MJ Melendez

At best, you could say Melendez stagnated from his first to second season. At worst, you could say he slipped a bit, as a drop in OPS+ from 99 to 95 and a rise in strikeout rate from 24.5 percent to 28.2 percent can attest. If you're looking for a silver lining, it's that Melendez still hit the ball very hard when he made contact, boasting an average exit velocity in the 96th percentile and a barrel rate in the 75th percentile. He's also a flyball hitter and a pull hitter, things that, when combined with his quality of contact, make it curious as to how his home run total dropped. There could still be some untapped potential with Melendez, and he did finish with an .861 OPS and eight homers over the final two months. The team and ballpark context are poor, though, and he's losing catcher eligibility.

Melendez gets a passing grade, offensively. As a 23-year-old rookie, he popped 18 home runs and drew 66 walks in 534 plate appearances, putting him roughly league average by wRC+. It's defensively where the questions come up. Melendez struggled behind the plate both defensively (-18 DRS) and with pitch framing. Salvador Perez is still locked in as the near-everyday catcher when healthy, so Melendez will likely see most of his time in the outfield to begin 2023. He's not a finished product with the bat, but the 2021 minor-league home run leader clears the bar in two-catcher leagues. The defensive questions leave open some playing-time downside, but the rebuilding Royals would be wise to live with his limitations and hand Melendez 500-plus PA again to evaluate his progress against big-league pitching.

Melendez bounced back from a horrific showing at High-A in 2019 (39.4 K%) to lead the minors with 41 home runs while hitting .288/.386/.625 in 123 games at Double-A and Triple-A. He had a great 39.2 Hard% along with a 14.1 BB% and a 21.7 K%. Melendez always had plus raw power, but he overhauled his swing and stance, which was the cause of his surprise resurgence. With Salvador Perez locked in as the Royals' primary catcher, Melendez is expected to get work at third base and the corner outfield spots at Triple-A, where his 70-grade arm could still add value. Kansas City has a lot of hitters vying for playing time at those positions and designated hitter this upcoming season, so it's unclear when he will be given a look as an everyday player in the majors. His power should translate whenever he gets his shot, and he should eventually make enough contact to hit for a passable batting average. The key to his long-term fantasy value will be for him to get enough starts at catcher to retain that eligibility, which could lead to him being one of the leaders in plate appearances for catcher-eligible players, assuming he is playing other positions when he is not catching.

One of the most athletic high-end catching prospects in recent memory, Melendez has plus power and should be able to stick behind the plate. He sells out for home runs at times (30.3 K%), but was still 28 percent better than the average Sally League hitter as a 19-year-old. His .241 ISO and 19 home runs ranked fourth and fifth in the league, respectively. Not only is that level of production rare for teenage catchers at Low-A, but catchers that age are very rarely even assigned to a full-season league. While he hit more balls to the opposite field (28.2%) than he did in the AZL in 2017 (22.2%), it still seems unlikely that Melendez will ever hit much better than .250 as he climbs the ladder, though that hardly excludes him from being a top fantasy catcher. He has plenty of time to improve as a receiver, and his plus arm, athleticism and ability to speak fluent English and Spanish are big marks in his favor. Look for him to debut in 2021 or 2022.