DFS College Basketball: Thursday Preview

DFS College Basketball: Thursday Preview

This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.

Today's college hoops slate is a small five-game pool on DraftKings, with FanDuel countering with a four-game slate. Four of the five games on DK have similar over/under totals, so there's not any games that stand out from a DFS perspective. That being said, KenPom is projecting Arizona State to score the most points of any team on the slate, so that's where we'll begin today's preview after a quick glance at the day's implied totals below.

Targets

Remy Martin, G, Arizona State ($7,800 DK)

The senior point guard was inconsistent early in the season but has found a nice rhythm over the past three games, scoring at least 28+ fantasy points in each contest (hitting 4x at this price in each of his last two. Since conference play started, Martin has the third-highest assist rate and sixth-highest usage rate (28.4 percent) in the Pac-12 among all qualified players. I'm expecting his success to continue in today's game as Cal currently has the second worst defense in the Pac-12 in terms of adjusted efficiency. The is the second time these two teams will play this season, and Remy scored 36.5 fantasy points in that first matchup back on Dec. 3. All in all, Remy seems like a safe bet with an incredibly high floor.

Jalen Wilson, F, Kansas ($5,800 DK, $5,800 FD)

Kansas scored 93 points when it played TCU back on Jan. 5, and there's not much reason to think the Jayhawks won't have a similar performance the second time around, considering TCU has the worst defensive efficiency in the Big 12 since conference play started. Wilson had a significant impact in the first game against TCU, posting 37 fantasy points in 35 minutes. Wilson's salary is lower than usual, mostly because he wasn't very productive in his team's recent three-game road trip. Kansas lost all three games, although the outcome is understandable when you factor the level of competition during the trip. Either way, Wilson is still seeing a fair amount of playing time and keeping a steady usage rate, so I'm expecting a bounce-back performance tonight. Seems like a ripe opportunity to take him while his salary is low.

Jordan Brown, F, Arizona ($5,500 DK, $5,900 FD)

Stanford usually has a stout defense but is missing at least three key players today, so we'll see if the Cardinal can keep it together against an Arizona team that boasts the 18th-best offense in the country in terms of adjusted efficiency. The other important note entering this game is that Arizona has a noticeable rebounding advantage over Stanford. Brown is the second-best rebounder for the Wildcats (after Tubelis) and also is used on 22 percent of possessions when on the court. Brown has a chance to provide great value assuming he can stay on the court and stay out of foul trouble.

Fades

Kevin Samuel, F, TCU ($6,300 DK, $7,000 FD)

The Horned Frogs haven't played a basketball game since Jan. 12 and now they they to travel to Lawrence, where a hungry Kansas team awaits them. Not an ideal situation to say the least. Kansas has the 18th best defense in the country in terms of adjusted efficiency, so I'm avoiding TCU today if possible. Samuel has a relatively low usage rate and only scored eight fantasy points back on Jan. 5 in the first contest against Kansas. It's reasonable to assume he might score a few more points in today's rematch, but I'm doubting it will be enough to cover his salary. 

Oscar da Silva, F, Stanford ($8,700 DK, $8,000 FD)

I'm avoiding da Silva tonight simply because of his salary and the matchup. Arizona's defense isn't the best in the Pac-12, but it's still solid, ranking No. 53 in the country in terms of adjusted efficiency. As mentioned earlier, Stanford is significantly shorthanded, so I'm thinking Arizona will do everything it can to stop da Silva and force other Cardinal players to beat them. Da Silva is talented and efficient, so he might prove me wrong here, but I'm counting on the Wildcats to swarm him any time he touches the ball. Today's salary is a season-high, so now seems like a good time to sell. We'll see if the Wildcats cooperate.

Grant Anticevich, F, Cal ($6,600 DK)

California has the second-worst offense in the Pac-12 in terms of adjusted efficiency, and its offense plays at the slowest pace in the conference. Not a great combination for fantasy points, and this also explains why Cal is expected to score the second-fewest points of any team on the slate. Given these notes, I'm avoiding Cal, and Anticevich in particular, because he's only used on 18.4 percent of possessions when on the court. Additionally, Anticevich tends to rely on his three-point shooting for fantasy scoring, so if his shots aren't falling, then he'll likely put up a dud.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Steve Peralta plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Buddusky, DraftKings: Buddusky24.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Steve Peralta
Graduated from USC in 2012 while interning for ESPN and FOX Sports. Following graduation, I started working full-time for FOX Sports and been there ever since. Been an avid fantasy player for over fifteen years. In addition to my fantasy teams, you'll also find me rooting for the USC Trojans and New York Yankees.
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