Brett Baty

The 23-year old Baty had a tale of two seasons in that he absolutely raked in Triple-A Syracuse but struggled at the big league level. Baty had a .298/.388/.625 line in 121 plate appearances with Syracuse to force his way to the big league roster, but finished the season in Queens with a .212/.275/.323 line as other rookies around the league flourished. Baty handles fastballs well last season with a .283 xBA and six of his nine homers coming off the pitch, but a .151 xBA against breaking balls and a .239 xBA against offspeed pitches did him in as he saw those pitches 44% of the time from opposing pitchers. Facing lefties was mostly a mystery for him as he hit .176 with 29 strikeouts in 91 at bats while doing what damage he did against righties. Baty has the upside to be a better fantasy contributor than what he has shown thus far, but he will have to show that before he gets moved to the top half of the lineup. He is currently a liability at a position demanding production.

Baty has long been an exit velocity darling and registered a 113 mph max EV (89th percentile) in just 31 MLB events during a brief cup of coffee after posting an elite 36.1 Hard% in the minors. His 24.8 K% at Double-A and Triple-A was fine for a 22-year-old slugger who also walked at an 11.7% clip. Hitting the ball hard and controlling the strike zone are major parts of the success equation for a 6-foot-3, 210-pound lefty slugger. The big question is whether he can get the ball in the air enough to maximize his power. When factoring in context, easily his best run as a pro was the 89 games he played last year at Double-A (160 wRC+), but that was also the only time he has logged a groundball rate below 51% (42.6%) above rookie ball. That run at Double-A accounted for 84% of his season, so we shouldn't read too much into his groundball rate spiking again at Triple-A and the majors, but it's undoubtedly the biggest stat to track with Baty in 2023. He tore a ligament in his right thumb at the end of August but should be ready for spring training. Eduardo Escobar is the incumbent at the hot corner, but between designated hitter (for Baty and Daniel Vogelbach) and second base (for Escobar and Luis Guillorme), there should be regular playing time available if he performs.

Baty can hit the ball really hard, but he also strikes out a lot and has logged terrible groundball rates in pro ball. He had a 51.6 GB% at High-A and a 61.2 GB% at Double-A. His run in the Arizona Fall League generated buzz after registering an elite maximum exit velocity, but he still wasn't driving the ball over the fence, hitting one home run with a .405 SLG and a 30.4 K% in 25 games. A 6-foot-3, 210-pound left-handed hitter, Baty has improved enough defensively that he should be able to stick at third base long term. He is talented, and if he changes his launch angle, he could be quite valuable, especially in OBP leagues. However, with Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus each ranking him as a top-40 overall prospect this offseason, this may be the perfect time to sell high in dynasty leagues.

The main development for Baty last season was that he reported to the alternate training site in August in the best shape he has been in since the Mets drafted him with the No. 12 overall pick in 2019. Listed at 6-foot-3, 210 pounds when he was drafted, Baty was not unathletic, but he had a bit of a doughy physique. He is reportedly more toned, and monster all-fields power is still his calling card. He is not unlike Nolan Jones, in that he is much more valuable in OBP leagues than AVG leagues as he works long at-bats, which leads to an abundance of walks and strikeouts. That patient approach was evident during the fall instructional league. Baty turned 21 in November and was one of the oldest prep players from his class. He may head to Low-A initially, but given his age, the Mets will likely look to push him up to High-A in fairly short order. Baty will continue to be developed as a third baseman for now.

Seen as one of the best offensive-minded players from the high school ranks, Baty was selected by the Mets with the 12th-overall pick. He hit just .234 across stops in the Gulf Coast, Appalachian and New York-Penn leagues, but thanks to a 15.4 BB%, he had a .368 OBP in his pro debut. The early returns suggest he may be a three-true-outcomes slugger (28.5 K%), so he should be slightly downgraded in batting average leagues. Baty, who hits left-handed and throws right-handed, has monster raw power to all fields that he has no trouble getting to in games. He was old for his class and turned 20 this offseason, so he won't get the benefit of the doubt if he struggles in his full-season debut. Defensively, there are concerns that he might outgrow third base -- he is already 6-foot-3, 210 pounds -- but he has the arm and hands for the position.