On Wednesday's preview, I have my sights set on a trio of games featuring teams with high hopes of making a run in the NCAA Tournament. My six-day streak of profitable articles came to an end yesterday, which means it's time to start a new one. Here are my selections for Wednesday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Arkansas 
at Alabama 
It's not obvious at first glance, but over the past several weeks, Arkansas has been the superior team in this matchup at both ends of the court.
Since the conference season tipped off, Arkansas ranks higher than Alabama in both offensive efficiency (second vs. fourth) and defensive efficiency (third vs. sixth).
The Razorbacks have a powerful offense thanks to their second-to-none shot accuracy. Arkansas has made 60 percent of two-pointers against league opponents, the best mark in the SEC, and, on a related note, it also leads with its effective field goal percentage. It's safe to say that the Razorbacks will get a shot off on most possessions on Wednesday, as they rank third nationally in offensive turnover percentage while Alabama ranks third-worst nationally in defensive turnover percentage. The other concern, if you're Alabama, is that the Tide doesn't always box out, ranking 248th in defensive rebounding percentage.
As most college hoops fans know, it's hard to count Alabama out of any game with its potent offensive attack, although Arkansas' defense appears more than capable of getting the job done. During the SEC conference season, Arkansas ranks fourth or better in turnovers, free-throw attempt rate allowed, and a league-leading block percentage. Coincidentally, Alabama has the worst offensive block percentage in the conference.
With this matchup being close to equal on paper, I gotta take the points in this spot. I'm going with the Razorbacks.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arkansas +4.5
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Clemson 
at Wake Forest 
This matchup is a tale of two defenses.
We have one team with an elite defense, clearly the second-best in the ACC behind Duke, and, on the other hand, we have one of the worst defenses that the conference has to offer.
Clemson's defense ranks 15th nationally in adjusted efficiency and, during league play, second in the conference in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, and turnovers. It's also third in rebounding and is holding ACC opponents to a league-best 46 percent on shot attempts inside the arc. It's hard for any team to score on it, much less a Wake Forest offense that doesn't have many, if any, strong points. During the conference season, the Demon Deacons' offense ranks ninth or worse in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate.
Wake Forest's defense, meanwhile, has not performed well during the conference season, ranking among the bottom four ACC teams in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, and rebounding, where it sits dead last.
The Tigers have been inconsistent at times on offense, but they're still reliable in several key areas. During the ACC conference season, Clemson's offense ranks seventh or higher in effective field goal percentage, free-throw attempt rate, and two-point field goal percentage, with a 55 percent mark. The Tigers have also made 35 percent of shot attempts beyond the arc against league opponents, so they can also score from the perimeter when needed.
The bottom line is that Clemson is simply the better team. Winning on the road can sometimes be tricky, but I like our odds. I'm taking the Tigers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Clemson -3.5
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BYU 
at Arizona
This matchup features two of the top offensive teams in the nation, and both love to play as quickly as possible. BYU's offense ranks eighth in adjusted efficiency, and Arizona's ranks 11th; both rank among the top 30 teams in average possession length, giving us some of the essential ingredients for a high-scoring game.
BYU's defense is the obvious weak link in this matchup. During the Big 12 conference season, the Cougars' defense ranks 12th or worse in efficiency, turnovers, and free-throw attempt rate. It's also allowing Big 12 opponents to make 53 percent of shots inside the arc, 10th in the league. Arizona's offense has made a league-leading 55 percent of two-point attempts against conference opponents, so a soft frontcourt defense is the worst thing for an opposing team to have.
The Cougars' defense has routinely gotten torched in recent weeks, even in their victories. They allowed 94 points to Baylor (in a win), 99 points at Oklahoma State, 90 points at Kansas, and 86 points at home to Arizona when they hosted the Wildcats in late January in a three-point loss.
I would be remiss if I didn't acknowledge two critical injury notes, as Wednesday marks the first game for each team without significant players.
BYU lost Richie Saunders, a valuable guard who impacted the game in several ways, while Arizona temporarily lost Koa Peat, a freshman phenom who was second on the team in percentage of shots taken. Both teams still have several other talented players to help make up for the absences, but it's something to keep in mind.
Either way, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game in a matchup that is projected to have 73 possessions, per KenPom.
For these reasons, I'm on the Over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 165.5
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Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Arkansas +4.5
- Clemson -3.5
- BYU at Arizona - Over 165.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
