This article is part of our Advanced Stats Analysis series.
Injury Breakdown by Jeff
The top of most draft boards don't look as clear after it was revealed Kevin Durant will miss an extended period of time with a foot injury. Once the consensus No. 1 overall pick, Durant's value is now dependent on how a notoriously tricky injury reacts over the next several weeks.
Durant's fracture is to the fifth metatarsal. The metatarsals are the long bones of the foot that bridge the bones of the midfoot to the bones of the toe. The fifth metatarsal is located on the outside of the foot and is commonly fractured in the NBA.
For metatarsal fractures, it is all about determining the location of the fracture and the mechanism of injury. The type of fracture sustained by Durant is one of most serious of the various kinds of metatarsal fractures, a Jones fracture. It occurs when the fracture is located near the base of the 5th metatarsal.
What makes this injury so tricky is the amount of available blood. The area is very poorly vascularized causing fractures to take a longer amount of time to heal. Additionally, Jones fractures often fail to unite without surgical intervention or experience a delayed union.
For Durant the exact mechanism of injury has not been made public. Jones fractures can occur following a specific incident or they can develop slowly over time and be classified as a stress fracture. If it is indeed a stress fracture, additional steps may be required to determine if there
Injury Breakdown by Jeff
The top of most draft boards don't look as clear after it was revealed Kevin Durant will miss an extended period of time with a foot injury. Once the consensus No. 1 overall pick, Durant's value is now dependent on how a notoriously tricky injury reacts over the next several weeks.
Durant's fracture is to the fifth metatarsal. The metatarsals are the long bones of the foot that bridge the bones of the midfoot to the bones of the toe. The fifth metatarsal is located on the outside of the foot and is commonly fractured in the NBA.
For metatarsal fractures, it is all about determining the location of the fracture and the mechanism of injury. The type of fracture sustained by Durant is one of most serious of the various kinds of metatarsal fractures, a Jones fracture. It occurs when the fracture is located near the base of the 5th metatarsal.
What makes this injury so tricky is the amount of available blood. The area is very poorly vascularized causing fractures to take a longer amount of time to heal. Additionally, Jones fractures often fail to unite without surgical intervention or experience a delayed union.
For Durant the exact mechanism of injury has not been made public. Jones fractures can occur following a specific incident or they can develop slowly over time and be classified as a stress fracture. If it is indeed a stress fracture, additional steps may be required to determine if there is an underlying factor for the fracture's occurrence. For example, Nets center Brook Lopez has battled fifth metatarsal fractures for the past few seasons and finally underwent a procedure known as an osetotomy. In this surgery, Lopez's first metatarsal was literally cut and reshaped to help divert stress away from the fifth.
Gauging Durant's value can get even murkier when you consider how easily complications can occur. The risk for re-injury is particularly high, and even surgery won't guarantee anything. Hardware failure is a common occurrence and additional surgery could be needed down the road. Multiple players including Lopez, Glen Davis, Roddy Beaubois, and CJ McCollum have suffered a reoccurrence of the injury and required additional treatment.
Ranking Impact From Marc
As with most fantasy basketball questions the impact of this injury on Durant's value depends on the type of league you play in, Rotisserie or Head-to-Head. We'll first examine the impact to his rotisserie value.
Rotisserie Leagues
Below is RotoWire's 2014-15 season projection for Durant, prior to his injury:
Player | Gs | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Pts | TOV | Rank | Auction |
Kevin Durant | 81 | 38.5 | 50.1% | 88.5% | 2.1 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 28.4 | 3.4 | 1 | $81 |
If there were a championship wrestling belt for being the best fantasy player in the world, it would live at Kevin Durant's house. His contributions in three-pointers and points scored are unmatched, and he gives fantasy owners above replacement level production in every category other than turnovers. Before his injury, his projection was worth $81 in an auction, an unbelieveable $15 dollars more than Anthony Davis, whose projection ranked 2nd.
Part of the reason that Durant is so valuable is that, historically, he has been very durable. Durant has missed only two games in the past three seasons. Prior to his injury, he had missed only two games in the past three seasons, and we projected him to miss only one game this season.
While we don't know exactly how long Durant will be out, early estimates for missed time have been in the six-to-eight weeks range. If he misses only six weeks, that will equate to 16 missed games, and if he misses eight weeks, he will miss 20 games. Here is how he would rank in both scenarios.
Misses 16 games
Player | Gs | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3s | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Pts | TOV | Rank | Auction |
Kevin Durant | 65 | 38.5 | 50.1% | 88.5% | 2.1 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 28.4 | 3.4 | 4 | $63 |
In this scenario, Durrant loses $18 dollars of auction value and drops to 3rd in the rankings, just ahead of James Harden whose projection is worth $59. He would rank below only Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Stephen Curry in this scenario.
Misses 20 games
Player | Gs | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3s | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Pts | TOV | Rank | Auction |
Kevin Durant | 61 | 38.5 | 50.1% | 88.5% | 2.1 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 28.4 | 3.4 | 5 | $56 |
Durant drops another $7 in value in this scenario, and drops another spot in the rankings to 5th, right below James Harden. Even with 20 less games, Durant will still be worth a top-5 pick, as long as he is able to produce at his normal level once he returns.
In fact, Durant will still be worth a first-round pick as long as he misses less than 30 games in total, at which point his projection would be ranked 13th overall in our rankings. This is a testament to what an amazing fantasy player he is, as no other player in any sport could miss close to 40% of their season and still be worth a first-round pick.
Head-to-Head Leagues
Durant is not quite as valuable in our head-to-head rankings, where we put less of an emphasis on the percentages. He was still our number one player in this format prior to his injury. Decreasing his projection by 20 games in this format drops his ranking from No. 1 overall, worth $68, to 16th overall, worth $37.
However, one of the main differences between head-to-head and rotisserie leagues is that most head-to-head leagues have a playoff at the end of the season which makes those games more valuable than games at the beginning of the season, as long as your team makes the playoffs.
As a result, if you believe Durant will be functioning at his full capacity after his injury, and you feel like you can survive your first few matchups of the season without him, he could end up being a steal at the end of the first round in your head-to-head league draft.
Do you have an opinion about Durant or his injury that you'd like to share? Would you like to know how he would rank at a different level of games played? Please leave a comment below, or contact me on twitter @MarcFRoberts.
