Last weekend, I asked the RotoWire staff for their favorite sleepers and busts for this season. Throughout this week, I'll share our team's picks across a series of four articles. After covering hitter sleepers Tuesday and pitcher sleepers yesterday, today we'll move onto hitter busts.
The players are listed in order of their ADP in the RotoWire Online Championship. I've included each writer's explanation for their pick from their response to my email, as well as a link to their writer page here at RotoWire so you can check out all of their work.
Intro by Erik Halterman
Fantasy Baseball Busts: Hitters
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays (ADP 16)
He looks like he should hit 20-25 homers. Last year he hit 45. I don't see him coming close to that this season. The Rays are going back to Tropicana Field, which should result in a decrease, and Caminero is something of a groundball hitter. Hitters who hit so many balls on the ground typically don't put that many in the seats. — Brad Johnson
Cal Raleigh, C, Mariners (ADP 18)
Wise fantasy managers know not to buy into outlier seasons. Raleigh is a pure power hitter, but
his 60 home runs last year were nearly as many as he had in the 2023 and 2024 seasons
combined. A regression there, when combined with a low batting average and limited stolen
base production, makes Raleigh notably overpriced at his ADP. — KC Joyner
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs (ADP 32)
Last weekend, I asked the RotoWire staff for their favorite sleepers and busts for this season. Throughout this week, I'll share our team's picks across a series of four articles. After covering hitter sleepers Tuesday and pitcher sleepers yesterday, today we'll move onto hitter busts.
The players are listed in order of their ADP in the RotoWire Online Championship. I've included each writer's explanation for their pick from their response to my email, as well as a link to their writer page here at RotoWire so you can check out all of their work.
Intro by Erik Halterman
Fantasy Baseball Busts: Hitters
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays (ADP 16)
He looks like he should hit 20-25 homers. Last year he hit 45. I don't see him coming close to that this season. The Rays are going back to Tropicana Field, which should result in a decrease, and Caminero is something of a groundball hitter. Hitters who hit so many balls on the ground typically don't put that many in the seats. — Brad Johnson
Cal Raleigh, C, Mariners (ADP 18)
Wise fantasy managers know not to buy into outlier seasons. Raleigh is a pure power hitter, but
his 60 home runs last year were nearly as many as he had in the 2023 and 2024 seasons
combined. A regression there, when combined with a low batting average and limited stolen
base production, makes Raleigh notably overpriced at his ADP. — KC Joyner
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs (ADP 32)
The likelihood of Crow-Armstrong being a mega-bust is low, but the likelihood of him paying off at his exorbitant cost might be even lower. Of the guys being taken within the top 30-ish picks, he has the most obvious flaws in his hitting profile. It's that type of player I want to avoid early. — Ryan Boyer
James Wood, OF, Nationals (ADP 34)
I really want to be in on Wood, who hit the ball so hard last year (56.3 percent hard hit rate) that he was able to overcome a 32.1 percent strikeout rate and still post a respectable .256 batting average to go with his 31 homers and 15 steals. But I can't ignore the fact that his strikeout rate spiked all the way to 39.0 percent in the second half as he hit just .223/.301/.338. Hitters as tall as the 6-foot-6 Wood can sometimes be late bloomers — see 6-foot-7 Aaron Judge, who was two years older than Wood is now when he first became a regular and didn't post a strikeout rate below 30 percent until his age-28 season — but I'm willing to take the chance that I'll miss out on Wood's breakout season if it means avoiding the risk that his contact continues to trend in the wrong direction. — Erik Halterman
Yordan Alvarez, DH, Astros (ADP 34)
Obviously, if he plays in 145-plus games he's a good pick in the third round, but we're not getting much of a discount considering he's UT-only and won't run. Even if he was a good bet to stay healthy, there's a roster construction case for going with a player at a different position, and of the hitters getting drafted in the top 50, he carries the most injury risk. — James Anderson
Brice Turang, 2B, Brewers (ADP 52)
It came down to Turang or Jose Altuve for this spot, but I'll err on the side of not picking against a future Hall of Famer. Turang is coming off a breakout offensive season in 2025, but his .356 BABIP ranked second among qualified hitters behind only Aaron Judge, and I'm skeptical about him continuing to ascend in the power department. He should remain an impactful real-life contributor for Milwaukee thanks to his defensive acumen and improvement at the plate, but the regression indicators are difficult to ignore and have me wary of Turang's value as a top-75 pick. — Jeremy Schneider
Byron Buxton, OF, Twins (ADP 71)
Buxton topped 100 games in a season for just the third time in his career last year. He was great, with 35 home runs and 24 stolen bases, but he comes with too much injury risk. I wouldn't be surprised if he plays fewer than 100 games. — Mike Barner
Agustin Ramirez, C, Marlins (ADP 83)
I understand the appeal, since Ramirez offers speed at a position that doesn't have many stolen base contributors, but it's tough to invest a top 150 pick on a player who could be back in the minors this summer. Ramirez's defense is poor and he can't throw out runners. Plus, Miami prospect Joe Mack is nearly ready to compete for playing time behind the plate. — Ryan Rufe
Oneil Cruz, OF, Pirates (ADP 93)
He's got plenty of tools, but all the karma seems to be negative. He swings and misses too much (30.2 percent strikeout rate), his lack of focus on the field may get him in the doghouse and the loss of shortstop eligibility makes him less appealing. The tools are tantalizing, but he's too expensive given the downside. — Peter Schoenke
George Springer, OF, Blue Jays (ADP 94)
Springer's resurgence in 2025 was well supported by strong underlying numbers, but the fact he's entering his age-36 season provides some reason for skepticism. Injuries haven't been much of an issue given that he's played in at least 133 regular-season games in four straight years and should continue seeing most of his time as a DH, but his career-best 166 wRC+ last year is going to result in some draft-day reaching as he likely comes back to earth. — Evan Hauge
Bo Bichette, SS/(3B), Mets (ADP 97)
The 28-year-old has basically every red flag you can think of working against him, from the pressure of a big free-agent contract to a position switch on a new team in a new league. Bichette also hasn't been healthy enough to play 140 games in a season since 2022. The batting average upside is enticing, but those risks aren't properly priced in at his current ADP. — Erik Siegrist
Alex Bregman, 3B, Cubs (ADP 119)
I don't really understand the Bregman hype. He hasn't hit more than 26 homers for six straight seasons and has never had more than three steals in any of those. Bregman is a good bet for some decent RBI and batting average, but the lack of speed and merely decent power makes him tough to trust in the Top 100. The move to Chicago is scary, too, because it's one of the worst parks for right-handed bats. — Joel Bartilotta
Yandy Diaz, 1B, Rays (ADP 136)
The .366 OBP for Diaz last season was not a surprise and was in fact below his career .372 number. The surprise was his 25 home runs, the second time in his career he's managed to get over 20. Diaz hit 18 of those homers at home, and last season, home for the Rays was the Yankees' spring training ballpark. Being back at the Trop likely means being back under 20 homers. — Chris Morgan
Munetaka Murakami, (1B)/3B, White Sox (ADP 208)
His raw power is undeniable, but his strikeout rate each of the past three seasons in the NPB was over 28 percent, so if you tack on an expected 20 percent increase to that, you have the 2026 version of Michael Toglia. Hitters arriving from overseas are always a risky situation when they're not named Shohei Ohtani, but for comparison's sake, Kazuma Okamoto had strikeout rates below 20 percent for the past five seasons in the NPB, yet both players are within a round of one another by recent ADP. Give me the latter over the former all day long. — Jason Collette
