We're set for a two-game NBA Cup Semifinals slate Saturday, one that could feature a couple of wire-to-wire affairs given the stakes at play. The day also marks the return of two prominent big men from injury, as both Victor Wembanyama and Isaiah Hartenstein are projected to play following multi-game absences.
Slate Overview
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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, Dec. 13 @12:15 p.m. ET:
New York Knicks (-5) vs. Orlando Magic (O/U: 224.5)
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (-10.5) (O/U: 232.5)
The betting outlook is a mixed bag Saturday for the pair of neutral-site clashes, as we have the Thunder in their usual position as double-digit favorites and a lowish projected total in the Knicks-Magic battle. Nevertheless, with Wemby returning for San Antonio, that Western Conference battle could play a lot closer than expected, while the Knicks' defensive inconsistencies in particular could also lead to a highly competitive matchup in the matinee.
Injury Situations to Monitor
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Victor Wembanyama, SAN (calf): PROBABLE
With Wembanyama due for a return, Luke Kornet will slide back into a bench role, while the rest of the first unit's usage will take a hit. However, the big man could be in for some sort of minutes restriction that prevents him from getting past 30 minutes.
Franz Wagner, ORL (ankle): OUT
In Wagner's ongoing absence, Desmond Bane and Paolo Banchero should be among the biggest beneficiaries in terms of increased usage, while Anthony Black is likely to remain in the starting five.
Elite Players
We have two players with five-figure salaries on Saturday's slate – Victor Wembanyama ($11,700) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,700).
As just alluded to Wembanyama may see some sort of limitation on his playing time, but he's likely to still play in the 25-to-27-minute range at minimum. However, whether that will be enough to justify his salary in such a tough matchup remains to be seen.
SGA is rolling right along his attempt at a second consecutive MVP, averaging 52.6 FD points per contest and typically sporting a floor in the low 40s in terms of fantasy points. He's also been at his most productive on the road, making him all the more appealing Saturday.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK ($9,000)
Towns is averaging 42.9 FD points over his last eight games and plays a premium position, which should make him very popular on the small slate.
Jalen Brunson, NYK ($8,900)
Brunson has been excellent against the Magic in three prior meetings and has over 41 FD points in four straight, which should put him in plenty of lineups.
Jalen Williams, OKC ($8,400)
Williams has already eclipsed 40 FD points twice in his first six games and been over 34 in all but one overall, which should make him highly rostered at his salary.
Chet Holmgren, OKC ($7,900)
Holmgren has eclipsed 41 FD points in three of his last five games, and he should remain very popular despite Hartenstein's return to the frontcourt Saturday.
Desmond Bane, OKC ($7,700)
Bane is taking on a much bigger role with Franz Wagner sidelined and just erupted for 53.7 FD points against the Heat in the quarterfinal game, so he should be very highly rostered at his salary.
Key Values
Anthony Black, ORL vs. NYK ($6,300)
As mentioned earlier, Black should remain in the starting five Saturday with Wagner out, a scenario where the former is averaging 39.3 FD points per 36 minutes. The third-year guard delivered 28.1 FD points against the Heat in a starting opportunity Tuesday, and he's averaging 32.1 FD points in his last 12 games overall, a stretch where his ability to fill the stat sheet has helped overcome his 43.8 percent shooting in the sample. The Knicks have conceded 29.2 and 32.2 FD points to Black in his last two encounters with them, and New York also checks in allowing 47.2 percent shooting outside of MSG this season, which should help Black's quest for better efficiency.
Wendell Carter, ORL vs. NYK ($5,400)
Carter is another member of the Magic that could overdeliver on salary in Wagner's absence, considering he's averaging 33.7 FD points per 36 minutes with his teammate off the floor. Carter is averaging a solid 27.2 FD points over his last 11 games overall, a sample where he's shot 50.6 percent, including 37.5 percent from behind the arc. The versatile big man has delivered over a 5x return on his current salary in 11 of 24 games this season and come within less than a fantasy point of doing so on two additional occasions, putting him in consideration in the high-stakes environment Saturday.
Keldon Johnson, SAN at OKC ($4,800)
Johnson could offer some sneaky value in Saturday's nightcap, even when factoring in the return of Wembanyama. Johnson checks in on an extended stretch of productive play, as he's averaging 28.1 FD points on the strength of 15.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists per contest, as well as blistering 59.5 percent shooting. Wemby's return shouldn't affect Johnson's role in the rotation much considering his second-unit slotting, meaning he should still figure in for mid-20s minutes at minimum. The Thunder naturally present an unenviable defensive matchup all the way around, but Johnson is shooting 60.9 percent over 13 road games this season and notably posted tallies of 23.4 and 34 FD points in two of three games against OKC last season.
ALSO CONSIDER: Mitchell Robinson, NYK vs. ORL ($4,100)
