This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Several of the top teams in the country take the court on Wednesday's college hoops slate. Here are my picks for a few of the prominent matchups on tap.
Alabama 
at Georgia 
The Crimson Tide endured several rough losses during the non-conference season, but it's proving to once again be a legitimate NCAA tournament team. Alabama has played one of the hardest schedules in the country, the seventh-most difficult according to KenPom, so the six losses are certainly understandable. Either way, Alabama has the highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, but its defense still needs work, coming in at 67th in efficiency.
Georgia, meanwhile, started the season with a 2-3 record, but it has since found a nice rhythm, winning 12 of its last 15 games. The Bulldogs have demonstrated they are a consistent and competent group, avoiding losses to bad teams while also earning victories that don't come easy, such as defeating Wake Forest, winning at Florida State, and winning at South Carolina, to name a few.
In comparing these teams against each other, Georgia has an edge in a couple of key areas that could help them pull off the upset.
First, despite Alabama being the best offensive team in the country, it has one major issue that will likely bite it sooner or later. Turnovers. Since the conference season tipped off, Alabama has had the worst offensive turnover percentage in the SEC, welcome news for Georgia because the Bulldogs have the third-highest defensive turnover percentage in the conference during league play. Georgia also has an advantage in the same category going in the other direction, ranking 86th in offensive turnover percentage among all D1 teams, while Alabama ranks 260th on the defensive side.
Second, Georgia also has an advantage at the charity stripe. The Bulldogs have the highest offensive free-throw attempt rate in the SEC during league play, a useful trait because Alabama has had a problem with making contact, ranking 237th among all D1 teams in defensive free-throw attempt rate.
It won't be easy, but Georgia seems poised and ready for an upset. Alabama has lost six games and all but one of them came away from its home court. Also, if you like trends, I should note that Georgia has covered the spread in eight of its last 10 games according to Action Network. It might not win, but I'm betting the Bulldogs keep this one close. I'm taking the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Georgia +6
Northwestern 
at Purdue 
Northwestern brought back a substantial portion of last year's team that made the NCAA tournament, and it's paying off huge dividends. The Wildcats are currently in fourth place in the Big Ten standings, and they have already defeated several teams near the top such as Purdue, Michigan State, and Illinois.
Back when these two teams played each other on December 1st, I picked Northwestern in that game for one key reason. Turnovers. Not much has changed since that date that would cause me to flip my pick in this matchup, and in fact, the numbers have only solidified since that date. Northwestern now has the seventh-best offensive turnover percentage among all D1 teams, and this has held up through conference season, with the Wildcats ranking first in the Big Ten in that category. Similarly, Purdue ranks 322nd in defensive turnovers in the country and has the second-worst percentage in the Big Ten. The advantage works in Northwestern's favor on the other end of the court as well, as it has the second-best defensive turnover percentage in the Big Ten while Purdue ranks ninth in offensive turnovers.
This was the crux of my argument before the game in December, and the data still applies. Northwestern has now won its last two games against Purdue, and it dominated the turnover margin in both instances, posting a plus-14 turnover differential in December's game following a plus-seven turnover differential in last year's victory over Purdue.
Fading Purdue takes some extra fortitude, but it's taken plenty of losses against the spread just like any other team. According to Action Network, Purdue has failed to cover the spread in four of its last seven games. Considering the matchup and how it played out in each of the last two meetings between these teams, I'm taking the Wildcats in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Northwestern +13.5
St. John's 
at Xavier 
The Red Storm is coming off of an emphatic 20-point home victory against Villanova, a performance that was much needed following three straight losses. The Red Storm has played at a consistently high level for most of the season, although it did suffer home losses to Michigan and Boston College, so it's not immune from having a letdown performance.
Xavier, meanwhile, endured its worst game of the season the last time it was on the court, losing at UConn by a score of 99-56. While the game was ugly, the Musketeers are just one of many teams that UConn has embarrassed over the past couple of seasons, so we don't want to overreact. At the same time, Xavier's record now stands at 10-10, thanks in large part to its ridiculously hard schedule, the second-most difficult among all D1 teams according to KenPom. Through it all, the Musketeers sit at No. 41 on KenPom's overall efficiency chart with wins against Saint Mary's, Cincinnati, and at Providence, giving us a team that's still competitive despite not having a winning record.
Xavier has improved in two key areas that should help it defend home court on Wednesday.
First, the Musketeers have been much better at collecting boards over the past month, recording the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the Big East during conference play, a useful skill because St. John's had had trouble keeping opposing teams off the offensive glass, logging the second-worst defensive rebounding percentage in the same span. On the other end of the court, Xavier has also improved, ranking sixth in the Big East in defensive rebounding, an uptick in an area that was below average before conference season. The Red Storm, on the other hand, were among the best offensive-rebounding teams in the nation during the non-conference season, but its numbers have since come down, now ranked fourth in the Big East during conference play.
Xavier's other edge comes in the form of long-range shooting. Against league opponents, the Musketeers are making over 36 percent of their shots from behind the arc, the second-highest mark in the conference. In the same period, St. John's is making 30 percent of its three-point attempts, the second-lowest percentage in the Big East. Based on this low success rate, it's no surprise to see that St. John's has 60 percent of its total points come from two-pointers, the highest point distribution percentage in the conference. This plays right into Xavier's hands, as the Musketeers have a stout interior defense, holding opponents to 46 percent on shots inside the arc.
Xavier opened the conference season with a loss at St. John's, but I'm betting the rematch will have a different outcome. By and large, Xavier did not play like itself the first time these teams met. The Musketeers made just 4-of-21 shots from behind the arc in that game, easily their worst shooting performance of the season, so one can reasonably predict they'll make a few more of those at home this second time around. Xavier also committed 18 turnovers in the same game, again the worst mark of the season. St. John's may prove me wrong, but I'm betting that the Musketeers will play closer to their usual standards on Wednesday. I'm taking the Musketeers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier -1.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Georgia +6
- Northwestern +13
- Xavier -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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