How do NBA teams erase 3-1 deficits to win postseason series? RotoWire.com, as part of our NBA betting trend analysis, sought to analyze the data and find out what those teams had in common.
We took a deep dive into statistical analysis of all seven times since 2000 that an NBA team has come back after trailing a playoff series three games to one. See our interactive graphic here, with our methodology below:
Methodology: Forget about those "We just took it one game at a time" soundbites. What does the hard data say about trends that customers using NBA betting apps can look for as a possible bellwether of a turnaround in a playoff series?
We plugged all the box scores from each game of each series (49 games in all) from the basketball-reference website into Claude to determine patterns. Then we used our own analysis to break down trends that happen when a team wins the final three games of a series to vanquish an opponent that got off to such a hot start. We used the Champs or Chumps website to spot series where a team came back from 3-1 down to win since 2000.
There are three statistical trends that stand out when a team rallies after being down 3-1 in a best-of-seven playoff series.
Trend 1: Losing Team's Ball Movement Collapses
The number of assists declined for the losing team in all 7 out of 7 series.
In total, losing teams averaged 3.0 fewer assists per game in Games 5 through 7 compared to Games 1-4. The most glaring example was the Golden State Warriors' well-known collapse to LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2016 NBA Finals.
That year, coach Steve Kerr's team saw their average assists fall from 24.8 in Games 1-4 to 19.7 in the final three games. That was a big reason the squad that won a record 73 games in the regular season could not close out the Cavs after leading 3-1.
Trend 2: Shooting Efficiency Improves
The comeback team's shooting efficiency improved in all 7 out of 7 series, while the losing team's numbers in this category declined in 6 of 7.
Using Effective Field Goal Percentage (or eFG%) as a barometer, we see that teams that came back from 3-1 series deficits saw their figures rise by an average of +.066 in Games 5-7. Conversely, opponents' eFG% dropped by -.062 on average.
The real trend: A squad staring down a 3-1 deficit suddenly hits shots, while their opponents miss more. This creates a massive net rating swing of more than 22 points per 100 possessions across those seven series.
Trend 3: Fourth-Quarter Scoring Surges
The comeback team's fourth-quarter scoring surged in 6 of 7 series, signaling composure and endurance down the stretch.
Teams that rally to win the final three games in a series outscore their opponents by 4.7 points on average in the fourth quarter. The 2016 Warriors leaped from 20.2 to 32.3 scoring average in the fourth quarter of Games 5-7 in the Western Conference final against Oklahoma City. Teams squandering a 3-1 lead saw their fourth quarter scoring dip on five out of seven occasions.
The decline in fourth-quarter scoring connects to Trend 1. Teams up 3-1 tend to stagnate offensively with slower possessions. Teams in 3-1 holes have little to lose offensively. One such example is Round 2 in 2020, when the Nuggets outscored the Clippers 40-15 in the fourth quarter of Game 6, then 33-18 in Game 7, as Denver rallied to advance.
How did these trends play out in each specific series? What other factors contributed to a series comeback? And can customers at sports betting sites spot these trends when they search for series futures odds value?
2003 1st Round: Detroit Pistons over Orlando Magic
The 2003 Pistons fell to the New Jersey Nets in the Eastern Conference final in a four-game sweep, but they did so after becoming the first team to come back from a 3-1 deficit in this century. Detroit shut down Orlando's high-flying offense in Games 5 through 7, limiting the Magic's offensive rating from 103.5 over the first four games to 94.1 in the latter three. The Pistons held the Magic to.407 eFG% in those final three games (down from .503 in Games 1-4). And guard Chauncey Billups went off offensively, from 15.5 points average in Games 1-4 to a staggering 30.7 ppg in Games 5-7. Orlando star Tracy McGrady's production dipped from 36.2 to 25.7 ppg.
2006 1st Round: Phoenix Suns over Los Angeles Lakers
The Suns, under coach Mike D'Antoni, ran over Kobe Bryant and the Lakers in the final three games. Phoenix had the largest offensive rating increase of any team surveyed for this story, from an anemic 103.6 to 127.1, while their eFG% went from .493 in Games 1-4 to .611 in Games 5-7. Their raw FG% jumped from .437 to .553. Boris Diaw went off for the Suns, going from 15.8 to 21.7 ppg and nearly doubled his assists from 4.2 to 8.3 apg. He also had fewer turnovers (from 3.0 to 1.3). Diaw's plus-minus jumped by 22 points, from -3.0 to +19.0, in that span.
2015 West Semis: Houston Rockets over Los Angeles Clippers
The final Rockets team led by head coach Kevin McHale ran over the Clippers in Games 5-7. Houston's turnover percentage went from 15.6% to 11.1% and the defense stepped up, holding the Clippers' eFG% to .469 in the final three games, down from .566 in the opening four. And Houston's rebounding was the stuff of legend, going from 44.8 to 52.7 per game. Josh Smith jumped from 5.3 ppg to 14.3 PPG off the bench (getting more varied production also helps teams erase series deficits).
2016 West final: Golden State Warriors over Oklahoma City Thunder
The 73-win Warriors were the fourth squad to emerge from a 3-1 deficit. Golden State's Q4 point production went from 20.2 on average to 32.3, the largest final-stanza swing of the seven series we surveyed. Thunder star Russell Westbrook was held in check late in the series, with his plus-minus dipping from +12.0 to -11.3 per game. Westbrook's field goal percentage fell from .420 to .368 and his turnovers per game rose from 4.0 to 5.0. Warriors forward Draymond Green's game score (via basketball-reference) rose from 7.9 in Games 1-4 to 12.0. Golden State's defense coalesced around him, with OKC's offensive rating plummeting from 110.6 to 104.4. The Warriors had the tables turned on them in the next round…
2016 Finals: Cleveland Cavaliers over Golden State Warriors
LeBron James had a historic performance, as his scoring spiked from 24.8 ppg in the first four games to 36.3 ppg in Games 5-7. His Game Score average surged from 20.2 to 34.9. The Warriors' average offensive rating dropped from 113.7 to 100.8 and their eFG% dipped from .543 to .471 during that span. Warriors forward Harrison Barnes virtually disappeared on both ends of the floor. In Games 5-7, Barnes had 5.0 ppg (down from 12.5 in Games 1-4) and a -0.4 Game Score (vs. 10.5). Kyrie Irving came of age for Cleveland, with a TS% that surged from .492 to .632 and scoring that jumped from 25.0 to 30.0 ppg. These elements helped James win his first title with his hometown team after he captured consecutive titles with the Miami Heat in 2012 and 2013.
2020 1st Round: Denver Nuggets over Utah Jazz
The 2023 NBA champions learned about playoff mettle three years before that. In 2020, Denver hampered Utah's offense late in their first-round series, as the Jazz's offensive rating fell from 134.4 in Games 1-4 to 106.1 in Games 5-7. Utah's scoring dropped from 125.5 to 97.3 ppg. Donovan Mitchell's scoring fell from 39.5 to 32.0 ppg and his turnover average rose from 3.0 to 5.7. Add in Mike Conley's equally absent contributions (going from 26.5 to 15.3 ppg and .902 to .521 TS%) and you have a snapshot of why Utah fumbled a 3-1 series lead. For Denver, Jamal Murray jumped from 28.0 ppg to a staggering 36.3 average. He and Nikola Jocic led the Nuggets to rally from 3-1 down. In the next round, they did it again.
2020 West Semis: Denver Nuggets over Los Angeles Clippers
Jocic and company pulled off the NBA's seventh (and most recent) 3-1 series comeback since 2000. In Games 1-4, the Clippers outscored the Nuggets in the first half by an average of six points. In Games 5-7, Denver owned the second half – by 18, 29 and 17 points, respectively. Murray's progress in the previous round was a prelude to his greatness against the Clippers. His scoring rose from 17.8 to 29.0 ppg and FG% increased from .382 to .516 late in the series. Games 5-7 brought out the worst for L.A.'s two stars, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard's plus-minus average went from +5.2 to -11.3 and George's fell further, from +7.5 to -15.3. Much of that stemmed from both shooting poorly in Game 7, when Leonard hit 6-for-22 and George 4-of-16. Veterans such as Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell could not pick up the slack.
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