FanDuel NBA: Thursday Value Plays

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Published on March 10, 2022

After Wednesday's monster, 12-game slate, we have much smaller schedule Thursday, and it features games that could well be previews of postseason action.

SLATE OVERVIEW

PHI (-4.5) vs. BKN O/U: 229.5

GSW (-1.5) @ DEN O/U: 220.5

Small slates like these will often result in ties atop the major GPP tournaments, so the best advice is to look at Thursday's slate as a cash game-oriented bankroll builder. Taking some shots in single-entry contests is also fine. More than ever, small slates like this hinge on a couple of major decisions that can make or break your slate. I'll discuss this further when we get to Andre Drummond later in the article.

INJURIES

BKN LaMarcus Aldridge (hip) - OUT

One very obvious pivot emerges in this spot, and we'll cover it in a moment.

GSW Otto Porter (illness) - OUT

GSW Gary Payton (knee) - OUT

Juan Toscano-Anderson ($4,000) and Nemanja Bjelica ($3,600) continue to be the pivots for these absences.

DEN Will Barton (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

DEN Bones Hyland (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

DEN Jeff Green (personal) - QUESTIONABLE

Austin Rivers ($4,000) and JaMychal Green ($4,400) are the top candidates for increased production with Barton, Hyland and Green remain out on the second half of the B2B.

ELITE PLAYERS

You won't see any surprises here at the top, as the top salaries go to the two best centers on the slate, Nikola Jokic ($11,400) and Joel Embiid ($10,800). I will be splitting my exposure between one elite and a more budget-minded play, and I definitely prefer Embiid over Jokic despite the Warriors' issues in the paint. The matchup for Jokic is strong, however.

Kevin Durant ($10,400) and James Harden ($10,200) come in just behind the big men This game will be the first time Harden has met the Nets in a Philly uniform, so there's sure to be some fireworks. Many of my lineups will feature at least one of these spend-up players.

Two elites I am on the fence about are Kyrie Irving ($9,700) and Stephen Curry ($9,300). On one hand, Irving has recently shown the ability to take over a game and limit Kevin Durant's production -- and I have to admit I am looking forward to watching I'm square off against Harden, who isn't exactly known for this defensive ability.

However, it may be Tyrese Maxey who is tasked with covering Irving, and I'm less enthusiastic about that matchup. As for Curry, shot volatility is always the issue, but his listed salary is nearing all-time lows, and it may be quite difficult to avoid him entirely.

I realize I've mentioned everyone in the elite category, so I'll rank them in order of preference:

Embiid
Harden
Irving
Jokic
Durant

EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS

Tyrese Maxey, PHI ($7,300) vs. BKN

I like Maxey's salary alongside his dual eligibility at both guard slots. Since returning to action, Maxey has exceeded 30 minutes of court time in every game, and his placement alongside James Harden has only seemed to help his overall production. Maxey has a baseline of about 38 FP to reach 5x value at this salary, a number he's eclipsed four times over the past seven games.

Klay Thompson, GSW ($5,700) @ DEN

It's hard to set Thompson aside at this salary point. There's ample cause for the discount, as Thompson tends to show volatility with his shotmaking. He put together a value-beating number in his most recent game, and although I'd restrict him to tournaments, his salary shows some value.

Andre Drummond, BKN ($5,600) @ PHI

In my opinion, Drummond's mere presence in the player pool provides us with a difficult quandary due to our roster limitations at center. By going Drummond's way, you're effectively excising the potentially explosive numbers of Embiid and Jokic, and virtually locking yourself into spending up at guard. There's also the issue of Drummond stacking up against Embiid. Drummond is kind of a 'crossroads' player on this slate because rostering him dictates the rest of your build severely. While the salary for such a productive guy absolutely crushes value, we have to consider where the floor will be for Embiid/Jokic and determine if it's better to guarantee production and limit our elite guard allotment. Or, we elect to go with Drummond and spend on the guards. While it's purely an instinct, I'm inclined to favor the former, but it's important to mention Drummond for those who want to take the other avenue.

Monte Morris, DEN ($5,400) vs. GSW

He's not the first name you think of when looking at the four teams, but one look at Morris' recent numbers reveals a treasure of value. Morris has put up 33 or more FP in three consecutive games, which is quite a feat for a player at this salary point. One of those games was a 37.5 FDFP performance against the Warriors, which makes for a very valuable recent metric to rely on.

Jonathan Kuminga, GSW ($5,100) @ DEN

I expect to have a lot of Kuminga in my builds. as long as Draymond Green is out, Steve Kerr will keep giving Kuminga all the minutes he can handle, and he's taken full advantage of the opportunity. He blew the ceiling off his floor with a team-leading 37 FP in his last game, and while it's unreasonable to expect a repeat performance like this, he only needs to cross the 20-FP threshold to hit 5x value. He has the potential for much more than that.

Also consider: Aaron Gordon, DEN ($5,000) vs. GSW

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.