This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We have another three-game slate on tap Friday, with three pivotal Game 3 matchups unfolding. The Knicks-Hawks series looks like it could be one of the best of the opening round and should feature another tightly contested affair where key players play heavy minutes. Meanwhile, the Clippers will surely be in desperation mode against the Mavericks. There's more of a blowout risk in the middle game, especially if Kemba Walker is forced to sit out for the Celtics, who are already down 2-0 in the series.
Slate Overview
Here's a closer look at the three games:
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks (Projected total: 211.5 points)
The first two contests this series have finished with totals of 212 and 193 points, so the modest total here is unsurprising. The fact the game is in Atlanta does raise offensive expectations a bit, but it's worth noting New York was actually a more effective defense on the road (104.3 PPG) this season. However, the Hawks scored an elevated 115.4 points per home game and should have a raucous crowd behind them, and there's always the possibility a game between evenly matched clubs could go into overtime.
Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics (Projected total: 226.5 points)
The Nets were held to 104 points in Game 1, but exploded for 130 in Game 2 and naturally have the players to replicate the second tally anytime they take the floor. The Celtics could be down Kemba Walker on Friday and have only managed 93 and 108 points in the first two outings, but they will be at TD Garden where they averaged an impressive 114.2 points per game this season. The Nets scored 119.3 points per road game and allowed 116.8 per away contest, so Boston is in line for improved offensive production.
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks (Projected total: 219.5 points)
The Mavericks have beaten the Clippers with both offense and defense so far, which have finished with drastically different totals of 216 and 248 points. LA was much better on the attack in Game 2 and averaged a solid 112.1 points per road game during the regular season, while the Mavericks put up 111.1 on their home floor. However, both sides were stingy on defense in the home/road splits that apply tonight – the Clips only gave up 107.8 points per road game and the Mavs allowed 110.8 points per home contest – so the total appears to partly factor into those figures.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Kemba Walker, BOS (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Walker were forced to sit out with his left knee bone bruise, Jayson Tatum would see even higher usage than usual while Payton Pritchard and Tremont Waters would likely be the most direct beneficiaries.
Other notable injuries:
Maxi Kleber, DAL (Achilles)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Serge Ibaka, LAC (back)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Jeff Green, BKN (foot)/ Status: OUT
Elite Players
We have four players with five-figure salaries on Friday's slate – James Harden ($10,800), Luka Doncic ($10,500), Kevin Durant ($10,400) and Kawhi Leonard ($10,000).
Harden posted 37.5 FD points in Game 2 after exceeding 50 in the opener while game script could lead to him playing under 30 minutes again if Brooklyn runs away with things, so there is some risk at his salary.
Doncic appears much more likely to take on a massive workload in a contest that could be a wire-to-wire battle, and he's already shook off the Clippers normally stout defense for FD-point totals of 65.5 and 56.9 FD points in the first two.
Durant has produced 49.9 and 54.1 FD points in the first two games of the series, the latter figure coming over 29 minutes. Therefore, due to his heavy offensive involvement, he seems a bit more immune from blowout risk than Harden.
Finally, Leonard has proven every bit worthy of his current salary in the first two against Dallas by accumulating 57.5 and 58.2 FD points in those contests. With the Clippers in desperation mode, he should be as heavily involved tonight.
Healthy players with salaries in the high four figures capable of also delivering elite scores include Jayson Tatum ($9,800), Julius Randle ($9,400), Trae Young ($9,000) and Kyrie Irving ($8,800). Tatum could see even higher usage than usual with Walker potentially out, while Randle and Young are likely to log extremely heavy workloads in what should be another tight game. Irving does carry some risk due to the possibility of a big Brooklyn lead in the second half, but he should also be featured in his much-heralded return to Boston.
Expected Chalk
In addition to the players just mentioned in the prior section, other likely chalk plays include:
Paul George, LAC ($8,800)
Much like Leonard, George should be very heavily involved in Game 3 and just posted 52.4 FD points.
Clint Capela, ATL ($8,300)
Capela has yet to really get going on the offensive end, but has been strong on the boards and posted 30.6 and 35.4 FD points in the first two games.
Derrick Rose, NYK ($6,500)
I will discuss Rose further in the next section, but it's worth noting he's seeing a significant role off the bench in the first two outings as one of Tom Thibodeau's most trusted veterans in the high-pressure postseason environment.
Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL ($7,600)
Bogdanovic has carried over his hot hand from the regular season by scoring 30.8 and 35.7 FD points in the first two contests.
Key Values
Derrick Rose, NY at ATL ($6,500)
As just mentioned, Rose has enjoyed a secure and robust role thus far in the series by logging 38 and 39 minutes in Games 1 and 2. He's parlayed those robust workloads into tallies of 31.5 and 35.8 FD points, which has led to a slight bump in salary. However, Rose remains worth the investment Friday, especially considering he's averaged 18.5 shot attempts during those contests. Rose's case is enhanced by the fact Atlanta is ranked in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency allowed to both second-unit (23.0 percent) and backcourt players (50.0 percent).
Tim Hardaway, DAL vs. LAC ($5,700)
Hardaway's salary remains well below $6K despite the fact he just hung 37.7 FD points on the Clippers in Game 2 after posting a solid 24.3 in the opener. A rather notoriously streaky shooter, it's also worth noting Hardaway has been incandescently hot over the first two by draining 63.0 percent of his shots, including an even more impressive 64.7 percent from distance. The Clippers' overall defensive metrics and those against shooting guards in particular all run counter to the success he's having, but there's no reason to move away from a player at this salary who's performing as well as he has - especially when also locked into a starting role.
Alec Burks, NY at ATL ($5,500)
Burks is another player who can rack up fantasy production in a hurry via the three-point shot and whose salary could easily be outpaced tonight. The veteran struggled a bit from the field in Game 2 on his way to 22.6 FD points, but flashed his ceiling in Game 1 with a 27-point effort that produced 35.6 FD points - his third tally of more than 30 FD points in his last five going back to the end of the regular season. Burks is shooting an excellent 51.5 percent - including 47.1 percent from three-point range - during that span while averaging 32.1 FD points per contest. The Hawks' vulnerabilities against both bench players and backcourts were already detailed in Rose's entry, and Burks should therefore be positioned for a potentially rewarding night.
