can play the defensive game and use its depth to stretch that matchup out to comfortable margins in the second half.

No. 6 BYU - The high-end options in this region make it very challenging to back a double-digit seed to win two games and advance to the second weekend. I'm not in love with the Cougars, but given the depth we've alluded to throughout the column, I think they can wear down an Illini side that plays its core three 31+ minutes nightly. 

Final Four Pick

No. 1 Connecticut - We noted above that Connecticut's only losses were on the road. The Huskies obviously aren't playing at home here, but their first two games are in Brooklyn, NY, coming off of winning the Big East in Manhattan, and the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 will be played in Boston, just 85 miles from the UConn's campus. It's not going to be an easy path if seeds hold, but that just means UConn will get better and bring it at a higher level with each passing game. When the do, they're truly unbeatable. The path to beating the Huskies is elite 3-point shooting. None of the likely opponents in this region rank higher than 111th in that category, making it a tall ask to take down the defending champs.