This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
On Tuesday's college hoops slate, we're aiming for a trio of Big 12 battles. Here are my predictions for a few matchups featuring teams from arguably the toughest conference in the land.
BYU 
at Oklahoma
BYU enters Tuesday at ninth place on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, an impressive standing, although at the same time, Oklahoma isn't far behind at 25th. A deeper dive reveals the home team might have the upper hand when these teams clash Tuesday.
The first edge for Oklahoma comes in the form of turnovers. During conference play, Oklahoma has the sixth-best offensive turnover percentage in the Big 12, with BYU recording the worst defensive turnover percentage in the same span. On the other end of the court, the Cougars have had trouble maintaining possession of the ball against league opponents, ranking 11th in offensive turnover percentage among Big 12 teams, giving the Sooners a good chance of winning the turnover battle.
Another key factor working in Oklahoma's favor is its elite perimeter defense. BYU extensively relies on outside shooting for most of its scoring, as over 43 percent of its total points are from behind the arc, the second-highest percentage of points off three-pointers among all 362 D1 teams. This strategy has been incredibly successful for them thus far, but this plays right into the Sooners' hands, as they are holding opponents to 28 percent on shots from behind the arc, the fifth-lowest percentage allowed in the nation.
A third trait that should help Oklahoma is its physical assertiveness on offense. The Sooners have the highest free-throw attempt rate in the Big 12 since the conference season started, a fact that will likely come into play on Tuesday because BYU has had trouble guarding league opponents without fouling, ranking 11th in defensive free-throw attempt rate in the Big 12 during conference play. When they're on offense, the Cougars hardly drive with the ball, posting the second-lowest offensive free-throw attempt rate among all 362 D1 teams, giving us another key category that Oklahoma should win.
Overall, the Sooners appear well-equipped to defend BYU and protect their home court. I'm taking Oklahoma in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oklahoma -1
Iowa State 
at Texas 
Here we have a textbook case of strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness.
When Texas has the ball, its potent offense will go against one of the best defenses in the nation. Iowa State has the fifth-best defensive efficiency rating, and it impressively has the highest defensive turnover percentage among all 362 D1 teams. This is a useful skill in any matchup, and even more so on Tuesday, as Texas has had trouble taking care of the ball all season long. The Longhorns rank 203rd in offensive turnover percentage for the season, and this problem has only worsened in conference play, where the Longhorns are ninth in the league in this same category.
When Iowa State has the ball, it's facing a unit that has played at a similar level throughout the season. The Cyclones have the 49th-highest offensive efficiency rating in the country, eighth in the Big 12 during conference play, and it's going against a defense that ranks 60th in efficiency, tenth in the Big 12. The other various stats also paint a similar picture of this side of the court being a stalemate. That said, since the conference season started, Iowa State's offense still narrowly outranks Texas' defense in categories such as offensive rebounding, effective field goal percentage, and free-throw attempt rate.
It's tough to pick against a home team this time of year, but the host in question hasn't looked particularly sharp at home. In fact, Texas has lost three of its last four home games, seemingly disproving the notion of a home-court advantage. The recent loss to Houston was understandable, but dropping games to UCF, 77-71, and Texas Tech, 78-67, hardly inspire confidence. All things considered, I'm riding with the Cyclones in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Iowa State +2
Texas Tech 
at Baylor 
The Red Raiders are playing like the ideal 'over' team. They can score as well as any other team, posting the 13th-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, but they also have trouble stopping teams, ranking down at 86th on defense. The picture becomes clearer when focusing on more recent results, as Texas Tech has the highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big 12 and lowest defensive efficiency rating since the conference season tipped off. When the Red Raiders win, it's usually thanks to a high offensive output, and when they lose, it's usually due to a defensive letdown. Both situations often happen, as was the case in its last win at Oklahoma, 85-84.
Not to be outdone by their guests, the Bears' playing style and offensive nature also lead to higher-scoring games. They have the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation but are ranked down at 74th on defense. These rankings also match how they've played during the conference season, although not as skewed as Texas Tech. The Bears have the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating and are eighth on defense in league play.
When comparing these teams side-by-side, the biggest area that stands out is Baylor's massive advantage on the offensive glass. During conference play, the Bears are collecting offensive rebounds at the second-highest rate in the Big 12, while the Red Raiders are ranked last in the same category on defense. Baylor also has an edge on the glass in the other direction, making it more likely to win the rebounding battle on Tuesday.
It's tempting to simply ride the home team in this game, but ultimately I'd rather not fade Texas Tech's offensive attack. Instead, I'm betting the Red Raiders will trade baskets for most of the game, leading to a high-scoring outcome. I'm taking the over in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 145
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Oklahoma -1
- Iowa State +2
- Texas Tech at Baylor - Over 145
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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